Updated Sep. 24, 2017 at 12:05 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Cardinals have a 21% chance of making the playoffs.twitter bird

Their team rating is 1528, up 3 points from last week.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
CubsCubs86-68>99%97%
BrewersBrewers82-734.529%<1%
CardinalsCardinals81-735.021%2%
RedsReds66-8920.5
PiratesPirates70-8516.5

Upcoming games

Gant vs. Taillon

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-130
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151498

vs. Cubs

Weaver vs. Lester

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15691538

Martinez vs. Arrieta

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15691564

Wacha vs. Lackey

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15501542

Lynn vs. Hendricks

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15531571

Gant vs. Anderson

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15391531

Weaver vs. Wilkerson

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15721493

Martinez vs. Davies

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15691522

Team rating

Starting pitchers

Pitcher score Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to
team rating
Luke Weaver
Luke Weaver54.0+20
Carlos Martinez
Carlos Martinez53.2+17
Lance Lynn
Lance Lynn49.9+1
Michael Wacha
Michael Wacha49.2-2
John Gant
John Gant47.0-13

Completed games

L, 11-6

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15311471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15411511

W, 4-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15301472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+26
Adjusted team rating15221494

at Reds

W, 8-5

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281459
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15451485

W, 9-2

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251461
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15421472

W, 8-7

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241463
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+26
Adjusted team rating15031492

at Cubs

L, 4-3

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15371583

L, 4-1

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15271547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15211590

L, 8-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15301544
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15491564

vs. Reds

W, 5-2

69%

31%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15291458
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15631423

L, 6-0

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331454
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15371462

W, 13-4

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15301457
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15701465

W, 7-0

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281482
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15391475

W, 4-3

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15271483
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15731490

W, 4-1

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+20-3
Adjusted team rating15531488

L, 3-0

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281455
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15461470

W, 3-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15261457
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15071507

W, 8-4

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241459
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141474

W, 2-0

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15221461
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15371480

W, 7-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191462
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+39
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15251525

L, 2-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15211461
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15361498

W, 11-6

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15181463
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081495

W, 5-2

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161465
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-34
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+22
Adjusted team rating15021453

L, 6-5

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15181497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15401543

W, 10-2

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+22
Adjusted team rating15181499

vs. Rays

L, 3-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15541519

W, 6-4

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15201497

L, 7-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15351476

vs. Padres

L, 4-3

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191452
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15641446

W, 6-2

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171454
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15341474

L, 12-4

67%

33%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15231448
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-2
Adjusted team rating15611437

L, 6-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121513

L, 6-4

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15271484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15261511

W, 11-10

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15261486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15471520

W, 11-7

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15231488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating15131515

L, 5-4

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15351575

L, 10-4

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15271550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15151561

vs. Braves

L, 6-3

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15301469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15541482

W, 6-5

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15291470
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15721473

W, 8-5

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15271471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15401482

vs. Royals

W, 8-6

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15261496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15611502

W, 8-5

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating15371477

W, 10-3

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15201502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15191535

W, 11-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15291536

at Reds

W, 13-4

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121446
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15041478

W, 4-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101448
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+33
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15191505

L, 3-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121447
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating15011465

L, 2-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121510

W, 5-4

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14931529

L, 3-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+26
Adjusted team rating15291536

W, 3-2

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15461524

L, 7-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151525
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15311548

W, 1-0

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131526
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321532

L, 4-0

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15231518

W, 10-5

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15571504

W, 3-2

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15431518

W, 8-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091516
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-3
Adjusted team rating15191507

at Cubs

L, 5-3

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111542
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081584

L, 3-2

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121541
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15011576

W, 11-4

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+23
Adjusted team rating15281578

at Mets

L, 3-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+60
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151519

L, 7-3

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+33
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15071550

W, 5-0

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971498

W, 6-3

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14951516

L, 4-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15301522

W, 4-0

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081547

L, 5-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+6+31
Adjusted team rating15121530

vs. Mets

W, 6-0

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15271527

W, 4-1

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15141491

L, 6-5

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+31+30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24+2
Adjusted team rating15571532

W, 4-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15131472

L, 9-6

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15371496

L, 5-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15291493

W, 14-6

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15141477

L, 7-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+34+52
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15631600

W, 2-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15071547

W, 8-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15261524

W, 10-4

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-37
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14951521

W, 4-3

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14811556

L, 6-5

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+360
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15291559

vs. Reds

W, 8-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931459
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-22+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating14951484

W, 8-4

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14911495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15241488

L, 7-3

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15221499

L, 4-3

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating14991511

L, 5-1

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981425
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+40+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15381454

W, 7-6

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971427
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-200
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14771451

W, 8-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941430
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+1+26
Adjusted team rating15001455

L, 8-5

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081508

L, 15-7

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001482
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14891510

W, 11-2

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+34-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15271506

L, 6-4

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15011492

L, 7-6

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15271477

L, 8-5

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-23-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15031489

W, 6-0

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15301474

W, 6-5

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981437
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15101445

W, 7-0

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961439
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15471430

W, 3-2

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951440
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-23+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating14941444

at Reds

L, 5-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15031513

L, 6-4

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15041495

L, 13-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041470
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14991507

L, 4-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061468
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15281495

at Cubs

L, 7-6

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14891593

L, 5-3

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081544
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131591

L, 3-2

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091543
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating15081561

W, 2-0

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071570
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15211564

W, 2-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061571
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-31
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15501540

L, 9-4

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081569
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15181555

L, 5-1

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111566
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-4
Adjusted team rating15391571

L, 8-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131515
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15161537

W, 3-0

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14941526

L, 10-0

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+20
Adjusted team rating15301526

L, 7-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171557
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15091569

W, 6-1

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131561
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15171599

L, 2-1

33%

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141560
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+51
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+26
Adjusted team rating15121637

vs. Giants

W, 8-3

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15191468

L, 3-1

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15521496

L, 6-5

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-2
Adjusted team rating15351483

L, 5-4

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171532
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15471537

L, 6-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191530
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15481532

vs. Cubs

W, 5-0

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161556
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15221560

W, 5-3

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141558
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15551583

L, 3-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151556
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-50
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-1
Adjusted team rating15461505

W, 7-5

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15221506

W, 6-5

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14931534

W, 9-4

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15231520

W, 6-4

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071465
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14991490

W, 5-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111512

W, 10-0

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+26
Adjusted team rating15051503

L, 5-4

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021483
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15141497

W, 2-1

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15391476

L, 7-5

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031482
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15201482

vs. Reds

L, 5-4

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15371472

W, 7-5

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15331479

W, 6-4

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15141470

W, 8-4

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15411479

L, 6-5

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-4
Adjusted team rating15161522

W, 6-4

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15041490

W, 4-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971483
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15001515

W, 6-3

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-130
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14821509

L, 7-5

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+23
Adjusted team rating15161505

W, 2-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15091499

W, 2-1

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15221501

W, 2-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15131506

L, 9-3

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14871548

L, 3-2

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15201547

L, 4-3

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14901554

W, 6-1

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941543
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14921602

L, 8-3

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961540
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14991550

L, 14-6

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991537
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating14921563

vs. Reds

L, 8-0

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041468
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+26-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15541466

W, 10-4

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15111473

L, 2-0

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15191459

vs. Cubs

L, 6-4

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051572
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15331574

L, 2-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061571
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15281586

W, 4-3

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041572
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24+29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15521599

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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