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The Nationals are done for the season.
Team rating
Starting pitchers
| Pitcher score | Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to team rating | ||
|---|---|---|---|
 | Stephen Strasburg | 62.5 | +41 |
 | Max Scherzer | 61.6 | +37 |
 | Gio Gonzalez | 53.0 | -3 |
 | Tanner Roark | 50.3 | -16 |
 | Edwin Jackson | 41.3 | -59 |
Completed games
L, 9-8
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1558 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | +24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1573 | 1579 |
W, 5-0
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1548 | 1562 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +37 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +2 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1587 | 1592 |
L, 2-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1550 | 1560 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +36 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +23 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1585 | 1596 |
W, 6-3
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1547 | 1563 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | -8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1573 | 1555 |
L, 3-0
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1551 | 1559 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +35 | +22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +33 | +6 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1619 | 1587 |
L, 11-8
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1554 | 1483 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1586 | 1479 |
L, 4-1
69%
31%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1480 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +36 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1618 | 1482 |
W, 6-1
66%
34%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1482 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +31 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1611 | 1495 |
W, 5-4
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1483 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -60 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1517 | 1476 |
L, 7-5
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1557 | 1463 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1548 | 1476 |
L, 4-1
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1560 | 1460 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +11 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1571 | 1470 |
W, 3-1
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1462 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -30 | +31 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1527 | 1514 |
W, 3-2
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1557 | 1464 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +35 | +39 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1592 | 1527 |
W, 4-3
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1465 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +33 | +55 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1589 | 1544 |
L, 7-6
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1557 | 1464 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -59 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +23 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1495 | 1477 |
L, 3-2
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1559 | 1470 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1547 | 1495 |
W, 7-3
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1557 | 1472 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +9 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1566 | 1490 |
W, 4-2
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1473 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +34 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1589 | 1501 |
W, 7-1
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1568 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +32 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1609 | 1553 |
L, 3-2
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1567 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -29 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1550 | 1580 |
L, 7-0
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1563 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -52 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1530 | 1562 |
W, 5-2
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1480 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1565 | 1483 |
L, 8-2
71%
29%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1561 | 1474 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +38 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1623 | 1471 |
L, 8-0
67%
33%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1567 | 1469 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1603 | 1479 |
W, 3-2
71%
29%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1566 | 1450 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +23 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1613 | 1455 |
L, 5-4
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1568 | 1448 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -48 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1544 | 1436 |
W, 11-10
76%
24%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1568 | 1449 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +42 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1634 | 1436 |
W, 4-3
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1567 | 1450 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | +27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1572 | 1475 |
W, 8-1
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1564 | 1491 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1572 | 1529 |
W, 2-1
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1563 | 1492 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1582 | 1516 |
W, 7-2
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1560 | 1495 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -33 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1524 | 1525 |
L, 7-2
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1563 | 1501 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -49 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1514 | 1515 |
W, 3-2
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1562 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +42 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1604 | 1526 |
L, 1-0
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1563 | 1501 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1544 | 1533 |
L, 6-3
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1566 | 1498 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1575 | 1534 |
W, 4-0
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1564 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1602 | 1510 |
W, 8-3
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1561 | 1505 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -48 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1537 | 1503 |
W, 11-2
66%
34%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1559 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +43 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1626 | 1514 |
W, 5-4
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1485 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -20 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1562 | 1485 |
L, 6-5
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1560 | 1484 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -47 | -20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1537 | 1464 |
W, 9-4
68%
32%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1485 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | -17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1596 | 1468 |
L, 4-2
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1560 | 1483 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -38 | +38 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1543 | 1519 |
W, 5-4
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1562 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +11 | +22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1569 | 1608 |
L, 6-1
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1561 | 1560 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -48 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1513 | 1574 |
W, 4-3
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1559 | 1561 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -22 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1536 | 1590 |
W, 4-1
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1557 | 1450 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | +21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1571 | 1495 |
L, 3-1
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1560 | 1447 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | -8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1572 | 1463 |
W, 7-1
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1557 | 1450 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -29 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1528 | 1469 |
W, 2-1
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1451 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -50 | +19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1502 | 1494 |
L, 3-2
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1517 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -21 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1561 | 1503 |
W, 3-1
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1518 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +13 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1595 | 1523 |
W, 6-2
72%
28%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +45 | -18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1624 | 1458 |
L, 4-2
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1473 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -38 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1544 | 1463 |
W, 3-1
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -52 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | +1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1530 | 1463 |
W, 3-2
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1497 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -21 | +17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1558 | 1514 |
W, 10-1
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1552 | 1500 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +11 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1587 | 1505 |
L, 7-3
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1497 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -37 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1542 | 1500 |
W, 3-2
68%
32%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1554 | 1498 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +45 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1620 | 1491 |
W, 9-4
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1551 | 1545 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -39 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1512 | 1582 |
L, 7-4
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1552 | 1544 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -55 | -8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1497 | 1560 |
W, 4-2
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1550 | 1546 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -22 | +19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1527 | 1589 |
L, 7-0
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1554 | 1496 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -32 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1522 | 1518 |
L, 7-6
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1495 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +46 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1602 | 1528 |
W, 1-0
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1554 | 1496 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1555 | 1523 |
W, 3-1
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1552 | 1515 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -61 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1515 | 1520 |
L, 10-6
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -30 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1549 | 1512 |
L, 4-2
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -22 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | +2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1562 | 1523 |
W, 15-2
69%
31%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +46 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1625 | 1488 |
W, 8-5
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1578 | 1512 |
L, 8-0
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1557 | 1499 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -58 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1521 | 1493 |
W, 6-2
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1524 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1567 | 1558 |
W, 4-3
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1525 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -28 | -20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1525 | 1529 |
L, 6-5
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1524 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +53 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +20 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1608 | 1541 |
L, 7-0
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1559 | 1501 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1561 | 1526 |
W, 4-3
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -63 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1517 |
W, 6-1
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1459 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | +27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1563 | 1510 |
W, 14-4
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1551 | 1463 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -31 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1520 | 1501 |
W, 10-7
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1550 | 1464 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +53 | +22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1603 | 1510 |
W, 5-0
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1547 | 1467 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +7 | +29 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1553 | 1505 |
W, 10-5
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1545 | 1477 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -24 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1545 | 1480 |
L, 13-0
66%
34%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1470 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +16 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1593 | 1474 |
W, 5-4
71%
29%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1552 | 1470 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +54 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1630 | 1477 |
L, 5-2
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1467 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1580 | 1476 |
W, 11-4
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1552 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -26 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1550 | 1504 |
W, 3-2
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1551 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | +23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1584 | 1525 |
W, 7-2
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1548 | 1505 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +52 | +34 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1600 | 1563 |
L, 2-1
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1550 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | -21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1547 | 1507 |
L, 8-1
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1500 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -26 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1524 | 1526 |
L, 5-4
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1543 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -26 | +23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1553 | 1566 |
W, 8-4
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1545 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +11 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1588 | 1540 |
W, 6-1
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1550 | 1548 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +51 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1625 | 1555 |
L, 5-4
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1552 | 1546 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -4 | -37 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1572 | 1506 |
L, 6-2
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1455 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -21 | +21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1559 | 1476 |
W, 18-3
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1551 | 1460 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -28 | +27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1547 | 1487 |
W, 6-5
66%
34%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1550 | 1461 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1590 | 1471 |
L, 2-1
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1552 | 1495 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +48 | +26 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1600 | 1545 |
W, 12-3
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1548 | 1499 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1543 | 1527 |
L, 8-7
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1549 | 1497 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1531 | 1504 |
L, 5-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1552 | 1498 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -28 | +16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1524 | 1538 |
W, 7-4
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1550 | 1500 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1567 | 1533 |
W, 7-2
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1547 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +44 | +22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1591 | 1549 |
W, 8-3
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1545 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1515 |
L, 13-2
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1551 | 1463 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1566 | 1472 |
W, 10-5
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1549 | 1465 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -25 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1548 | 1463 |
L, 11-10
67%
33%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1551 | 1463 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +21 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1596 | 1471 |
L, 5-1
67%
33%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1511 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +41 | -17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1620 | 1494 |
L, 6-3
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1567 | 1499 |
L, 5-2
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1561 | 1505 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1580 | 1489 |
W, 6-1
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -32 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +20 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1546 | 1509 |
L, 2-1
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1559 | 1564 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +22 | +48 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1581 | 1636 |
W, 2-1
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1565 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +39 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1597 | 1580 |
W, 4-2
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1567 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | -27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +20 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1539 | 1560 |
W, 11-10
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1552 | 1493 |
L, 10-4
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1559 | 1471 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -25 | -27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1534 | 1468 |
W, 13-3
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1474 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +22 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +1 | +20 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1579 | 1502 |
W, 3-1
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1554 | 1494 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +35 | -34 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1589 | 1484 |
W, 6-3
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1552 | 1496 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1537 | 1524 |
W, 3-0
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1550 | 1498 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1540 | 1510 |
L, 5-3
67%
33%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1430 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -18 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1559 | 1436 |
W, 3-0
72%
28%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1552 | 1431 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1594 | 1432 |
W, 5-1
73%
27%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1551 | 1432 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +32 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1607 | 1429 |
L, 4-2
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1505 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1562 | 1509 |
W, 5-1
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1551 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1567 | 1507 |
W, 10-1
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1548 | 1511 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1552 | 1499 |
W, 3-2
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1547 | 1474 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1565 | 1495 |
L, 5-2
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1550 | 1471 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +38 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1588 | 1491 |
L, 7-4
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1552 | 1469 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1540 | 1495 |
L, 10-4
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1489 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | -36 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1555 | 1477 |
L, 6-1
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1559 | 1487 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -59 | +20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1500 | 1531 |
W, 8-4
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1557 | 1489 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +16 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1573 | 1502 |
W, 6-5
70%
30%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1464 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +37 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1617 | 1466 |
L, 4-3
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1462 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1568 | 1474 |
W, 6-4
69%
31%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1557 | 1463 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | -19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +29 | +3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1587 | 1447 |
W, 7-6
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1518 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1597 | 1519 |
L, 5-4
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1516 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +35 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1593 | 1530 |
L, 6-4
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1560 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1550 | 1536 |
L, 6-5
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1562 | 1465 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1560 | 1501 |
W, 6-2
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1559 | 1468 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -35 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1524 | 1491 |
W, 4-2
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1469 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | -17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1574 | 1473 |
W, 4-2
68%
32%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1557 | 1502 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +31 | -17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1612 | 1485 |
W, 2-1
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1556 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1572 | 1508 |
L, 6-3
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1559 | 1500 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1586 | 1503 |
W, 23-5
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | +29 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1558 | 1543 |
L, 5-3
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1555 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1597 | 1499 |
L, 7-5
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1558 | 1509 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +35 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +20 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1613 | 1520 |
W, 16-5
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1553 | 1491 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1542 | 1523 |
W, 11-4
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1550 | 1494 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1549 | 1525 |
W, 15-12
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1548 | 1496 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | -16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1531 | 1504 |
L, 8-4
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1550 | 1494 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -67 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1479 | 1530 |
W, 6-3
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1549 | 1517 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +35 | -17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1584 | 1524 |
W, 3-1
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1547 | 1519 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1533 | 1555 |
W, 4-3
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1545 | 1520 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1543 | 1538 |
W, 3-2
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1544 | 1471 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1561 | 1494 |
W, 14-4
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1540 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | +30 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1523 | 1529 |
W, 3-1
61%
39%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1538 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +34 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1571 | 1495 |
W, 6-4
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1537 | 1459 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | +18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1548 | 1477 |
L, 4-2
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1539 | 1456 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1564 | 1471 |
W, 3-2
68%
32%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1539 | 1457 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +18 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1583 | 1453 |
L, 6-1
65%
35%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1543 | 1494 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +35 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1602 | 1492 |
W, 8-3
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1540 | 1496 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1550 | 1499 |
W, 14-6
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1537 | 1499 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1563 | 1492 |
L, 4-3
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1539 | 1462 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +17 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1556 | 1497 |
L, 17-3
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1545 | 1456 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -57 | -6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1488 | 1474 |
W, 7-6
63%
37%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1544 | 1457 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +32 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1574 | 1482 |
L, 4-3
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1546 | 1497 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -19 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1551 | 1492 |
W, 6-4
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1544 | 1498 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | +2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1571 | 1517 |
W, 4-2
64%
36%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1543 | 1500 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +15 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1582 | 1485 |
NL East standings
| Games back | Chance to make playoffs | Make playoffs | Chance to win division | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | NationalsNationals97-65 | — | ✓ | ✓ | ||
 | MarlinsMarlins77-85 | 20.0 | — | — | ||
 | BravesBraves72-90 | 25.0 | — | — | ||
 | MetsMets70-92 | 27.0 | — | — | ||
 | PhilliesPhillies66-96 | 31.0 | — | — |
This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »
For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »
Design and development by Jay Boice and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
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