Updated May 22, 2022, at 3:09 PM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Cardinals have a 2% chance of winning the World Series.

NL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Brewers Brewers26-14	—	91%	77%
Cardinals Cardinals23-18	3.5	54%	21%
Cubs Cubs15-24	10.5	5%	1%
Reds Reds11-28	14.5	3%	<1%
Pirates Pirates16-24	10.0	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/23Monday, May 237:45 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1546	+3	–3	=1546	50%
5/23Monday, May 237:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1511	+17	+21	=1549	50%
5/24Tuesday, May 247:45 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1546	+18	+0	=1564	54%
5/24Tuesday, May 247:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	46%
5/26Thursday, May 267:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1547	–4	–4	=1539	47%
5/26Thursday, May 267:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1511	+26	+26	=1563	53%
5/27Friday, May 278:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1547	+1	+0	=1548	52%
5/27Friday, May 278:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1511	+0	+24	=1535	48%
5/28Saturday, May 282:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1547	+7	+0	=1554	54%
5/28Saturday, May 282:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1511	–10	+24	=1525	46%
5/29Sunday, May 292:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1547	–18	+0	=1529	47%
5/29Sunday, May 292:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1511	+17	+24	=1552	53%
5/30Monday, May 302:15 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1541	+0	–4	=1537	50%
5/30Monday, May 302:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	50%
5/31Tuesday, May 317:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1541	+2	+0	=1543	48%
5/31Tuesday, May 317:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1511	+26	+24	=1561	52%
6/1Wednesday, June 11:15 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1541	–1	+0	=1540	51%
6/1Wednesday, June 11:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1511	+0	+24	=1535	49%
6/2Thursday, June 28:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–2	=1510	51%
6/2Thursday, June 28:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	49%
6/3Friday, June 32:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	52%
6/3Friday, June 32:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	48%
6/4Saturday, June 41:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	52%
6/4Saturday, June 41:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	48%
6/4Saturday, June 47:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	52%
6/4Saturday, June 47:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	48%
6/5Sunday, June 57 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	52%
6/5Sunday, June 57 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	48%
6/7Tuesday, June 77:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–1	=1511	43%
6/7Tuesday, June 77:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+26	=1558	57%
6/8Wednesday, June 87:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	44%
6/8Wednesday, June 87:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	56%
6/9Thursday, June 91:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	44%
6/9Thursday, June 91:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	56%
6/10Friday, June 108:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	–2	=1478	42%
6/10Friday, June 108:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+21	=1533	58%
6/11Saturday, June 112:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+0	=1480	42%
6/11Saturday, June 112:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	58%
6/12Sunday, June 122:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+0	=1480	42%
6/12Sunday, June 122:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	58%
6/13Monday, June 137:45 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	–2	=1432	35%
6/13Monday, June 137:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	65%
6/14Tuesday, June 141:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	36%
6/14Tuesday, June 141:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	64%
6/14Tuesday, June 147:45 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	36%
6/14Tuesday, June 147:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	64%
6/15Wednesday, June 157:45 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	36%
6/15Wednesday, June 157:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	64%
6/17Friday, June 177:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–1	=1511	45%
6/17Friday, June 177:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	55%
6/18Saturday, June 187:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	45%
6/18Saturday, June 187:15 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	55%
6/19Sunday, June 191:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	45%
6/19Sunday, June 191:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	55%
6/20Monday, June 208:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–3	=1509	41%
6/20Monday, June 208:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+22	=1570	59%
6/21Tuesday, June 218:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	41%
6/21Tuesday, June 218:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	59%
6/22Wednesday, June 228:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	41%
6/22Wednesday, June 228:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	59%
6/23Thursday, June 232:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	41%
6/23Thursday, June 232:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	59%
6/24Friday, June 248:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	–3	=1473	41%
6/24Friday, June 248:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+22	=1534	59%
6/25Saturday, June 252:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+0	=1476	42%
6/25Saturday, June 252:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	58%
6/26Sunday, June 262:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+0	=1476	42%
6/26Sunday, June 262:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	58%
6/27Monday, June 277:45 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–3	=1489	43%
6/27Monday, June 277:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	57%
6/28Tuesday, June 287:45 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	44%
6/28Tuesday, June 287:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	56%
6/29Wednesday, June 297:45 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	44%
6/29Wednesday, June 297:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	56%
7/1Friday, July 16:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–1	=1511	45%
7/1Friday, July 16:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	55%
7/2Saturday, July 24:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	45%
7/2Saturday, July 24:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	55%
7/3Sunday, July 37 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	45%
7/3Sunday, July 37 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	55%
7/4Monday, July 47:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–3	=1509	42%
7/4Monday, July 47:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+22	=1563	58%
7/5Tuesday, July 57:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	42%
7/5Tuesday, July 57:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	58%
7/6Wednesday, July 67:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	42%
7/6Wednesday, July 67:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	58%
7/7Thursday, July 77:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	42%
7/7Thursday, July 77:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	58%
7/8Friday, July 88:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	–3	=1517	48%
7/8Friday, July 88:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+22	=1534	52%
7/9Saturday, July 92:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	48%
7/9Saturday, July 92:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	52%
7/10Sunday, July 102:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	48%
7/10Sunday, July 102:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	52%
7/11Monday, July 117:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	48%
7/11Monday, July 117:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	52%
7/12Tuesday, July 127:45 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	–2	=1590	58%
7/12Tuesday, July 127:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	42%
7/13Wednesday, July 137:45 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+0	=1592	58%
7/13Wednesday, July 137:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	42%
7/14Thursday, July 147:15 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+0	=1592	58%
7/14Thursday, July 147:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	42%
7/15Friday, July 158:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	–3	=1477	42%
7/15Friday, July 158:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	58%
7/16Saturday, July 162:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+0	=1480	42%
7/16Saturday, July 162:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	58%
7/17Sunday, July 172:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+0	=1480	42%
7/17Sunday, July 172:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	58%
7/22Friday, July 226:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+5	=1517	51%
7/22Friday, July 226:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+29	=1509	49%
7/23Saturday, July 236:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	51%
7/23Saturday, July 236:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	49%
7/24Sunday, July 241:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	51%
7/24Sunday, July 241:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	49%
7/26Tuesday, July 267:07 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	42%
7/26Tuesday, July 267:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	58%
7/27Wednesday, July 277:07 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	42%
7/27Wednesday, July 277:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	58%
7/29Friday, July 297:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	55%
7/29Friday, July 297:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+22	=1478	45%
7/30Saturday, July 307:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	54%
7/30Saturday, July 307:15 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	46%
7/31Sunday, July 311:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	54%
7/31Sunday, July 311:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	46%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 27:45 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	–2	=1474	41%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 27:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+23	=1535	59%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 37:45 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+0	=1476	42%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 37:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	58%
8/4Thursday, Aug. 47:45 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+0	=1476	42%
8/4Thursday, Aug. 47:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	58%
8/5Friday, Aug. 58:15 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	–1	=1574	55%
8/5Friday, Aug. 58:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	45%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 67:15 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+0	=1575	55%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 67:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	45%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 72:15 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+0	=1575	55%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 72:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	45%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 98:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–1	=1511	54%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 98:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+23	=1485	46%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 108:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	54%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 108:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+24	=1486	46%
8/11Thursday, Aug. 113:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	54%
8/11Thursday, Aug. 113:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+24	=1486	46%
8/12Friday, Aug. 128:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	52%
8/12Friday, Aug. 128:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+21	=1533	48%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 137:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	52%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 137:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	48%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 142:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	52%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 142:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	48%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:45 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	–1	=1461	39%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+26	=1538	61%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 177:45 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+0	=1462	40%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 177:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	60%
8/18Thursday, Aug. 181:15 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+0	=1462	40%
8/18Thursday, Aug. 181:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	60%
8/19Friday, Aug. 199:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–3	=1509	53%
8/19Friday, Aug. 199:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1466	+0	+21	=1487	47%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 208:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	53%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 208:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1466	+0	+24	=1490	47%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 214:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	53%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 214:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1466	+0	+24	=1490	47%
8/22Monday, Aug. 228:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–4	=1508	51%
8/22Monday, Aug. 228:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	49%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 232:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	52%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 232:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	48%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 238:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	52%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 238:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	48%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 248:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	52%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 248:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	48%
8/25Thursday, Aug. 252:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	52%
8/25Thursday, Aug. 252:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	48%
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–1	=1540	51%
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+22	=1534	49%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	51%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	49%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	51%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	49%
8/29Monday, Aug. 296:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–2	=1510	51%
8/29Monday, Aug. 296:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+22	=1502	49%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 306:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	51%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 306:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	49%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 316:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	51%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 316:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	49%
9/2Friday, Sept. 28:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	–1	=1475	41%
9/2Friday, Sept. 28:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	59%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 37:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+0	=1476	42%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 37:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	58%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 42:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+0	=1476	42%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 42:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	58%
9/5Monday, Sept. 54:15 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	–3	=1453	38%
9/5Monday, Sept. 54:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	62%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 67:45 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+0	=1456	39%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 67:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	61%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 77:45 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+0	=1456	39%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 77:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	61%
9/8Thursday, Sept. 81:15 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+0	=1456	39%
9/8Thursday, Sept. 81:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	61%
9/9Friday, Sept. 96:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–3	=1509	57%
9/9Friday, Sept. 96:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+26	=1460	43%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 106:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	58%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 106:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	42%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 111:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	58%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 111:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	42%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 137:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	52%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 137:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+23	=1535	48%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 147:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	52%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 147:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	48%
9/15Thursday, Sept. 157:45 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	–2	=1478	42%
9/15Thursday, Sept. 157:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	58%
9/16Friday, Sept. 168:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+0	=1480	42%
9/16Friday, Sept. 168:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	58%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 177:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+0	=1480	42%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 177:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	58%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 182:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+0	=1480	42%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 182:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	58%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 209:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–2	=1510	42%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 209:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1541	+0	+24	=1565	58%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 219:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	42%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 219:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1541	+0	+24	=1565	58%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 224:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	42%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 224:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1541	+0	+24	=1565	58%
9/23Friday, Sept. 2310:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–1	=1511	35%
9/23Friday, Sept. 2310:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+24	=1616	65%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 249:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	36%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 249:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+24	=1616	64%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 254:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	36%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 254:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+24	=1616	64%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–2	=1510	41%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	59%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	41%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	59%
9/30Friday, Sept. 308:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	–1	=1433	36%
9/30Friday, Sept. 308:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	64%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 17:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	36%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 17:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	64%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	36%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	64%
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–3	=1509	58%
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+21	=1455	42%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	58%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	42%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	58%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	42%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
5/22Sunday, May 2211:35 a.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1508	–10	+0	=1498	57%	18
5/22Sunday, May 2211:35 a.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Wilson	1436	–10	+24	=1450	43%	4
5/21Saturday, May 216:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Liberatore	1507	–19	+0	=1488	52%	5
5/21Saturday, May 216:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Quintana	1437	+12	+24	=1473	48%	4
5/20Friday, May 206:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1506	+25	–2	=1529	59%	5
5/20Friday, May 206:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Thompson	1438	+6	+24	=1468	41%	3
5/19Thursday, May 191:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1506	+1	+0	=1507	41%	6
5/19Thursday, May 191:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Bassitt	1535	+12	+24	=1571	59%	7
5/18Wednesday, May 187:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hicks	1508	–16	+0	=1492	37%	4
5/18Wednesday, May 187:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Scherzer	1533	+31	+24	=1588	63%	11
5/17Tuesday, May 176:50 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1507	–12	+0	=1495	45%	4
5/17Tuesday, May 176:50 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Walker	1534	–27	+24	=1531	55%	3
5/17Tuesday, May 173:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1508	+17	–1	=1524	52%	1
5/17Tuesday, May 173:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Williams	1533	–45	+26	=1514	48%	3
5/15Sunday, May 157 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Rodon	1528	+28	+0	=1556	50%	6
5/15Sunday, May 157 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1505	+24	+24	=1553	50%	15
5/14Saturday, May 142:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Junis	1529	–27	+0	=1502	47%	0
5/14Saturday, May 142:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1503	+0	+24	=1527	53%	4
5/13Friday, May 138:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1527	+11	–2	=1536	54%	8
5/13Friday, May 138:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hicks	1506	–18	+24	=1512	46%	2
5/12Thursday, May 121:15 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Baker	1436	–7	+0	=1429	37%	3
5/12Thursday, May 121:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1507	–11	+24	=1520	63%	2
5/11Wednesday, May 117:45 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1437	–23	+0	=1414	32%	1
5/11Wednesday, May 117:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1505	+16	+24	=1545	68%	10
5/10Tuesday, May 107:45 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1436	–9	–3	=1424	39%	5
5/10Tuesday, May 107:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Naughton	1507	–31	+22	=1498	61%	3
5/8Sunday, May 84:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1508	+3	+0	=1511	49%	3
5/8Sunday, May 84:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Junis	1521	–27	+24	=1518	51%	4
5/7Saturday, May 77:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1510	–3	+0	=1507	43%	7
5/7Saturday, May 77:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1519	+14	+24	=1557	57%	13
5/6Friday, May 610:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hicks	1509	–25	+0	=1484	44%	3
5/6Friday, May 610:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cobb	1520	–16	+24	=1528	56%	2
5/5Thursday, May 59:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1506	+13	–4	=1515	50%	7
5/5Thursday, May 59:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Llovera	1523	–30	+22	=1515	50%	1
5/4Wednesday, May 41:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1504	+18	+0	=1522	57%	10
5/4Wednesday, May 41:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1465	–13	+24	=1476	43%	0
5/3Tuesday, May 38:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1506	+4	–2	=1508	52%	1
5/3Tuesday, May 38:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1462	+11	+22	=1495	48%	7
5/2Monday, May 21:15 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1463	+11	–2	=1472	43%	0
5/2Monday, May 21:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1505	–6	+24	=1523	57%	1
5/1Sunday, May 12:15 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Davies	1461	–33	+0	=1428	39%	5
5/1Sunday, May 12:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hicks	1504	–21	+24	=1507	61%	7
4/30Saturday, April 302:15 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Kelly	1459	+13	+0	=1472	40%	2
4/30Saturday, April 302:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1506	+12	+24	=1542	60%	0
4/29Friday, April 298:15 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Bumgarner	1457	+3	+0	=1460	37%	6
4/29Friday, April 298:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1509	+20	+24	=1553	63%	2
4/28Thursday, April 287:45 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Castellanos	1458	–14	–3	=1441	37%	3
4/28Thursday, April 287:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1507	+1	+24	=1532	63%	8
4/27Wednesday, April 271:15 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Carrasco	1535	–18	+0	=1517	49%	5
4/27Wednesday, April 271:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1505	–4	+24	=1525	51%	10
4/26Tuesday, April 267:45 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Bassitt	1533	+5	+0	=1538	54%	3
4/26Tuesday, April 267:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hicks	1507	–19	+24	=1512	46%	0
4/25Monday, April 257:45 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Scherzer	1532	+29	–3	=1558	53%	5
4/25Monday, April 257:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1508	+9	+22	=1539	47%	2
4/24Sunday, April 241:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1510	+24	+0	=1534	56%	1
4/24Sunday, April 241:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1484	–16	+24	=1492	44%	4
4/23Saturday, April 234:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1508	–3	+0	=1505	47%	5
4/23Saturday, April 234:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1486	+15	+24	=1525	53%	0
4/22Friday, April 226:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1506	–4	–3	=1499	49%	4
4/22Friday, April 226:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1488	–5	+22	=1505	51%	2
4/21Thursday, April 216:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hicks	1508	–18	+0	=1490	45%	0
4/21Thursday, April 216:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1487	+11	+24	=1522	55%	5
4/20Wednesday, April 206:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1507	+7	+0	=1514	48%	2
4/20Wednesday, April 206:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1488	+18	+24	=1530	52%	0
4/19Tuesday, April 196:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1505	+27	–1	=1531	55%	5
4/19Tuesday, April 196:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1490	–22	+26	=1494	45%	1
4/17Sunday, April 172:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1506	+0	+0	=1506	48%	5
4/17Sunday, April 172:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Ashby	1534	–38	+24	=1520	52%	6
4/16Saturday, April 167:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1505	–8	+0	=1497	43%	2
4/16Saturday, April 167:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1535	–16	+24	=1543	57%	1
4/15Friday, April 158:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1501	+4	+0	=1505	41%	10
4/15Friday, April 158:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1539	+1	+24	=1564	59%	1
4/14Thursday, April 145:14 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1503	+32	+0	=1535	45%	1
4/14Thursday, April 145:14 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1537	+10	+21	=1568	55%	5
4/12Tuesday, April 127:45 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1468	–11	–2	=1455	39%	5
4/12Tuesday, April 127:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1502	+4	+26	=1532	61%	6
4/10Sunday, April 102:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Wilson	1443	+0	+0	=1443	38%	9
4/10Sunday, April 102:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1505	–2	+24	=1527	62%	4
4/9Saturday, April 92:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1444	–5	+2	=1441	37%	2
4/9Saturday, April 92:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1503	+3	+26	=1532	63%	6
4/7Thursday, April 74:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1446	+2	–3	=1445	35%	0
4/7Thursday, April 74:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1501	+28	+24	=1553	65%	9

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.