Updated May 15, 2022, at 10:19 PM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Padres have a 5% chance of winning the World Series.

NL West standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Dodgers Dodgers21-12	—	97%	70%
Padres Padres22-13	—	81%	20%
Giants Giants20-14	1.5	62%	9%
Dbacks Diamondbacks18-17	4.0	7%	<1%
Rockies Rockies17-17	4.5	5%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/17Tuesday, May 176:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Clevinger	1538	+21	–1	=1558	52%
5/17Tuesday, May 176:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+0	+22	=1546	48%
5/18Wednesday, May 186:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1538	+7	+0	=1545	46%
5/18Wednesday, May 186:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1524	+24	+24	=1572	54%
5/19Thursday, May 191:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1538	–4	+0	=1534	50%
5/19Thursday, May 191:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Gibson	1524	–11	+24	=1537	50%
5/20Friday, May 2010:15 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Martinez	1538	–42	–4	=1492	45%
5/20Friday, May 2010:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Junis	1524	–24	+23	=1523	55%
5/21Saturday, May 214:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Manaea	1538	+4	+0	=1542	46%
5/21Saturday, May 214:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Rodon	1524	+19	+24	=1567	54%
5/22Sunday, May 224:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1538	+12	+0	=1550	51%
5/22Sunday, May 224:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Wood	1524	–6	+24	=1542	49%
5/23Monday, May 239:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1544	–19	–4	=1521	42%
5/23Monday, May 239:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Clevinger	1538	+21	+22	=1581	58%
5/24Tuesday, May 249:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1544	+39	+0	=1583	52%
5/24Tuesday, May 249:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1538	+7	+24	=1569	48%
5/25Wednesday, May 254:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1544	–6	+0	=1538	47%
5/25Wednesday, May 254:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1538	–4	+24	=1558	53%
5/27Friday, May 279:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1442	+0	–2	=1440	33%
5/27Friday, May 279:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+26	=1566	67%
5/28Saturday, May 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1442	+0	+0	=1442	33%
5/28Saturday, May 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	67%
5/29Sunday, May 294:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1442	+0	+0	=1442	33%
5/29Sunday, May 294:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	67%
5/30Monday, May 302:15 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	–4	=1536	50%
5/30Monday, May 302:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+24	=1533	50%
5/31Tuesday, May 317:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	51%
5/31Tuesday, May 317:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+24	=1533	49%
6/1Wednesday, June 11:15 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	51%
6/1Wednesday, June 11:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+24	=1533	49%
6/2Thursday, June 27:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	–2	=1538	46%
6/2Thursday, June 27:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	+23	=1568	54%
6/3Friday, June 38:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	46%
6/3Friday, June 38:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	+24	=1569	54%
6/4Saturday, June 44:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	46%
6/4Saturday, June 44:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	+24	=1569	54%
6/5Sunday, June 52:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	46%
6/5Sunday, June 52:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	+24	=1569	54%
6/6Monday, June 69:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1533	–2	–1	=1530	46%
6/6Monday, June 69:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+20	=1560	54%
6/7Tuesday, June 79:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1533	–2	+0	=1531	45%
6/7Tuesday, June 79:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	55%
6/8Wednesday, June 89:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1533	–2	+0	=1531	45%
6/8Wednesday, June 89:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	55%
6/10Friday, June 109:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	–2	=1459	35%
6/10Friday, June 109:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+26	=1566	65%
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	36%
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	64%
6/11Saturday, June 1110:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	36%
6/11Saturday, June 1110:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	64%
6/12Sunday, June 124:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	36%
6/12Sunday, June 124:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	64%
6/13Monday, June 138:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	–4	=1536	55%
6/13Monday, June 138:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+21	=1500	45%
6/14Tuesday, June 148:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	55%
6/14Tuesday, June 148:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+24	=1503	45%
6/15Wednesday, June 158:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	55%
6/15Wednesday, June 158:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+24	=1503	45%
6/16Thursday, June 162:20 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	55%
6/16Thursday, June 162:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+24	=1503	45%
6/17Friday, June 178:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	–3	=1537	57%
6/17Friday, June 178:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	43%
6/18Saturday, June 189:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	58%
6/18Saturday, June 189:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	42%
6/19Sunday, June 193:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	58%
6/19Sunday, June 193:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	42%
6/20Monday, June 209:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	–2	=1462	36%
6/20Monday, June 209:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+21	=1561	64%
6/21Tuesday, June 219:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+0	=1464	36%
6/21Tuesday, June 219:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	64%
6/22Wednesday, June 224:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+0	=1464	36%
6/22Wednesday, June 224:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	64%
6/23Thursday, June 239:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+0	–3	=1521	44%
6/23Thursday, June 239:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	56%
6/24Friday, June 249:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	44%
6/24Friday, June 249:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	56%
6/25Saturday, June 2510:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	44%
6/25Saturday, June 2510:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	56%
6/26Sunday, June 264:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	44%
6/26Sunday, June 264:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	56%
6/28Tuesday, June 289:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	57%
6/28Tuesday, June 289:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+26	=1490	43%
6/29Wednesday, June 293:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	57%
6/29Wednesday, June 293:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+24	=1488	43%
6/30Thursday, June 3010:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	–2	=1538	40%
6/30Thursday, June 3010:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+21	=1608	60%
7/1Friday, July 110:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	40%
7/1Friday, July 110:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+24	=1611	60%
7/2Saturday, July 27:15 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	40%
7/2Saturday, July 27:15 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+24	=1611	60%
7/3Sunday, July 34:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	40%
7/3Sunday, July 34:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+24	=1611	60%
7/4Monday, July 46:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1498	+2	–3	=1497	41%
7/4Monday, July 46:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+23	=1563	59%
7/5Tuesday, July 54:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1498	+2	+0	=1500	41%
7/5Tuesday, July 54:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	59%
7/7Thursday, July 79:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	–2	=1522	44%
7/7Thursday, July 79:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+26	=1566	56%
7/8Friday, July 89:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	44%
7/8Friday, July 89:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	56%
7/9Saturday, July 97:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	44%
7/9Saturday, July 97:15 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	56%
7/10Sunday, July 104:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	44%
7/10Sunday, July 104:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	56%
7/11Monday, July 118:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	–3	=1537	58%
7/11Monday, July 118:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+21	=1482	42%
7/12Tuesday, July 128:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	58%
7/12Tuesday, July 128:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	42%
7/13Wednesday, July 138:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	58%
7/13Wednesday, July 138:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	42%
7/14Thursday, July 143:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	58%
7/14Thursday, July 143:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	42%
7/15Friday, July 159:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+0	=1464	36%
7/15Friday, July 159:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+21	=1561	64%
7/16Saturday, July 168:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+0	=1464	36%
7/16Saturday, July 168:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	64%
7/17Sunday, July 174:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+0	=1464	36%
7/17Sunday, July 174:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	64%
7/22Friday, July 227:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+3	=1543	48%
7/22Friday, July 227:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1533	–2	+28	=1559	52%
7/23Saturday, July 237:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	48%
7/23Saturday, July 237:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1533	–2	+24	=1555	52%
7/24Sunday, July 241:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	48%
7/24Sunday, July 241:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1533	–2	+24	=1555	52%
7/25Monday, July 257:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	–2	=1538	58%
7/25Monday, July 257:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	42%
7/26Tuesday, July 267:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	58%
7/26Tuesday, July 267:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	42%
7/27Wednesday, July 271:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	58%
7/27Wednesday, July 271:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	42%
7/29Friday, July 299:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	–2	=1517	44%
7/29Friday, July 299:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+22	=1562	56%
7/30Saturday, July 308:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	44%
7/30Saturday, July 308:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	56%
7/31Sunday, July 314:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	44%
7/31Sunday, July 314:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	56%
8/1Monday, Aug. 19:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	–3	=1458	35%
8/1Monday, Aug. 19:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	65%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	36%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	64%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 210:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	36%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 210:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	64%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 39:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	36%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 39:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	64%
8/4Thursday, Aug. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	36%
8/4Thursday, Aug. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	64%
8/5Friday, Aug. 510:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	–1	=1539	40%
8/5Friday, Aug. 510:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+22	=1609	60%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 69:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	40%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 69:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+24	=1611	60%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 74:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	40%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 74:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+24	=1611	60%
8/8Monday, Aug. 89:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	–2	=1522	44%
8/8Monday, Aug. 89:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+23	=1563	56%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 99:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	44%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 99:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	56%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 104:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	44%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 104:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	56%
8/12Friday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	–2	=1538	57%
8/12Friday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1463	–1	+23	=1485	43%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 137:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	58%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 137:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1463	–1	+24	=1486	42%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 1412:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	58%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 1412:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1463	–1	+24	=1486	42%
8/15Monday, Aug. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	–3	=1537	53%
8/15Monday, Aug. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	–1	+24	=1515	47%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	53%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	–1	+24	=1515	47%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 174:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	53%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 174:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	–1	+24	=1515	47%
8/18Thursday, Aug. 189:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1463	–1	–4	=1458	36%
8/18Thursday, Aug. 189:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+20	=1560	64%
8/19Friday, Aug. 199:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1463	–1	+0	=1462	36%
8/19Friday, Aug. 199:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	64%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 208:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1463	–1	+0	=1462	36%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 208:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	64%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 214:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1463	–1	+0	=1462	36%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 214:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	64%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 239:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	–2	=1497	40%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 239:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+26	=1566	60%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 244:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	41%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 244:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	59%
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	–1	=1539	57%
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+26	=1487	43%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	58%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	42%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	58%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	42%
8/29Monday, Aug. 299:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	–4	=1536	49%
8/29Monday, Aug. 299:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+20	=1544	51%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 309:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	49%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 309:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+24	=1548	51%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 313:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	49%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 313:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+24	=1548	51%
9/2Friday, Sept. 210:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	41%
9/2Friday, Sept. 210:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+20	=1607	59%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 39:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	40%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 39:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+24	=1611	60%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	40%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+24	=1611	60%
9/5Monday, Sept. 56:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	–2	=1462	36%
9/5Monday, Sept. 56:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+23	=1563	64%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 69:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+0	=1464	36%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 69:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	64%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 78:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+0	=1464	36%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 78:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	64%
9/9Friday, Sept. 99:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+1	=1588	53%
9/9Friday, Sept. 99:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+26	=1566	47%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 108:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+0	=1587	53%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 108:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	47%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 114:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+0	=1587	53%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 114:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	47%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 139:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	–1	=1539	52%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 139:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1498	+2	+26	=1526	48%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	52%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1498	+2	+24	=1524	48%
9/15Thursday, Sept. 159:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	–3	=1537	57%
9/15Thursday, Sept. 159:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+24	=1488	43%
9/16Friday, Sept. 169:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	57%
9/16Friday, Sept. 169:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+24	=1488	43%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	57%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+24	=1488	43%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 184:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	57%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 184:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+24	=1488	43%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 209:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	–2	=1507	42%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 209:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	58%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 219:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+0	=1509	42%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 219:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	58%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 224:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+0	=1509	42%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 224:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	58%
9/23Friday, Sept. 238:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	–3	=1537	57%
9/23Friday, Sept. 238:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	43%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	58%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	42%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 253:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	58%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 253:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	42%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 279:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+1	=1588	54%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 279:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+23	=1563	46%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 289:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+0	=1587	53%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 289:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	47%
9/29Thursday, Sept. 299:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+0	=1587	53%
9/29Thursday, Sept. 299:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	47%
9/30Friday, Sept. 309:40 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	–4	=1523	44%
9/30Friday, Sept. 309:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	56%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 18:40 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+0	=1527	45%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 18:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	55%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 24:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+0	=1527	45%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 24:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	55%
10/3Monday, Oct. 39:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	–2	=1522	44%
10/3Monday, Oct. 39:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	56%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 49:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	44%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 49:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	56%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	44%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	56%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
5/15Sunday, May 1511:35 a.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1536	+12	+0	=1548	51%	7
5/15Sunday, May 1511:35 a.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1541	–25	+24	=1540	49%	3
5/14Saturday, May 144:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Manaea	1537	+2	+0	=1539	45%	5
5/14Saturday, May 144:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1540	+9	+24	=1573	55%	6
5/13Friday, May 137:20 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1534	–1	–2	=1531	40%	11
5/13Friday, May 137:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1543	+30	+26	=1599	60%	6
5/11Wednesday, May 114:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Thompson	1475	–14	+0	=1461	42%	7
5/11Wednesday, May 114:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Martinez	1536	–42	+24	=1518	58%	5
5/10Tuesday, May 109:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Miley	1475	+0	+0	=1475	35%	4
5/10Tuesday, May 109:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Clevinger	1535	+24	+24	=1583	65%	5
5/9Monday, May 99:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1472	–6	–4	=1462	38%	6
5/9Monday, May 99:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Gore	1538	–12	+24	=1550	62%	0
5/8Sunday, May 84:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1493	+1	+0	=1494	39%	2
5/8Sunday, May 84:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1538	+10	+24	=1572	61%	3
5/7Saturday, May 78:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1489	+17	+0	=1506	41%	8
5/7Saturday, May 78:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Manaea	1541	+1	+24	=1566	59%	0
5/6Friday, May 69:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1490	+18	+0	=1508	42%	2
5/6Friday, May 69:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1540	–3	+24	=1561	58%	3
5/5Thursday, May 59:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1491	–18	–4	=1469	44%	1
5/5Thursday, May 59:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Martinez	1539	–47	+20	=1512	56%	2
5/4Wednesday, May 45:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Gore	1541	–15	+0	=1526	50%	5
5/4Wednesday, May 45:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1495	+4	+24	=1523	50%	6
5/4Wednesday, May 41:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Clevinger	1540	+26	+3	=1569	58%	5
5/4Wednesday, May 41:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1496	–9	+25	=1512	42%	4
5/1Sunday, May 11:35 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1539	+8	+0	=1547	62%	5
5/1Sunday, May 11:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1442	–5	+24	=1461	38%	2
4/30Saturday, April 306:35 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Manaea	1540	+2	+0	=1542	61%	6
4/30Saturday, April 306:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1440	+3	+24	=1467	39%	7
4/29Friday, April 296:35 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1538	–1	–2	=1535	60%	7
4/29Friday, April 296:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Thompson	1442	+0	+24	=1466	40%	3
4/28Thursday, April 2812:35 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Martinez	1537	–49	+0	=1488	45%	7
4/28Thursday, April 2812:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1483	+16	+24	=1523	55%	5
4/27Wednesday, April 276:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Gore	1535	–19	+0	=1516	53%	8
4/27Wednesday, April 276:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gutierrez	1484	–11	+24	=1497	47%	5
4/26Tuesday, April 266:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1534	+10	–2	=1542	56%	9
4/26Tuesday, April 266:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Sanmartin	1486	–13	+26	=1499	44%	6
4/24Sunday, April 244:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1589	+12	+0	=1601	55%	10
4/24Sunday, April 244:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Manaea	1537	+8	+24	=1569	45%	2
4/23Saturday, April 238:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Anderson	1590	–27	+0	=1563	51%	2
4/23Saturday, April 238:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1535	–6	+24	=1553	49%	3
4/22Friday, April 229:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1589	+4	+1	=1594	61%	6
4/22Friday, April 229:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Martinez	1537	–49	+26	=1514	39%	1
4/20Wednesday, April 204:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gutierrez	1490	–11	+0	=1479	42%	0
4/20Wednesday, April 204:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Gore	1535	–25	+24	=1534	58%	6
4/19Tuesday, April 199:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Sanmartin	1491	–8	+0	=1483	38%	2
4/19Tuesday, April 199:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1534	+9	+24	=1567	62%	6
4/18Monday, April 189:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1492	–17	–1	=1474	37%	1
4/18Monday, April 189:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Manaea	1532	+10	+24	=1566	63%	4
4/17Sunday, April 177 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1548	–29	+0	=1519	46%	1
4/17Sunday, April 177 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1531	–9	+24	=1546	54%	2
4/16Saturday, April 164:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1546	+0	+0	=1546	55%	5
4/16Saturday, April 164:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Martinez	1533	–44	+24	=1513	45%	2
4/15Friday, April 159:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1544	–38	+0	=1506	46%	5
4/15Friday, April 159:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Gore	1535	–28	+24	=1531	54%	2
4/14Thursday, April 148:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1548	+22	–4	=1566	51%	1
4/14Thursday, April 148:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1531	+5	+22	=1558	49%	12
4/13Wednesday, April 133:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Manaea	1532	+9	+0	=1541	47%	1
4/13Wednesday, April 133:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1520	+17	+24	=1561	53%	2
4/12Tuesday, April 129:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1536	+0	+0	=1536	51%	2
4/12Tuesday, April 129:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cobb	1517	–11	+24	=1530	49%	13
4/11Monday, April 119:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Martinez	1534	–49	–3	=1482	42%	4
4/11Monday, April 119:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Wood	1518	–7	+24	=1535	58%	2
4/10Sunday, April 104:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1533	+5	+0	=1538	61%	10
4/10Sunday, April 104:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Smith	1458	–23	+24	=1459	39%	5
4/9Saturday, April 98:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1531	+2	+0	=1533	61%	5
4/9Saturday, April 98:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Davies	1459	–29	+24	=1454	39%	2
4/8Friday, April 89:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Manaea	1530	+1	+0	=1531	55%	3
4/8Friday, April 89:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Kelly	1461	+11	+24	=1496	45%	0
4/7Thursday, April 79:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1531	–1	–2	=1528	56%	2
4/7Thursday, April 79:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Bumgarner	1459	+3	+24	=1486	44%	4

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.