Updated May 22, 2022, at 3:09 PM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Orioles are done for the season.

AL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Yankees Yankees29-10	—	97%	75%
Blue Jays Blue Jays22-18	7.5	74%	13%
Rays Rays24-16	5.5	64%	10%
Red Sox Red Sox18-22	11.5	32%	2%
Orioles Orioles16-25	14.0	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/22Sunday, May 221:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Kluber	1531	+3	+0	=1534	65%
5/22Sunday, May 221:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1433	–27	+24	=1430	35%
5/23Monday, May 237:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1433	+5	–2	=1436	26%
5/23Monday, May 237:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1574	+18	+24	=1616	74%
5/24Tuesday, May 247:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1433	+1	+0	=1434	29%
5/24Tuesday, May 247:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1574	–8	+24	=1590	71%
5/25Wednesday, May 257:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1433	+7	+0	=1440	29%
5/25Wednesday, May 257:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+24	=1599	71%
5/27Friday, May 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1433	–6	+0	=1427	37%
5/27Friday, May 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Whitlock	1526	–24	+21	=1523	63%
5/28Saturday, May 2812:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1433	–27	+0	=1406	30%
5/28Saturday, May 2812:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1526	+0	+24	=1550	70%
5/28Saturday, May 286:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	34%
5/28Saturday, May 286:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	66%
5/29Sunday, May 291:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1433	+5	+0	=1438	34%
5/29Sunday, May 291:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1526	+2	+24	=1552	66%
5/30Monday, May 307:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1433	+1	+0	=1434	35%
5/30Monday, May 307:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Hill	1526	–5	+24	=1545	65%
5/31Tuesday, May 317:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kirby	1493	–9	–2	=1482	53%
5/31Tuesday, May 317:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1433	+7	+22	=1462	47%
6/1Wednesday, June 17:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Ray	1493	+29	+0	=1522	60%
6/1Wednesday, June 17:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1433	–6	+24	=1451	40%
6/2Thursday, June 27:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+0	=1495	56%
6/2Thursday, June 27:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	44%
6/3Friday, June 37:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1498	+0	+0	=1498	56%
6/3Friday, June 37:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	44%
6/4Saturday, June 44:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1498	+0	+0	=1498	56%
6/4Saturday, June 44:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	44%
6/5Sunday, June 51:35 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1498	+0	+0	=1498	56%
6/5Sunday, June 51:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	44%
6/7Tuesday, June 77:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	–1	=1475	53%
6/7Tuesday, June 77:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+26	=1458	47%
6/8Wednesday, June 87:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+0	=1476	53%
6/8Wednesday, June 87:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	47%
6/9Thursday, June 98:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–3	=1429	42%
6/9Thursday, June 98:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	+24	=1482	58%
6/10Friday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	43%
6/10Friday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	+24	=1482	57%
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	43%
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	+24	=1482	57%
6/12Sunday, June 122:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	43%
6/12Sunday, June 122:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	+24	=1482	57%
6/13Monday, June 137:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–3	=1429	31%
6/13Monday, June 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+22	=1568	69%
6/14Tuesday, June 147:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	31%
6/14Tuesday, June 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
6/15Wednesday, June 157:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	31%
6/15Wednesday, June 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
6/16Thursday, June 163:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	31%
6/16Thursday, June 163:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
6/17Friday, June 176:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	–2	=1530	61%
6/17Friday, June 176:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+22	=1454	39%
6/18Saturday, June 184:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	61%
6/18Saturday, June 184:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	39%
6/19Sunday, June 191:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	61%
6/19Sunday, June 191:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	39%
6/21Tuesday, June 217:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+1	=1457	50%
6/21Tuesday, June 217:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+26	=1458	50%
6/22Wednesday, June 227:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+0	=1456	50%
6/22Wednesday, June 227:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	50%
6/23Thursday, June 238:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–3	=1429	33%
6/23Thursday, June 238:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	+24	=1551	67%
6/24Friday, June 248:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	33%
6/24Friday, June 248:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	+24	=1551	67%
6/25Saturday, June 252:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	33%
6/25Saturday, June 252:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	+24	=1551	67%
6/26Sunday, June 262:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	33%
6/26Sunday, June 262:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	+24	=1551	67%
6/27Monday, June 2710:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–4	=1428	38%
6/27Monday, June 2710:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+21	=1516	62%
6/28Tuesday, June 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	38%
6/28Tuesday, June 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+24	=1519	62%
6/29Wednesday, June 294:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	38%
6/29Wednesday, June 294:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+24	=1519	62%
7/1Friday, July 18:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–1	=1431	34%
7/1Friday, July 18:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	+21	=1545	66%
7/2Saturday, July 22:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	34%
7/2Saturday, July 22:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	66%
7/3Sunday, July 32:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	34%
7/3Sunday, July 32:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	66%
7/4Monday, July 41:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	–2	=1472	53%
7/4Monday, July 41:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+21	=1453	47%
7/5Tuesday, July 57:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+0	=1474	53%
7/5Tuesday, July 57:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	47%
7/6Wednesday, July 67:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+0	=1474	53%
7/6Wednesday, July 67:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	47%
7/7Thursday, July 77:05 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	–3	=1528	60%
7/7Thursday, July 77:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	40%
7/8Friday, July 87:05 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	61%
7/8Friday, July 87:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	39%
7/9Saturday, July 94:05 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	61%
7/9Saturday, July 94:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	39%
7/10Sunday, July 1012:05 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	61%
7/10Sunday, July 1012:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	39%
7/12Tuesday, July 128:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–1	=1431	40%
7/12Tuesday, July 128:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+22	=1498	60%
7/13Wednesday, July 138:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	40%
7/13Wednesday, July 138:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	60%
7/15Friday, July 157:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–1	=1431	33%
7/15Friday, July 157:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	67%
7/16Saturday, July 164:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	33%
7/16Saturday, July 164:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	67%
7/17Sunday, July 171:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	33%
7/17Sunday, July 171:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	67%
7/22Friday, July 227:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	–3	=1572	65%
7/22Friday, July 227:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+28	=1460	35%
7/23Saturday, July 237:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+0	=1575	66%
7/23Saturday, July 237:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	34%
7/24Sunday, July 241:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+0	=1575	66%
7/24Sunday, July 241:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	34%
7/25Monday, July 257:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	–3	=1529	60%
7/25Monday, July 257:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	40%
7/26Tuesday, July 267:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	61%
7/26Tuesday, July 267:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	39%
7/27Wednesday, July 277:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	61%
7/27Wednesday, July 277:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	39%
7/28Thursday, July 2812:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	61%
7/28Thursday, July 2812:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	39%
7/29Friday, July 296:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–2	=1430	39%
7/29Friday, July 296:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	61%
7/30Saturday, July 306:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	40%
7/30Saturday, July 306:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	60%
7/31Sunday, July 311:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	40%
7/31Sunday, July 311:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	60%
8/1Monday, Aug. 18:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–3	=1429	41%
8/1Monday, Aug. 18:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+21	=1495	59%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 28:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	41%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 28:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+24	=1498	59%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 32:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	41%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 32:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+24	=1498	59%
8/5Friday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	–2	=1432	47%
8/5Friday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+23	=1455	53%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 65:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	47%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 65:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	53%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 71:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	47%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 71:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	53%
8/8Monday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	–3	=1543	62%
8/8Monday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	38%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	63%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	37%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	63%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	37%
8/11Thursday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–2	=1430	34%
8/11Thursday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	66%
8/12Friday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–3	=1429	33%
8/12Friday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+23	=1555	67%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 134:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	33%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 134:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	67%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	33%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	67%
8/15Monday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–3	=1429	31%
8/15Monday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	31%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 173:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	31%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 173:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	–2	=1522	59%
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	41%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 204:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+0	=1524	60%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 204:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	40%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 217 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+0	=1524	63%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 217 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	37%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	–3	=1524	59%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+26	=1458	41%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	+0	=1527	60%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	40%
8/25Thursday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	+0	=1527	60%
8/25Thursday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	40%
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–3	=1429	30%
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	70%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	30%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	70%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	30%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	70%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 306:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–1	=1431	37%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 306:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1498	+0	+22	=1520	63%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 316:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	37%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 316:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1498	+0	+24	=1522	63%
9/1Thursday, Sept. 16:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	37%
9/1Thursday, Sept. 16:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1498	+0	+24	=1522	63%
9/2Friday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	–1	=1452	50%
9/2Friday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+22	=1454	50%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+0	=1453	50%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	50%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 41:35 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+0	=1453	50%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 41:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	50%
9/5Monday, Sept. 51:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	–2	=1544	62%
9/5Monday, Sept. 51:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	38%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 67:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	63%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 67:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	37%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	63%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	37%
9/9Friday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	–1	=1523	59%
9/9Friday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+26	=1458	41%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 105:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+0	=1524	60%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 105:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	40%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 111:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+0	=1524	60%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 111:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	40%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 137:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+1	=1433	43%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 137:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	57%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	43%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	57%
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	31%
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 173:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	31%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 173:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:37 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	31%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
9/19Monday, Sept. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1457	+0	–2	=1455	50%
9/19Monday, Sept. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+22	=1454	50%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 207:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1457	+0	+0	=1457	50%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 207:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	50%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1457	+0	+0	=1457	50%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	50%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	–3	=1551	63%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	37%
9/23Friday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	64%
9/23Friday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	36%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	64%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	36%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	64%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	36%
9/26Monday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–2	=1430	34%
9/26Monday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+22	=1546	66%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	34%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	66%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	34%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	66%
9/29Thursday, Sept. 291:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	34%
9/29Thursday, Sept. 291:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	66%
9/30Friday, Sept. 307:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–2	=1430	28%
9/30Friday, Sept. 307:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+24	=1599	72%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 11:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	28%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 11:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+24	=1599	72%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	28%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+24	=1599	72%
10/3Monday, Oct. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	–2	=1544	63%
10/3Monday, Oct. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+22	=1454	37%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 47:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	63%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 47:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	37%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	63%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	37%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
5/21Saturday, May 217:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Springs	1530	–7	+0	=1523	60%	6
5/21Saturday, May 217:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1435	–3	+24	=1456	40%	1
5/20Friday, May 207:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Beeks	1531	–46	–1	=1484	53%	6
5/20Friday, May 207:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1433	+5	+24	=1462	47%	8
5/19Thursday, May 1912:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1575	–7	+0	=1568	65%	6
5/19Thursday, May 1912:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1431	+3	+24	=1458	35%	9
5/18Wednesday, May 187:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1575	+16	+0	=1591	68%	3
5/18Wednesday, May 187:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1431	+1	+24	=1456	32%	2
5/17Tuesday, May 177:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1574	–4	+0	=1570	69%	5
5/17Tuesday, May 177:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1432	–27	+24	=1429	31%	4
5/16Monday, May 167:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Severino	1573	–2	–3	=1568	66%	6
5/16Monday, May 167:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1433	+1	+22	=1456	34%	2
5/15Sunday, May 151:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1435	+10	+0	=1445	44%	1
5/15Sunday, May 151:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1459	+6	+24	=1489	56%	5
5/14Saturday, May 144:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1436	+4	+0	=1440	43%	0
5/14Saturday, May 144:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Pineda	1457	+8	+24	=1489	57%	3
5/13Friday, May 137:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1437	+0	–2	=1435	42%	2
5/13Friday, May 137:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Rodriguez	1456	+12	+24	=1492	58%	4
5/12Thursday, May 121:15 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Baker	1436	–7	+0	=1429	37%	3
5/12Thursday, May 121:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1507	–11	+24	=1520	63%	2
5/11Wednesday, May 117:45 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1437	–23	+0	=1414	32%	1
5/11Wednesday, May 117:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1505	+16	+24	=1545	68%	10
5/10Tuesday, May 107:45 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1436	–9	–3	=1424	39%	5
5/10Tuesday, May 107:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Naughton	1507	–31	+22	=1498	61%	3
5/9Monday, May 912:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1462	–3	+0	=1459	49%	1
5/9Monday, May 912:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1433	+5	+24	=1462	51%	6
5/8Sunday, May 85:45 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1463	–5	+0	=1458	50%	2
5/8Sunday, May 85:45 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1432	+2	+24	=1458	50%	4
5/8Sunday, May 81:35 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1462	+14	+4	=1480	52%	6
5/8Sunday, May 81:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1433	+0	+29	=1462	48%	4
5/5Thursday, May 57:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Archer	1523	–4	+0	=1519	62%	3
5/5Thursday, May 57:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1432	–19	+24	=1437	38%	5
5/4Wednesday, May 47:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Bundy	1526	–4	+0	=1522	60%	4
5/4Wednesday, May 47:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1429	–4	+24	=1449	40%	9
5/3Tuesday, May 37:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1524	+22	+0	=1546	63%	7
5/3Tuesday, May 37:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1430	+0	+24	=1454	37%	2
5/2Monday, May 27:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Paddack	1524	–10	–3	=1511	58%	2
5/2Monday, May 27:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1431	+0	+24	=1455	42%	1
5/1Sunday, May 11:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1526	–18	+0	=1508	58%	5
5/1Sunday, May 11:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1429	–2	+24	=1451	42%	9
4/30Saturday, April 307:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1528	+12	+0	=1540	66%	1
4/30Saturday, April 307:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1427	–23	+24	=1428	34%	2
4/29Friday, April 297:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Hill	1527	–8	–2	=1517	60%	3
4/29Friday, April 297:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1428	–4	+22	=1446	40%	1
4/28Thursday, April 281:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1429	+2	+0	=1431	30%	5
4/28Thursday, April 281:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1557	–4	+24	=1577	70%	10
4/27Wednesday, April 277:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1430	–3	+0	=1427	30%	2
4/27Wednesday, April 277:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1556	–5	+24	=1575	70%	5
4/26Tuesday, April 267:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1431	+4	–2	=1433	29%	8
4/26Tuesday, April 267:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Severino	1555	+5	+26	=1586	71%	12
4/24Sunday, April 244:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Ellis	1432	+11	+0	=1443	39%	6
4/24Sunday, April 244:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Suarez	1519	–23	+24	=1520	61%	7
4/23Saturday, April 239:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1430	–25	+0	=1405	30%	5
4/23Saturday, April 239:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Syndergaard	1520	+11	+24	=1555	70%	4
4/22Friday, April 229:38 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1428	–1	–2	=1425	37%	5
4/22Friday, April 229:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Detmers	1522	–27	+23	=1518	63%	3
4/21Thursday, April 213:37 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1430	–1	+0	=1429	44%	4
4/21Thursday, April 213:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Blackburn	1465	–18	+24	=1471	56%	6
4/20Wednesday, April 206:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1428	+0	+0	=1428	43%	1
4/20Wednesday, April 206:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Jefferies	1466	–12	+24	=1478	57%	0
4/19Tuesday, April 199:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Ellis	1429	+10	+0	=1439	44%	1
4/19Tuesday, April 199:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Irvin	1465	–12	+24	=1477	56%	2
4/18Monday, April 189:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1430	–31	–4	=1395	33%	1
4/18Monday, April 189:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1464	+36	+20	=1520	67%	5
4/17Sunday, April 171:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cortes	1555	–5	+0	=1550	64%	0
4/17Sunday, April 171:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1427	–5	+24	=1446	36%	5
4/16Saturday, April 167:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1554	–2	+0	=1552	64%	5
4/16Saturday, April 167:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1428	–3	+24	=1449	36%	2
4/15Friday, April 157:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1555	–7	–2	=1546	63%	1
4/15Friday, April 157:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1427	+0	+26	=1453	37%	2
4/13Wednesday, April 137:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1536	+31	+0	=1567	63%	4
4/13Wednesday, April 137:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1428	+24	+24	=1476	37%	2
4/12Tuesday, April 127:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1536	–12	+0	=1524	64%	5
4/12Tuesday, April 127:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1429	–28	+24	=1425	36%	4
4/11Monday, April 113:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1538	–15	–3	=1520	61%	0
4/11Monday, April 113:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1427	–8	+21	=1440	39%	2
4/10Sunday, April 101:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1428	–2	+0	=1426	31%	0
4/10Sunday, April 101:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Kluber	1533	+10	+24	=1567	69%	8
4/9Saturday, April 91:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1429	+4	+0	=1433	31%	3
4/9Saturday, April 91:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Rasmussen	1532	+12	+24	=1568	69%	5
4/8Friday, April 83:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1430	+24	–3	=1451	34%	1
4/8Friday, April 83:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1531	+14	+24	=1569	66%	2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.