Updated Oct. 2, 2022, at 10:36 PM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Orioles are done for the season.

AL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Yankees Yankees97-61	—	✓	✓
Blue Jays Blue Jays90-69	7.5	✓	—
Rays Rays86-73	11.5	✓	—
Orioles Orioles82-77	15.5	—	—
Red Sox Red Sox75-84	22.5	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
10/3Monday, Oct. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1550	–19	–2	=1529	53%
10/3Monday, Oct. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1487	+2	+22	=1511	47%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 47:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	White	1550	–30	+0	=1520	53%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 47:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Baumann	1487	–14	+24	=1497	47%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1550	+11	+0	=1561	57%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1487	+1	+24	=1512	43%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1486	+1	+0	=1487	41%	3
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Gonzalez	1578	–51	+24	=1551	59%	1
10/1Saturday, Oct. 11:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1487	+2	+0	=1489	33%	0
10/1Saturday, Oct. 11:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cortes	1576	+15	+24	=1615	67%	8
9/30Friday, Sept. 307:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1486	–7	–2	=1477	34%	2
9/30Friday, Sept. 307:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	German	1578	–11	+24	=1591	66%	1
9/29Thursday, Sept. 291:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Baumann	1487	–15	+0	=1472	40%	3
9/29Thursday, Sept. 291:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1505	+10	+24	=1539	60%	5
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1488	+5	+0	=1493	45%	1
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Hill	1503	–2	+24	=1525	55%	3
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1489	+6	+0	=1495	43%	9
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Wacha	1502	+22	+24	=1548	57%	13
9/26Monday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1487	–6	–2	=1479	48%	14
9/26Monday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Seabold	1504	–37	+22	=1489	52%	8
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1576	+5	+0	=1581	60%	6
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1488	–3	+24	=1509	40%	3
9/24Saturday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1576	+11	+0	=1587	63%	11
9/24Saturday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Baumann	1489	–18	+24	=1495	37%	10
9/23Friday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1579	–21	+0	=1558	57%	0
9/23Friday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1486	–3	+24	=1507	43%	6
9/22Thursday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1580	+34	–3	=1611	65%	0
9/22Thursday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1484	–1	+24	=1507	35%	2
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Manning	1449	+4	+0	=1453	44%	1
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1482	–7	+24	=1499	56%	8
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 207:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Wentz	1448	+1	+0	=1449	41%	3
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 207:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1483	+3	+24	=1510	59%	2
9/19Monday, Sept. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Alexander	1443	–18	–2	=1423	37%	11
9/19Monday, Sept. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1488	+9	+22	=1519	63%	0
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:37 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1486	+0	+0	=1486	34%	5
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1546	+32	+24	=1602	66%	4
9/17Saturday, Sept. 173:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1488	+1	+0	=1489	40%	3
9/17Saturday, Sept. 173:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1544	–9	+24	=1559	60%	6
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1489	–8	+0	=1481	37%	3
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Richards (open)	1543	+8	+24	=1575	63%	6
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1487	+9	+0	=1496	56%	6
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1442	–13	+24	=1453	44%	2
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 137:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1486	+1	+1	=1488	52%	4
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 137:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Abbott	1443	+10	+24	=1477	48%	3
9/11Sunday, Sept. 111:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Hill	1510	–7	+0	=1503	50%	1
9/11Sunday, Sept. 111:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1487	–5	+24	=1506	50%	0
9/10Saturday, Sept. 105:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Wacha	1506	+20	+0	=1526	52%	17
9/10Saturday, Sept. 105:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1491	–2	+24	=1513	48%	4
9/9Friday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Bello	1507	–15	–1	=1491	46%	2
9/9Friday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1490	+1	+26	=1517	54%	3
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1543	+31	+0	=1574	57%	4
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1491	+9	+24	=1524	43%	1
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 67:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	White	1544	–23	+0	=1521	52%	6
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 67:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1490	–4	+24	=1510	48%	9
9/5Monday, Sept. 55:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1543	–9	+0	=1534	55%	8
9/5Monday, Sept. 55:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Baumann	1491	–18	+24	=1497	45%	4
9/5Monday, Sept. 51:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1541	+19	–2	=1558	56%	7
9/5Monday, Sept. 51:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1493	–3	+24	=1514	44%	3
9/4Sunday, Sept. 41:35 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Martinez	1434	–9	+0	=1425	39%	5
9/4Sunday, Sept. 41:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1496	–14	+24	=1506	61%	0
9/3Saturday, Sept. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Oller	1436	–11	+0	=1425	37%	1
9/3Saturday, Sept. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1494	+1	+24	=1519	63%	8
9/2Friday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Sears	1437	+5	–1	=1441	40%	2
9/2Friday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1493	–3	+22	=1512	60%	5
9/1Thursday, Sept. 16:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1491	–10	+0	=1481	38%	3
9/1Thursday, Sept. 16:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1512	+31	+24	=1567	62%	0
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 316:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1488	–5	+0	=1483	39%	4
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 316:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1515	+21	+24	=1560	61%	0
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 306:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1490	–10	–1	=1479	42%	1
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 306:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1513	+2	+22	=1537	58%	5
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1490	–1	+0	=1489	31%	1
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1566	+36	+24	=1626	69%	3
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1488	–6	+0	=1482	36%	3
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1568	–9	+24	=1583	64%	1
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1486	–17	–3	=1466	33%	2
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1570	–3	+24	=1591	67%	0
8/25Thursday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1516	+6	+0	=1522	52%	3
8/25Thursday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1485	–3	+24	=1506	48%	4
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1515	–10	+0	=1505	50%	5
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1487	–9	+24	=1502	50%	3
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1516	+30	–3	=1543	54%	3
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1485	+3	+26	=1514	46%	5
8/21Sunday, Aug. 217 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1512	+6	+0	=1518	56%	3
8/21Sunday, Aug. 217 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1484	–6	+0	=1478	44%	5
8/20Saturday, Aug. 204:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Wacha	1512	+16	+0	=1528	55%	4
8/20Saturday, Aug. 204:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1485	–17	+24	=1492	45%	3
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Crawford	1514	+0	–2	=1512	51%	10
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1482	+0	+24	=1506	49%	15
8/18Thursday, Aug. 183:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Sampson	1471	–8	–1	=1462	45%	3
8/18Thursday, Aug. 183:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1483	–11	+22	=1494	55%	2
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 173:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1485	–1	+0	=1484	39%	1
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 173:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1536	+5	+24	=1565	61%	6
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1483	–7	+0	=1476	34%	4
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1538	+29	+24	=1591	66%	2
8/15Monday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1481	–15	–3	=1463	39%	7
8/15Monday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1541	–28	+24	=1537	61%	3
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1482	+3	+0	=1485	41%	1
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Rasmussen	1520	+6	+24	=1550	59%	4
8/13Saturday, Aug. 134:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Hall	1483	–12	+0	=1471	35%	2
8/13Saturday, Aug. 134:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1518	+34	+24	=1576	65%	8
8/12Friday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1480	–3	–3	=1474	40%	10
8/12Friday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Kluber	1522	+0	+23	=1545	60%	3
8/11Thursday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1481	–10	+0	=1471	44%	3
8/11Thursday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Winckowski	1511	–22	+24	=1513	56%	4
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1547	+28	+0	=1575	63%	5
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1480	–17	+24	=1487	37%	6
8/8Monday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1549	–27	–3	=1519	52%	4
8/8Monday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1478	+4	+24	=1506	48%	7
8/7Sunday, Aug. 71:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Wilson	1433	–17	+0	=1416	39%	8
8/7Sunday, Aug. 71:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1481	–11	+24	=1494	61%	1
8/6Saturday, Aug. 65:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1434	+2	+0	=1436	41%	3
8/6Saturday, Aug. 65:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1480	–3	+24	=1501	59%	6
8/5Friday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1435	+6	–2	=1439	43%	0
8/5Friday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1479	–14	+23	=1488	57%	1
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 32:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1477	–23	+0	=1454	41%	6
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 32:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Perez	1474	+22	+24	=1520	59%	3
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 28:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1475	+2	+0	=1477	50%	8
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 28:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Howard	1477	–26	+24	=1475	50%	2
8/1Monday, Aug. 18:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1472	–12	–3	=1457	41%	7
8/1Monday, Aug. 18:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gray	1479	+23	+21	=1523	59%	2
7/31Sunday, July 311:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1473	–3	+0	=1470	48%	2
7/31Sunday, July 311:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1472	–11	+24	=1485	52%	3
7/30Saturday, July 306:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1475	–6	+0	=1469	44%	2
7/30Saturday, July 306:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1470	+19	+24	=1513	56%	8
7/29Friday, July 296:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1473	–27	–2	=1444	44%	6
7/29Friday, July 296:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Minor	1473	–12	+24	=1485	56%	2
7/28Thursday, July 2812:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1528	–25	+0	=1503	51%	0
7/28Thursday, July 2812:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1471	+0	+24	=1495	49%	3
7/27Wednesday, July 277:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Rasmussen	1527	+3	+0	=1530	52%	6
7/27Wednesday, July 277:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1473	+22	+24	=1519	48%	4
7/26Tuesday, July 267:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1528	+42	+0	=1570	62%	3
7/26Tuesday, July 267:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1471	–12	+24	=1483	38%	5
7/25Monday, July 257:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Kluber	1531	+5	–3	=1533	56%	1
7/25Monday, July 257:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1469	–3	+24	=1490	44%	5
7/24Sunday, July 241:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cortes	1587	+1	+0	=1588	64%	6
7/24Sunday, July 241:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1470	–7	+24	=1487	36%	0
7/23Saturday, July 237:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1589	+23	+0	=1612	67%	3
7/23Saturday, July 237:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1468	+1	+24	=1493	33%	6
7/22Friday, July 227:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1589	–9	–3	=1577	58%	7
7/22Friday, July 227:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1469	+24	+28	=1521	42%	6
7/17Sunday, July 171:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1470	+6	+0	=1476	38%	5
7/17Sunday, July 171:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Kluber	1531	+7	+24	=1562	62%	7
7/16Saturday, July 164:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1468	–7	+0	=1461	40%	6
7/16Saturday, July 164:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1533	–29	+24	=1528	60%	4
7/15Friday, July 157:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1469	+23	–1	=1491	44%	4
7/15Friday, July 157:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Patino	1532	–26	+24	=1530	56%	5
7/13Wednesday, July 138:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1466	–17	+0	=1449	43%	7
7/13Wednesday, July 138:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1466	+5	+24	=1495	57%	1
7/12Tuesday, July 128:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1464	+5	–1	=1468	48%	4
7/12Tuesday, July 128:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Sampson	1467	–6	+22	=1483	52%	2
7/10Sunday, July 1012:05 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Suarez	1500	–26	+0	=1474	49%	5
7/10Sunday, July 1012:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1463	–6	+24	=1481	51%	9
7/9Saturday, July 94:05 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1501	+2	+0	=1503	54%	0
7/9Saturday, July 94:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1461	–9	+24	=1476	46%	1
7/8Friday, July 87:05 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Detmers	1502	–13	+0	=1489	46%	4
7/8Friday, July 87:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1461	+29	+24	=1514	54%	5
7/7Thursday, July 77:05 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Silseth	1504	–23	–3	=1478	49%	1
7/7Thursday, July 77:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1459	+3	+24	=1486	51%	4
7/6Wednesday, July 67:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Otto	1481	–16	+0	=1465	51%	1
7/6Wednesday, July 67:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1458	–20	+24	=1462	49%	2
7/5Tuesday, July 57:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Howard	1482	–28	+0	=1454	47%	9
7/5Tuesday, July 57:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1457	–5	+24	=1476	53%	10
7/4Monday, July 41:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Dunning	1483	+11	–2	=1492	53%	6
7/4Monday, July 41:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1456	–5	+21	=1472	47%	7
7/3Sunday, July 32:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1454	+26	+0	=1480	40%	3
7/3Sunday, July 32:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Smeltzer	1522	+3	+24	=1549	60%	1
7/2Saturday, July 22:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1455	+1	+0	=1456	34%	3
7/2Saturday, July 22:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1522	+24	+24	=1570	66%	4
7/1Friday, July 18:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1455	–24	–1	=1430	33%	2
7/1Friday, July 18:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1521	+9	+21	=1551	67%	3
6/29Wednesday, June 294:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1457	–2	+0	=1455	42%	3
6/29Wednesday, June 294:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1497	–7	+24	=1514	58%	9
6/28Tuesday, June 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1458	–7	+0	=1451	37%	0
6/28Tuesday, June 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Ray	1496	+24	+24	=1544	63%	2
6/27Monday, June 2710:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1455	+26	–4	=1477	44%	9
6/27Monday, June 2710:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kirby	1499	–2	+21	=1518	56%	2
6/26Sunday, June 262:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1456	+2	+0	=1458	36%	3
6/26Sunday, June 262:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1517	+21	+24	=1562	64%	4
6/25Saturday, June 252:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1453	–26	+0	=1427	31%	6
6/25Saturday, June 252:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1519	+20	+24	=1563	69%	2
6/24Friday, June 248:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1451	–1	+0	=1450	34%	4
6/24Friday, June 248:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Kopech	1522	+18	+24	=1564	66%	1
6/23Thursday, June 238:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1448	–8	–3	=1437	35%	4
6/23Thursday, June 238:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cueto	1524	–1	+24	=1547	65%	0
6/22Wednesday, June 227:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1452	–17	+0	=1435	41%	0
6/22Wednesday, June 227:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1446	+26	+24	=1496	59%	7
6/21Tuesday, June 217:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1451	+2	+1	=1454	47%	3
6/21Tuesday, June 217:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1448	+2	+26	=1476	53%	0
6/19Sunday, June 191:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Kluber	1529	+6	+0	=1535	59%	1
6/19Sunday, June 191:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1446	+0	+24	=1470	41%	2
6/18Saturday, June 184:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Springs	1528	+10	+0	=1538	61%	7
6/18Saturday, June 184:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1447	–12	+24	=1459	39%	6
6/17Friday, June 176:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Baz	1530	–24	–2	=1504	57%	0
6/17Friday, June 176:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1446	–12	+22	=1456	43%	1
6/16Thursday, June 163:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1442	+24	+0	=1466	32%	10
6/16Thursday, June 163:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1557	+12	+24	=1593	68%	2
6/15Wednesday, June 157:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1442	–11	+0	=1431	29%	6
6/15Wednesday, June 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1556	+5	+24	=1585	71%	7
6/14Tuesday, June 147:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1441	+1	+0	=1442	34%	6
6/14Tuesday, June 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1558	–27	+24	=1555	66%	5
6/13Monday, June 137:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1442	–8	–3	=1431	27%	1
6/13Monday, June 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1556	+24	+22	=1602	73%	11
6/12Sunday, June 122:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1440	–15	+0	=1425	42%	10
6/12Sunday, June 122:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1450	+8	+24	=1482	58%	7
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1439	+22	+0	=1461	49%	6
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1451	–6	+24	=1469	51%	4
6/10Friday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1441	–6	+0	=1435	45%	1
6/10Friday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Heasley	1449	–3	+24	=1470	55%	8
6/9Thursday, June 98:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1442	+5	–1	=1446	47%	5
6/9Thursday, June 98:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1448	–7	+24	=1465	53%	7
6/7Tuesday, June 77:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Thompson	1476	–6	–1	=1469	52%	3
6/7Tuesday, June 77:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1440	–10	+26	=1456	48%	9
6/5Sunday, June 51:35 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1502	–15	+0	=1487	56%	3
6/5Sunday, June 51:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1441	–17	+24	=1448	44%	2
6/4Saturday, June 44:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1503	+10	+0	=1513	54%	4
6/4Saturday, June 44:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1439	+22	+24	=1485	46%	5
6/3Friday, June 37:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1502	+25	+0	=1527	60%	6
6/3Friday, June 37:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1441	–6	+24	=1459	40%	3
6/2Thursday, June 27:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1493	–5	+0	=1488	52%	7
6/2Thursday, June 27:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1442	+7	+24	=1473	48%	6
6/1Wednesday, June 17:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Ray	1496	+24	+0	=1520	60%	2
6/1Wednesday, June 17:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1438	–13	+24	=1449	40%	9
5/31Tuesday, May 317:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kirby	1493	–12	–2	=1479	52%	10
5/31Tuesday, May 317:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Baker	1441	+0	+22	=1463	48%	0
5/30Monday, May 307:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1437	+13	+0	=1450	36%	10
5/30Monday, May 307:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Hill	1532	–5	+24	=1551	64%	0
5/29Sunday, May 291:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1439	+1	+0	=1440	34%	2
5/29Sunday, May 291:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1530	+3	+24	=1557	66%	12
5/28Saturday, May 286:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Reyes	1437	–4	+0	=1433	37%	4
5/28Saturday, May 286:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Winckowski	1532	–30	+24	=1526	63%	2
5/28Saturday, May 2812:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1438	+8	+0	=1446	34%	3
5/28Saturday, May 2812:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1531	+4	+24	=1559	66%	5
5/27Friday, May 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1435	–5	+0	=1430	36%	12
5/27Friday, May 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Whitlock	1534	–24	+21	=1531	64%	8
5/25Wednesday, May 257:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1436	+8	+0	=1444	35%	0
5/25Wednesday, May 257:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Sears	1568	–39	+24	=1553	65%	2
5/24Tuesday, May 247:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1437	+2	+0	=1439	31%	6
5/24Tuesday, May 247:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1567	–10	+24	=1581	69%	7
5/23Monday, May 237:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1434	+6	–2	=1438	27%	6
5/23Monday, May 237:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1569	+16	+24	=1609	73%	4
5/22Sunday, May 221:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Kluber	1531	+3	+0	=1534	65%	6
5/22Sunday, May 221:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1433	–27	+24	=1430	35%	7
5/21Saturday, May 217:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Springs	1530	–7	+0	=1523	60%	6
5/21Saturday, May 217:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1435	–3	+24	=1456	40%	1
5/20Friday, May 207:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Beeks	1531	–46	–1	=1484	53%	6
5/20Friday, May 207:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1433	+5	+24	=1462	47%	8
5/19Thursday, May 1912:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1575	–7	+0	=1568	65%	6
5/19Thursday, May 1912:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1431	+3	+24	=1458	35%	9
5/18Wednesday, May 187:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1575	+16	+0	=1591	68%	3
5/18Wednesday, May 187:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1431	+1	+24	=1456	32%	2
5/17Tuesday, May 177:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1574	–4	+0	=1570	69%	5
5/17Tuesday, May 177:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1432	–27	+24	=1429	31%	4
5/16Monday, May 167:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Severino	1573	–2	–3	=1568	66%	6
5/16Monday, May 167:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1433	+1	+22	=1456	34%	2
5/15Sunday, May 151:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1435	+10	+0	=1445	44%	1
5/15Sunday, May 151:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1459	+6	+24	=1489	56%	5
5/14Saturday, May 144:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1436	+4	+0	=1440	43%	0
5/14Saturday, May 144:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Pineda	1457	+8	+24	=1489	57%	3
5/13Friday, May 137:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1437	+0	–2	=1435	42%	2
5/13Friday, May 137:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Rodriguez	1456	+12	+24	=1492	58%	4
5/12Thursday, May 121:15 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Baker	1436	–7	+0	=1429	37%	3
5/12Thursday, May 121:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1507	–11	+24	=1520	63%	2
5/11Wednesday, May 117:45 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1437	–23	+0	=1414	32%	1
5/11Wednesday, May 117:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1505	+16	+24	=1545	68%	10
5/10Tuesday, May 107:45 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1436	–9	–3	=1424	39%	5
5/10Tuesday, May 107:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Naughton	1507	–31	+22	=1498	61%	3
5/9Monday, May 912:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1462	–3	+0	=1459	49%	1
5/9Monday, May 912:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1433	+5	+24	=1462	51%	6
5/8Sunday, May 85:45 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1463	–5	+0	=1458	50%	2
5/8Sunday, May 85:45 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1432	+2	+24	=1458	50%	4
5/8Sunday, May 81:35 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1462	+14	+4	=1480	52%	6
5/8Sunday, May 81:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1433	+0	+29	=1462	48%	4
5/5Thursday, May 57:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Archer	1523	–4	+0	=1519	62%	3
5/5Thursday, May 57:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1432	–19	+24	=1437	38%	5
5/4Wednesday, May 47:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Bundy	1526	–4	+0	=1522	60%	4
5/4Wednesday, May 47:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1429	–4	+24	=1449	40%	9
5/3Tuesday, May 37:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1524	+22	+0	=1546	63%	7
5/3Tuesday, May 37:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1430	+0	+24	=1454	37%	2
5/2Monday, May 27:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Paddack	1524	–10	–3	=1511	58%	2
5/2Monday, May 27:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1431	+0	+24	=1455	42%	1
5/1Sunday, May 11:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1526	–18	+0	=1508	58%	5
5/1Sunday, May 11:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1429	–2	+24	=1451	42%	9
4/30Saturday, April 307:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1528	+12	+0	=1540	66%	1
4/30Saturday, April 307:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1427	–23	+24	=1428	34%	2
4/29Friday, April 297:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Hill	1527	–8	–2	=1517	60%	3
4/29Friday, April 297:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1428	–4	+22	=1446	40%	1
4/28Thursday, April 281:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1429	+2	+0	=1431	30%	5
4/28Thursday, April 281:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1557	–4	+24	=1577	70%	10
4/27Wednesday, April 277:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1430	–3	+0	=1427	30%	2
4/27Wednesday, April 277:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1556	–5	+24	=1575	70%	5
4/26Tuesday, April 267:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1431	+4	–2	=1433	29%	8
4/26Tuesday, April 267:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Severino	1555	+5	+26	=1586	71%	12
4/24Sunday, April 244:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Ellis	1432	+11	+0	=1443	39%	6
4/24Sunday, April 244:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Suarez	1519	–23	+24	=1520	61%	7
4/23Saturday, April 239:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1430	–25	+0	=1405	30%	5
4/23Saturday, April 239:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Syndergaard	1520	+11	+24	=1555	70%	4
4/22Friday, April 229:38 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1428	–1	–2	=1425	37%	5
4/22Friday, April 229:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Detmers	1522	–27	+23	=1518	63%	3
4/21Thursday, April 213:37 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1430	–1	+0	=1429	44%	4
4/21Thursday, April 213:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Blackburn	1465	–18	+24	=1471	56%	6
4/20Wednesday, April 206:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1428	+0	+0	=1428	43%	1
4/20Wednesday, April 206:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Jefferies	1466	–12	+24	=1478	57%	0
4/19Tuesday, April 199:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Ellis	1429	+10	+0	=1439	44%	1
4/19Tuesday, April 199:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Irvin	1465	–12	+24	=1477	56%	2
4/18Monday, April 189:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1430	–31	–4	=1395	33%	1
4/18Monday, April 189:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1464	+36	+20	=1520	67%	5
4/17Sunday, April 171:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cortes	1555	–5	+0	=1550	64%	0
4/17Sunday, April 171:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1427	–5	+24	=1446	36%	5
4/16Saturday, April 167:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1554	–2	+0	=1552	64%	5
4/16Saturday, April 167:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1428	–3	+24	=1449	36%	2
4/15Friday, April 157:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1555	–7	–2	=1546	63%	1
4/15Friday, April 157:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1427	+0	+26	=1453	37%	2
4/13Wednesday, April 137:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1536	+31	+0	=1567	63%	4
4/13Wednesday, April 137:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1428	+24	+24	=1476	37%	2
4/12Tuesday, April 127:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1536	–12	+0	=1524	64%	5
4/12Tuesday, April 127:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1429	–28	+24	=1425	36%	4
4/11Monday, April 113:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1538	–15	–3	=1520	61%	0
4/11Monday, April 113:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1427	–8	+21	=1440	39%	2
4/10Sunday, April 101:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1428	–2	+0	=1426	31%	0
4/10Sunday, April 101:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Kluber	1533	+10	+24	=1567	69%	8
4/9Saturday, April 91:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1429	+4	+0	=1433	31%	3
4/9Saturday, April 91:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Rasmussen	1532	+12	+24	=1568	69%	5
4/8Friday, April 83:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1430	+24	–3	=1451	34%	1
4/8Friday, April 83:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1531	+14	+24	=1569	66%	2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.