Updated May 22, 2022, at 3:09 PM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Marlins have a <1% chance of winning the World Series.

NL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Mets Mets27-15	—	80%	53%
Braves Braves19-21	7.0	63%	32%
Phillies Phillies18-22	8.0	35%	12%
Marlins Marlins17-22	8.5	12%	4%
Nationals Nationals13-28	13.5	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/22Sunday, May 221:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1542	+1	+0	=1543	51%
5/22Sunday, May 221:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1492	+22	+24	=1538	49%
5/24Tuesday, May 246:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1492	+20	+0	=1512	41%
5/24Tuesday, May 246:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1531	+23	+23	=1577	59%
5/25Wednesday, May 256:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1492	–4	+0	=1488	38%
5/25Wednesday, May 256:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Rasmussen	1531	+18	+24	=1573	62%
5/27Friday, May 277:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1492	–28	+0	=1464	36%
5/27Friday, May 277:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1542	+1	+24	=1567	64%
5/28Saturday, May 284:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1492	+22	+0	=1514	46%
5/28Saturday, May 284:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Davidson	1542	–27	+24	=1539	54%
5/29Sunday, May 291:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1492	+20	+0	=1512	39%
5/29Sunday, May 291:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1542	+23	+24	=1589	61%
5/30Monday, May 304:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1492	–4	–3	=1485	50%
5/30Monday, May 304:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+20	=1482	50%
5/31Tuesday, May 318:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	50%
5/31Tuesday, May 318:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1462	+4	+24	=1490	50%
6/1Wednesday, June 13:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1492	–28	+0	=1464	47%
6/1Wednesday, June 13:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gomber	1462	+1	+24	=1487	53%
6/2Thursday, June 26:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	–3	=1520	51%
6/2Thursday, June 26:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+20	=1512	49%
6/3Friday, June 36:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	+0	=1523	51%
6/3Friday, June 36:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	49%
6/4Saturday, June 44:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	+0	=1523	51%
6/4Saturday, June 44:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	49%
6/5Sunday, June 51:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	+0	=1523	51%
6/5Sunday, June 51:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	49%
6/7Tuesday, June 76:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	–1	=1455	41%
6/7Tuesday, June 76:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+26	=1518	59%
6/8Wednesday, June 86:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+0	=1456	42%
6/8Wednesday, June 86:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	58%
6/9Thursday, June 96:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+0	=1456	42%
6/9Thursday, June 96:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	58%
6/10Friday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–3	=1489	37%
6/10Friday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+26	=1580	63%
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	38%
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	62%
6/12Sunday, June 122:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	38%
6/12Sunday, June 122:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	62%
6/13Monday, June 137:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–3	=1489	42%
6/13Monday, June 137:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	58%
6/14Tuesday, June 147:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	43%
6/14Tuesday, June 147:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	57%
6/15Wednesday, June 151:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	43%
6/15Wednesday, June 151:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	57%
6/17Friday, June 177:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+1	=1493	41%
6/17Friday, June 177:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+24	=1556	59%
6/18Saturday, June 184:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	41%
6/18Saturday, June 184:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+24	=1556	59%
6/19Sunday, June 191:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	41%
6/19Sunday, June 191:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+24	=1556	59%
6/20Monday, June 201:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	41%
6/20Monday, June 201:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+24	=1556	59%
6/21Tuesday, June 216:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	–2	=1460	43%
6/21Tuesday, June 216:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+21	=1513	57%
6/22Wednesday, June 226:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+0	=1462	42%
6/22Wednesday, June 226:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	58%
6/23Thursday, June 2312:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+0	=1462	42%
6/23Thursday, June 2312:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	58%
6/24Friday, June 246:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	–1	=1531	52%
6/24Friday, June 246:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	48%
6/25Saturday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+0	=1532	52%
6/25Saturday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	48%
6/26Sunday, June 2612:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+0	=1532	52%
6/26Sunday, June 2612:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	48%
6/27Monday, June 277:45 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–3	=1489	43%
6/27Monday, June 277:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	57%
6/28Tuesday, June 287:45 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	44%
6/28Tuesday, June 287:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	56%
6/29Wednesday, June 297:45 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	44%
6/29Wednesday, June 297:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	56%
7/1Friday, July 16:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–1	=1491	51%
7/1Friday, July 16:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+26	=1482	49%
7/2Saturday, July 24:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	52%
7/2Saturday, July 24:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	48%
7/3Sunday, July 31:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	52%
7/3Sunday, July 31:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	48%
7/4Monday, July 411:05 a.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	52%
7/4Monday, July 411:05 a.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	48%
7/5Tuesday, July 56:40 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	–1	=1530	53%
7/5Tuesday, July 56:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+21	=1513	47%
7/6Wednesday, July 66:40 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	52%
7/6Wednesday, July 66:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	48%
7/7Thursday, July 77:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–3	=1489	41%
7/7Thursday, July 77:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+21	=1553	59%
7/8Friday, July 87:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	41%
7/8Friday, July 87:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+24	=1556	59%
7/9Saturday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	41%
7/9Saturday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+24	=1556	59%
7/10Sunday, July 101:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	41%
7/10Sunday, July 101:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+24	=1556	59%
7/11Monday, July 116:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	–3	=1431	38%
7/11Monday, July 116:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+21	=1513	62%
7/12Tuesday, July 126:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	38%
7/12Tuesday, July 126:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	62%
7/13Wednesday, July 136:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	38%
7/13Wednesday, July 136:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	62%
7/14Thursday, July 1412:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	38%
7/14Thursday, July 1412:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	62%
7/15Friday, July 156:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	–1	=1519	50%
7/15Friday, July 156:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	50%
7/16Saturday, July 164:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	51%
7/16Saturday, July 164:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	49%
7/17Sunday, July 171:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	51%
7/17Sunday, July 171:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	49%
7/21Thursday, July 211:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+4	=1478	44%
7/21Thursday, July 211:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+31	=1523	56%
7/22Friday, July 227:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–3	=1489	54%
7/22Friday, July 227:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+28	=1462	46%
7/23Saturday, July 237:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	55%
7/23Saturday, July 237:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	45%
7/24Sunday, July 241:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	55%
7/24Sunday, July 241:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	45%
7/25Monday, July 256:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–2	=1490	48%
7/25Monday, July 256:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	52%
7/26Tuesday, July 266:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	48%
7/26Tuesday, July 266:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	52%
7/27Wednesday, July 276:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	48%
7/27Wednesday, July 276:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	52%
7/28Thursday, July 2812:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	48%
7/28Thursday, July 2812:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	52%
7/29Friday, July 296:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	–1	=1531	53%
7/29Friday, July 296:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+21	=1513	47%
7/30Saturday, July 306:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+0	=1532	52%
7/30Saturday, July 306:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	48%
7/31Sunday, July 311:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+0	=1532	52%
7/31Sunday, July 311:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	48%
8/1Monday, Aug. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	–3	=1477	44%
8/1Monday, Aug. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	56%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+0	=1480	45%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	55%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 36:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+0	=1480	45%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 36:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	55%
8/5Friday, Aug. 52:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–1	=1491	49%
8/5Friday, Aug. 52:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+22	=1498	51%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 62:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	49%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 62:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	51%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 72:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	49%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 72:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	51%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–1	=1491	42%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+26	=1546	58%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	43%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	57%
8/11Thursday, Aug. 111:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	43%
8/11Thursday, Aug. 111:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	57%
8/12Friday, Aug. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–1	=1540	54%
8/12Friday, Aug. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+21	=1513	46%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	54%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	46%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	54%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	46%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	54%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	46%
8/15Monday, Aug. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1541	+2	–3	=1540	54%
8/15Monday, Aug. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	46%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1541	+2	+0	=1543	54%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	46%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 174:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1541	+2	+0	=1543	54%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 174:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	46%
8/19Friday, Aug. 1910:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–2	=1490	33%
8/19Friday, Aug. 1910:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+20	=1612	67%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 209:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	33%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 209:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+24	=1616	67%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 214:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	33%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 214:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+24	=1616	67%
8/22Monday, Aug. 229:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–2	=1490	52%
8/22Monday, Aug. 229:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+24	=1477	48%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 239:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	52%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 239:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+24	=1477	48%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 243:37 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	52%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 243:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+24	=1477	48%
8/26Friday, Aug. 266:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	–2	=1590	61%
8/26Friday, Aug. 266:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+22	=1514	39%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 276:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+0	=1592	61%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 276:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	39%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 2812:05 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+0	=1592	61%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 2812:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	39%
8/29Monday, Aug. 296:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+0	=1592	61%
8/29Monday, Aug. 296:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	39%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 306:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+2	=1534	53%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 306:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	47%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 316:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	52%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 316:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	48%
9/2Friday, Sept. 27:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–1	=1491	40%
9/2Friday, Sept. 27:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	60%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 37:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	40%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 37:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	60%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 41:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	40%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 41:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	60%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 66:45 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–1	=1491	43%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 66:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+22	=1542	57%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 76:45 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	43%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 76:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	57%
9/8Thursday, Sept. 86:45 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	43%
9/8Thursday, Sept. 86:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	57%
9/9Friday, Sept. 96:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	–1	=1531	53%
9/9Friday, Sept. 96:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+21	=1513	47%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 106:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+0	=1532	52%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 106:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	48%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 111:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+0	=1532	52%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 111:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	48%
9/12Monday, Sept. 121:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	–3	=1471	44%
9/12Monday, Sept. 121:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	56%
9/12Monday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+0	=1474	44%
9/12Monday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	56%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 136:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	–1	=1519	50%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 136:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	50%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 146:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	51%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 146:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	49%
9/15Thursday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	51%
9/15Thursday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	49%
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–3	=1489	51%
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+26	=1482	49%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 174:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	52%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 174:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	48%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	52%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	48%
9/19Monday, Sept. 196:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	–3	=1473	44%
9/19Monday, Sept. 196:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+21	=1513	56%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+0	=1476	44%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	56%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+0	=1476	44%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	56%
9/23Friday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	–1	=1455	41%
9/23Friday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+26	=1518	59%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 246:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+0	=1456	42%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 246:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	58%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+0	=1456	42%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	58%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–1	=1491	41%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+22	=1554	59%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	41%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+24	=1556	59%
9/29Thursday, Sept. 297:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–3	=1489	38%
9/29Thursday, Sept. 297:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	62%
9/30Friday, Sept. 308:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	39%
9/30Friday, Sept. 308:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	61%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	39%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	61%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	39%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	61%
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–3	=1538	54%
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+21	=1513	46%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	54%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	46%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	54%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	46%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
5/21Saturday, May 216:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1541	–22	+0	=1519	55%	4
5/21Saturday, May 216:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1493	–31	+24	=1486	45%	3
5/20Friday, May 206:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1539	+11	–1	=1549	54%	5
5/20Friday, May 206:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1494	+2	+26	=1522	46%	3
5/18Wednesday, May 186:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1460	+2	+0	=1462	39%	5
5/18Wednesday, May 186:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1495	+22	+24	=1541	61%	4
5/17Tuesday, May 176:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Adon	1462	–10	+0	=1452	45%	1
5/17Tuesday, May 176:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Poteet	1494	–29	+24	=1489	55%	5
5/16Monday, May 166:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1463	–7	–3	=1453	39%	2
5/16Monday, May 166:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1492	+18	+24	=1534	61%	8
5/15Sunday, May 151:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1542	+4	+0	=1546	58%	7
5/15Sunday, May 151:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1493	–28	+24	=1489	42%	3
5/14Saturday, May 146:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1545	–3	+0	=1542	54%	3
5/14Saturday, May 146:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1491	+1	+24	=1516	46%	9
5/13Friday, May 136:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1544	+38	–1	=1581	57%	2
5/13Friday, May 136:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1492	+20	+22	=1534	43%	1
5/11Wednesday, May 113:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1489	+16	+0	=1505	49%	11
5/11Wednesday, May 113:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Kelly	1469	+18	+24	=1511	51%	3
5/10Tuesday, May 109:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1491	–18	+0	=1473	48%	3
5/10Tuesday, May 109:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Bumgarner	1467	–4	+24	=1487	52%	9
5/9Monday, May 99:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1492	–27	–2	=1463	49%	3
5/9Monday, May 99:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Castellanos	1466	–19	+24	=1471	51%	4
5/8Sunday, May 84:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1493	+1	+0	=1494	39%	2
5/8Sunday, May 84:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1538	+10	+24	=1572	61%	3
5/7Saturday, May 78:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1489	+17	+0	=1506	41%	8
5/7Saturday, May 78:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Manaea	1541	+1	+24	=1566	59%	0
5/6Friday, May 69:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1490	+18	+0	=1508	42%	2
5/6Friday, May 69:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1540	–3	+24	=1561	58%	3
5/5Thursday, May 59:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1491	–18	–4	=1469	44%	1
5/5Thursday, May 59:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Martinez	1539	–47	+20	=1512	56%	2
5/4Wednesday, May 412:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Bumgarner	1463	+1	+0	=1464	46%	8
5/4Wednesday, May 412:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1492	–23	+24	=1493	54%	7
5/3Tuesday, May 36:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Castellanos	1462	–23	+0	=1439	38%	5
5/3Tuesday, May 36:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1494	+5	+24	=1523	62%	4
5/2Monday, May 26:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1460	+23	–3	=1480	42%	5
5/2Monday, May 26:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1495	+18	+24	=1537	58%	4
5/1Sunday, May 11:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gilbert	1506	+16	+0	=1522	47%	7
5/1Sunday, May 11:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1497	+19	+24	=1540	53%	3
4/30Saturday, April 306:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Ray	1508	+31	+0	=1539	56%	1
4/30Saturday, April 306:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1495	–25	+24	=1494	44%	3
4/29Friday, April 296:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Brash	1509	–14	–2	=1493	51%	6
4/29Friday, April 296:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1494	–26	+21	=1489	49%	8
4/28Thursday, April 281:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1493	+1	+0	=1494	54%	3
4/28Thursday, April 281:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1456	–16	+24	=1464	46%	2
4/27Wednesday, April 277:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1492	+16	+0	=1508	56%	2
4/27Wednesday, April 277:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1457	–14	+24	=1467	44%	1
4/26Tuesday, April 267:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1491	+21	–1	=1511	53%	5
4/26Tuesday, April 267:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1459	+4	+26	=1489	47%	2
4/24Sunday, April 241:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1489	–26	+0	=1463	39%	5
4/24Sunday, April 241:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1545	–30	+24	=1539	61%	4
4/23Saturday, April 237:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1487	–21	+0	=1466	35%	9
4/23Saturday, April 237:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1547	+1	+24	=1572	65%	7
4/22Friday, April 227:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1489	+1	–3	=1487	43%	0
4/22Friday, April 227:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1546	–34	+22	=1534	57%	3
4/21Thursday, April 216:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hicks	1508	–18	+0	=1490	45%	0
4/21Thursday, April 216:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1487	+11	+24	=1522	55%	5
4/20Wednesday, April 206:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1507	+7	+0	=1514	48%	2
4/20Wednesday, April 206:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1488	+18	+24	=1530	52%	0
4/19Tuesday, April 196:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1505	+27	–1	=1531	55%	5
4/19Tuesday, April 196:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1490	–22	+26	=1494	45%	1
4/17Sunday, April 171:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1519	+32	+0	=1551	59%	3
4/17Sunday, April 171:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1486	–21	+24	=1489	41%	11
4/16Saturday, April 166:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Suarez	1517	+2	+0	=1519	49%	10
4/16Saturday, April 166:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1489	+10	+24	=1523	51%	3
4/15Friday, April 156:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1519	–17	+0	=1502	47%	1
4/15Friday, April 156:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1487	+9	+24	=1520	53%	7
4/14Thursday, April 146:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Gibson	1520	–6	–3	=1511	48%	3
4/14Thursday, April 146:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1486	+17	+22	=1525	52%	4
4/12Tuesday, April 127:07 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1486	–28	+0	=1458	38%	3
4/12Tuesday, April 127:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1515	+1	+24	=1540	62%	4
4/11Monday, April 119:38 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1488	–19	–2	=1467	40%	2
4/11Monday, April 119:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Lorenzen	1514	–1	+24	=1537	60%	6
4/10Sunday, April 104:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1489	+12	+0	=1501	44%	2
4/10Sunday, April 104:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	DeSclafani	1517	–1	+24	=1540	56%	3
4/9Saturday, April 94:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1488	+8	+0	=1496	41%	2
4/9Saturday, April 94:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Rodon	1519	+15	+24	=1558	59%	1
4/8Friday, April 84:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1488	+20	–4	=1504	42%	5
4/8Friday, April 84:35 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1518	+17	+24	=1559	58%	6

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.