Updated May 15, 2022, at 10:19 PM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Reds have a <1% chance of winning the World Series.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
BrewersBrewers22-1388%75%
CardinalsCardinals19-152.549%21%
CubsCubs13-208.09%3%
RedsReds9-2613.03%<1%
PiratesPirates15-196.52%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
5/17Tuesday, May 176:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Overton, Connor
Overton
1477+6+0=148346%
CLECLEGuardians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
149910+23=151254%
5/18Wednesday, May 186:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1477+17+0=149445%
CLECLEGuardians
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
1499+5+24=152855%
5/20Friday, May 207:07 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1477+31+0=150844%
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun Jin
Ryu
154421+26=154956%
5/21Saturday, May 213:07 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Greene, Hunter
Greene
14778+0=146933%
TORTORBlue Jays
Manoah, Alek
Manoah
1544+23+24=159167%
5/22Sunday, May 221:37 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Overton, Connor
Overton
1477+6+0=148341%
TORTORBlue Jays
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
154424+24=154459%
5/23Monday, May 236:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
147842=147244%
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1477+17+22=151656%
5/24Tuesday, May 246:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1478+3+0=148147%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150253%
5/25Wednesday, May 256:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Steele, Justin
Steele
14785+0=147342%
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1477+31+24=153258%
5/26Thursday, May 2612:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Miley, Wade
Miley
14784+0=147447%
CINCINReds
Greene, Hunter
Greene
14778+24=149353%
5/27Friday, May 276:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1524+02=152253%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150247%
5/28Saturday, May 284:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1524+0+0=152453%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150247%
5/29Sunday, May 2911:35 a.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1524+0+0=152453%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150247%
5/31Tuesday, May 317:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+11=147740%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
1521+0+24=154560%
6/1Wednesday, June 17:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147841%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
1521+0+24=154559%
6/2Thursday, June 26:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
146313=145944%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+21=149956%
6/3Friday, June 36:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
14631+0=146244%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150256%
6/4Saturday, June 44:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
14631+0=146244%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150256%
6/5Sunday, June 51:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
14631+0=146244%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150256%
6/6Monday, June 66:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1464+02=146244%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150256%
6/7Tuesday, June 76:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1464+0+0=146445%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150255%
6/8Wednesday, June 86:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1464+0+0=146445%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150255%
6/9Thursday, June 912:35 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1464+0+0=146445%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150255%
6/10Friday, June 108:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+12=147642%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1508+1+21=153058%
6/11Saturday, June 112:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147842%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1508+1+24=153358%
6/12Sunday, June 122:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147842%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1508+1+24=153358%
6/13Monday, June 139:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+13=147549%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1464+0+20=148451%
6/14Tuesday, June 149:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147849%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1464+0+24=148851%
6/15Wednesday, June 153:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147849%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1464+0+24=148851%
6/17Friday, June 176:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1544+13=154256%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+22=150044%
6/18Saturday, June 184:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1544+1+0=154556%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150244%
6/19Sunday, June 191:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1544+1+0=154556%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150244%
6/21Tuesday, June 216:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1587+02=158561%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+26=150439%
6/22Wednesday, June 226:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1587+0+0=158762%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150238%
6/23Thursday, June 2312:35 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1587+0+0=158762%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150238%
6/24Friday, June 2410:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+14=147440%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1524+0+20=154460%
6/25Saturday, June 257:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147840%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1524+0+24=154860%
6/26Sunday, June 264:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147840%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1524+0+24=154860%
6/28Tuesday, June 288:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+12=147646%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1478+1+24=150354%
6/29Wednesday, June 298:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147846%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1478+1+24=150354%
6/30Thursday, June 308:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147846%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1478+1+24=150354%
7/1Friday, July 16:40 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
153912=153655%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+22=150045%
7/2Saturday, July 24:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
15391+0=153855%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150245%
7/3Sunday, July 31:40 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
15391+0=153855%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150245%
7/4Monday, July 46:40 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
153323=152854%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150246%
7/5Tuesday, July 56:40 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15332+0=153154%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150246%
7/6Wednesday, July 66:40 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15332+0=153154%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150246%
7/7Thursday, July 72:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1442+02=144041%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150259%
7/7Thursday, July 77:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1442+0+0=144241%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150259%
7/8Friday, July 86:40 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1530+11=153054%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150246%
7/9Saturday, July 94:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1530+1+0=153154%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150246%
7/10Sunday, July 101:40 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1530+1+0=153154%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150246%
7/12Tuesday, July 127:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+11=147733%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+1+24=159867%
7/13Wednesday, July 137:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147833%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+1+24=159867%
7/14Thursday, July 147:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147833%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+1+24=159867%
7/15Friday, July 158:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+13=147542%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1508+1+24=153358%
7/16Saturday, July 162:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147842%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1508+1+24=153358%
7/17Sunday, July 172:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147842%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1508+1+24=153358%
7/22Friday, July 226:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1508+1+5=151451%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+29=150749%
7/23Saturday, July 236:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1508+1+0=150951%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150249%
7/24Sunday, July 241:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1508+1+0=150951%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150249%
7/25Monday, July 256:40 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
149212=148948%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150252%
7/26Tuesday, July 266:40 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
14921+0=149148%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150252%
7/27Wednesday, July 276:40 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
14921+0=149148%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150252%
7/28Thursday, July 2812:35 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
14921+0=149148%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150252%
7/29Friday, July 296:40 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
143312=143040%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150260%
7/30Saturday, July 306:40 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14331+0=143240%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150260%
7/31Sunday, July 311:40 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14331+0=143240%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150260%
8/1Monday, Aug. 16:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+13=147544%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
14921+24=151556%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 26:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147845%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
14921+24=151555%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 36:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147845%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
14921+24=151555%
8/5Friday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+11=147737%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1544+1+22=156763%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 67:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147837%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1544+1+24=156963%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 72:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147837%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1544+1+24=156963%
8/8Monday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+13=147539%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15332+24=155561%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147839%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15332+24=155561%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 101:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147839%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15332+24=155561%
8/11Thursday, Aug. 117:15 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1478+12=147750%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+13=147550%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 136:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1478+1+2=148147%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+26=150453%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1478+1+0=147947%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150253%
8/15Monday, Aug. 156:40 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1524+03=152153%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150247%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 166:40 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1524+0+0=152453%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150247%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 1712:35 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1524+0+0=152453%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150247%
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147852%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1442+0+24=146648%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 207:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147852%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1442+0+24=146648%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 211:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147852%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1442+0+24=146648%
8/22Monday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+12=147640%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1524+0+24=154860%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 237:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147840%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1524+0+24=154860%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 247:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147840%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1524+0+24=154860%
8/25Thursday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147840%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1524+0+24=154860%
8/26Friday, Aug. 267:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+12=147649%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
14631+22=148451%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147849%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
14631+24=148651%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 281:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147849%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
14631+24=148651%
8/29Monday, Aug. 296:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1508+12=150751%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+22=150049%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 306:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1508+1+0=150951%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150249%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 316:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1508+1+0=150951%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150249%
9/2Friday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1461+02=145943%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+26=150457%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 36:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1461+0+0=146144%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150256%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 41:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1461+0+0=146144%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150256%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 67:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147846%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1478+1+24=150354%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 77:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147846%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1478+1+24=150354%
9/8Thursday, Sept. 82:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147846%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1478+1+24=150354%
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+11=147737%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1544+1+24=156963%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147837%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1544+1+24=156963%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147837%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1544+1+24=156963%
9/12Monday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1442+02=144041%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+22=150059%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 1312:35 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1442+0+0=144241%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150259%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 136:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1442+0+0=144241%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150259%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 1412:35 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1442+0+0=144241%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150259%
9/15Thursday, Sept. 157:45 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+12=147642%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1508+1+24=153358%
9/16Friday, Sept. 168:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147842%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1508+1+24=153358%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 177:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147842%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1508+1+24=153358%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 182:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147842%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1508+1+24=153358%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
1521+01=152053%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150247%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
1521+0+0=152153%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150247%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1544+12=154356%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150244%
9/23Friday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1544+1+0=154556%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150244%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 246:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1544+1+0=154556%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150244%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1544+1+0=154556%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150244%
9/26Monday, Sept. 266:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+12=147651%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1442+0+24=146649%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 276:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147852%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1442+0+24=146648%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 2812:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147852%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1442+0+24=146648%
9/30Friday, Sept. 302:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147846%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1478+1+24=150354%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 12:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147846%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1478+1+24=150354%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+0=147846%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1478+1+24=150354%
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1478+12=147747%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+22=150053%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1478+1+0=147947%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150253%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1478+1+0=147947%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1477+1+24=150253%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
5/15Sunday, May 151:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Greene, Hunter
Greene
147819+0=145948%0
PITPITPirates
Quintana, Jose
Quintana
1441+7+24=147252%1
5/14Saturday, May 146:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1479+34+0=151357%1
PITPITPirates
Thompson, Zach
Thompson
1439+2+24=146543%3
5/13Friday, May 136:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1477+17+0=149455%8
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14417+24=145845%2
5/12Thursday, May 126:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Overton, Connor
Overton
1475+42=147751%4
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1443+3+24=147049%0
5/11Wednesday, May 1112:35 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
154615+0=153157%11
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
147317+24=148043%14
5/10Tuesday, May 106:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
15451+0=154460%5
CINCINReds
Greene, Hunter
Greene
147422+24=147640%4
5/9Monday, May 96:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1548+82=155453%5
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1472+36+24=153247%10
5/8Sunday, May 81:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Thompson, Zach
Thompson
14422+0=144040%3
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1470+17+24=151160%7
5/7Saturday, May 76:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14402+0=143845%8
CINCINReds
Dugger, Robert
Dugger
147223+24=147355%5
5/7Saturday, May 712:35 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1442+1+3=144643%2
CINCINReds
Overton, Connor
Overton
1470+1+24=149557%9
5/5Thursday, May 51:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Greene, Hunter
Greene
14726+0=146637%5
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
154815+24=155763%10
5/4Wednesday, May 47:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
147413+0=146135%4
MILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
15454+24=156565%18
5/3Tuesday, May 37:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1475+171=149138%3
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1544+6+26=157662%6
5/1Sunday, May 13:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Sanmartin, Reiver
Sanmartin
147824+0=145444%1
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1466+2+24=149256%10
4/30Saturday, April 308:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Overton, Connor
Overton
147913+0=146647%3
COLCOLRockies
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
14653+24=148653%4
4/29Friday, April 298:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Greene, Hunter
Greene
148163=147248%4
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
1463+4+20=148752%10
4/28Thursday, April 2812:35 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Martinez, Nick
Martinez
153749+0=148845%7
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1483+16+24=152355%5
4/27Wednesday, April 276:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Gore, MacKenzie
Gore
153519+0=151653%8
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
148411+24=149747%5
4/26Tuesday, April 266:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1534+102=154256%9
CINCINReds
Sanmartin, Reiver
Sanmartin
148613+26=149944%6
4/24Sunday, April 241:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1510+24+0=153456%1
CINCINReds
Lodolo, Nick
Lodolo
148416+24=149244%4
4/23Saturday, April 234:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
15083+0=150547%5
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1486+15+24=152553%0
4/22Friday, April 226:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Matz, Steven
Matz
150643=149949%4
CINCINReds
Greene, Hunter
Greene
14885+22=150551%2
4/20Wednesday, April 204:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
149011+0=147942%0
SDSDPadres
Gore, MacKenzie
Gore
153525+24=153458%6
4/19Tuesday, April 199:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Sanmartin, Reiver
Sanmartin
14918+0=148338%2
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1534+9+24=156762%6
4/18Monday, April 189:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Lodolo, Nick
Lodolo
1492171=147437%1
SDSDPadres
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1532+10+24=156663%4
4/17Sunday, April 174:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1494+18+0=151238%1
LADLADDodgers
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
158515+24=159462%9
4/16Saturday, April 1610:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Greene, Hunter
Greene
149510+0=148533%2
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
1584+2+24=161067%5
4/15Friday, April 1510:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
149612+0=148434%1
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
15849+24=159966%3
4/14Thursday, April 1410:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Cessa, Luis
Cessa
1497154=147831%3
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1582+13+20=161569%9
4/13Wednesday, April 1312:35 p.m. EasternCLECLEGuardians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
14997+0=149247%7
CINCINReds
Lodolo, Nick
Lodolo
149912+24=151153%3
4/12Tuesday, April 124:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEGuardians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1496+303=152347%10
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1502+19+24=154553%5
4/10Sunday, April 101:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Greene, Hunter
Greene
150012+0=148837%6
ATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1554+2+24=158063%3
4/9Saturday, April 97:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150114+0=148744%1
ATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
155349+24=152856%2
4/8Friday, April 87:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Sanmartin, Reiver
Sanmartin
15013+0=149836%6
ATLATLBraves
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1553+20+24=159764%7
4/7Thursday, April 78 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1499+162=151338%6
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1555+19+24=159862%3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.