Updated May 15, 2022, at 10:19 PM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Reds have a <1% chance of winning the World Series.

NL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Brewers Brewers22-13	—	88%	75%
Cardinals Cardinals19-15	2.5	49%	21%
Cubs Cubs13-20	8.0	9%	3%
Reds Reds9-26	13.0	3%	<1%
Pirates Pirates15-19	6.5	2%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/17Tuesday, May 176:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Overton	1477	+6	+0	=1483	46%
5/17Tuesday, May 176:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1499	–10	+23	=1512	54%
5/18Wednesday, May 186:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1477	+17	+0	=1494	45%
5/18Wednesday, May 186:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1499	+5	+24	=1528	55%
5/20Friday, May 207:07 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1477	+31	+0	=1508	44%
5/20Friday, May 207:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1544	–21	+26	=1549	56%
5/21Saturday, May 213:07 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1477	–8	+0	=1469	33%
5/21Saturday, May 213:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1544	+23	+24	=1591	67%
5/22Sunday, May 221:37 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Overton	1477	+6	+0	=1483	41%
5/22Sunday, May 221:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1544	–24	+24	=1544	59%
5/23Monday, May 236:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1478	–4	–2	=1472	44%
5/23Monday, May 236:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1477	+17	+22	=1516	56%
5/24Tuesday, May 246:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1478	+3	+0	=1481	47%
5/24Tuesday, May 246:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	53%
5/25Wednesday, May 256:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1478	–5	+0	=1473	42%
5/25Wednesday, May 256:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1477	+31	+24	=1532	58%
5/26Thursday, May 2612:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Miley	1478	–4	+0	=1474	47%
5/26Thursday, May 2612:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1477	–8	+24	=1493	53%
5/27Friday, May 276:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	–2	=1522	53%
5/27Friday, May 276:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	47%
5/28Saturday, May 284:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	53%
5/28Saturday, May 284:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	47%
5/29Sunday, May 2911:35 a.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	53%
5/29Sunday, May 2911:35 a.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	47%
5/31Tuesday, May 317:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	–1	=1477	40%
5/31Tuesday, May 317:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	+24	=1545	60%
6/1Wednesday, June 17:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	41%
6/1Wednesday, June 17:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	+24	=1545	59%
6/2Thursday, June 26:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1463	–1	–3	=1459	44%
6/2Thursday, June 26:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+21	=1499	56%
6/3Friday, June 36:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1463	–1	+0	=1462	44%
6/3Friday, June 36:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	56%
6/4Saturday, June 44:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1463	–1	+0	=1462	44%
6/4Saturday, June 44:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	56%
6/5Sunday, June 51:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1463	–1	+0	=1462	44%
6/5Sunday, June 51:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	56%
6/6Monday, June 66:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	–2	=1462	44%
6/6Monday, June 66:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	56%
6/7Tuesday, June 76:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+0	=1464	45%
6/7Tuesday, June 76:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	55%
6/8Wednesday, June 86:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+0	=1464	45%
6/8Wednesday, June 86:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	55%
6/9Thursday, June 912:35 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+0	=1464	45%
6/9Thursday, June 912:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	55%
6/10Friday, June 108:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	–2	=1476	42%
6/10Friday, June 108:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+21	=1530	58%
6/11Saturday, June 112:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	42%
6/11Saturday, June 112:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+24	=1533	58%
6/12Sunday, June 122:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	42%
6/12Sunday, June 122:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+24	=1533	58%
6/13Monday, June 139:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	–3	=1475	49%
6/13Monday, June 139:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+20	=1484	51%
6/14Tuesday, June 149:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	49%
6/14Tuesday, June 149:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+24	=1488	51%
6/15Wednesday, June 153:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	49%
6/15Wednesday, June 153:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+24	=1488	51%
6/17Friday, June 176:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	–3	=1542	56%
6/17Friday, June 176:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+22	=1500	44%
6/18Saturday, June 184:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	+0	=1545	56%
6/18Saturday, June 184:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	44%
6/19Sunday, June 191:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	+0	=1545	56%
6/19Sunday, June 191:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	44%
6/21Tuesday, June 216:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	–2	=1585	61%
6/21Tuesday, June 216:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+26	=1504	39%
6/22Wednesday, June 226:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+0	=1587	62%
6/22Wednesday, June 226:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	38%
6/23Thursday, June 2312:35 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+0	=1587	62%
6/23Thursday, June 2312:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	38%
6/24Friday, June 2410:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	–4	=1474	40%
6/24Friday, June 2410:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+20	=1544	60%
6/25Saturday, June 257:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	40%
6/25Saturday, June 257:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+24	=1548	60%
6/26Sunday, June 264:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	40%
6/26Sunday, June 264:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+24	=1548	60%
6/28Tuesday, June 288:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	–2	=1476	46%
6/28Tuesday, June 288:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+24	=1503	54%
6/29Wednesday, June 298:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	46%
6/29Wednesday, June 298:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+24	=1503	54%
6/30Thursday, June 308:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	46%
6/30Thursday, June 308:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+24	=1503	54%
7/1Friday, July 16:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1539	–1	–2	=1536	55%
7/1Friday, July 16:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+22	=1500	45%
7/2Saturday, July 24:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1539	–1	+0	=1538	55%
7/2Saturday, July 24:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	45%
7/3Sunday, July 31:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1539	–1	+0	=1538	55%
7/3Sunday, July 31:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	45%
7/4Monday, July 46:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1533	–2	–3	=1528	54%
7/4Monday, July 46:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	46%
7/5Tuesday, July 56:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1533	–2	+0	=1531	54%
7/5Tuesday, July 56:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	46%
7/6Wednesday, July 66:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1533	–2	+0	=1531	54%
7/6Wednesday, July 66:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	46%
7/7Thursday, July 72:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1442	+0	–2	=1440	41%
7/7Thursday, July 72:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	59%
7/7Thursday, July 77:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1442	+0	+0	=1442	41%
7/7Thursday, July 77:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	59%
7/8Friday, July 86:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	–1	=1530	54%
7/8Friday, July 86:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	46%
7/9Saturday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	54%
7/9Saturday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	46%
7/10Sunday, July 101:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	54%
7/10Sunday, July 101:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	46%
7/12Tuesday, July 127:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	–1	=1477	33%
7/12Tuesday, July 127:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1573	+1	+24	=1598	67%
7/13Wednesday, July 137:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	33%
7/13Wednesday, July 137:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1573	+1	+24	=1598	67%
7/14Thursday, July 147:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	33%
7/14Thursday, July 147:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1573	+1	+24	=1598	67%
7/15Friday, July 158:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	–3	=1475	42%
7/15Friday, July 158:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+24	=1533	58%
7/16Saturday, July 162:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	42%
7/16Saturday, July 162:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+24	=1533	58%
7/17Sunday, July 172:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	42%
7/17Sunday, July 172:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+24	=1533	58%
7/22Friday, July 226:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+5	=1514	51%
7/22Friday, July 226:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+29	=1507	49%
7/23Saturday, July 236:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+0	=1509	51%
7/23Saturday, July 236:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	49%
7/24Sunday, July 241:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+0	=1509	51%
7/24Sunday, July 241:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	49%
7/25Monday, July 256:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	–1	–2	=1489	48%
7/25Monday, July 256:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	52%
7/26Tuesday, July 266:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	–1	+0	=1491	48%
7/26Tuesday, July 266:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	52%
7/27Wednesday, July 276:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	–1	+0	=1491	48%
7/27Wednesday, July 276:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	52%
7/28Thursday, July 2812:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	–1	+0	=1491	48%
7/28Thursday, July 2812:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	52%
7/29Friday, July 296:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–2	=1430	40%
7/29Friday, July 296:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	60%
7/30Saturday, July 306:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	40%
7/30Saturday, July 306:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	60%
7/31Sunday, July 311:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	40%
7/31Sunday, July 311:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	60%
8/1Monday, Aug. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	–3	=1475	44%
8/1Monday, Aug. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	–1	+24	=1515	56%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	45%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	–1	+24	=1515	55%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 36:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	45%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 36:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	–1	+24	=1515	55%
8/5Friday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	–1	=1477	37%
8/5Friday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	+22	=1567	63%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 67:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	37%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 67:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	+24	=1569	63%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 72:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	37%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 72:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	+24	=1569	63%
8/8Monday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	–3	=1475	39%
8/8Monday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1533	–2	+24	=1555	61%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	39%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1533	–2	+24	=1555	61%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 101:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	39%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 101:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1533	–2	+24	=1555	61%
8/11Thursday, Aug. 117:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	–2	=1477	50%
8/11Thursday, Aug. 117:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	–3	=1475	50%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 136:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+2	=1481	47%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 136:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+26	=1504	53%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+0	=1479	47%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	53%
8/15Monday, Aug. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+0	–3	=1521	53%
8/15Monday, Aug. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	47%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	53%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	47%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 1712:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	53%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 1712:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	47%
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	52%
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1442	+0	+24	=1466	48%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 207:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	52%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 207:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1442	+0	+24	=1466	48%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 211:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	52%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 211:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1442	+0	+24	=1466	48%
8/22Monday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	–2	=1476	40%
8/22Monday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+0	+24	=1548	60%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	40%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+0	+24	=1548	60%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	40%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+0	+24	=1548	60%
8/25Thursday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	40%
8/25Thursday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+0	+24	=1548	60%
8/26Friday, Aug. 267:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	–2	=1476	49%
8/26Friday, Aug. 267:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1463	–1	+22	=1484	51%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	49%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1463	–1	+24	=1486	51%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 281:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	49%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 281:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1463	–1	+24	=1486	51%
8/29Monday, Aug. 296:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	–2	=1507	51%
8/29Monday, Aug. 296:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+22	=1500	49%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 306:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+0	=1509	51%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 306:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	49%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 316:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+0	=1509	51%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 316:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	49%
9/2Friday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	–2	=1459	43%
9/2Friday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+26	=1504	57%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 36:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	44%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 36:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	56%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 41:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	44%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 41:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	56%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 67:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	46%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 67:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+24	=1503	54%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 77:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	46%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 77:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+24	=1503	54%
9/8Thursday, Sept. 82:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	46%
9/8Thursday, Sept. 82:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+24	=1503	54%
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	–1	=1477	37%
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	+24	=1569	63%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	37%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	+24	=1569	63%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	37%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	+24	=1569	63%
9/12Monday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1442	+0	–2	=1440	41%
9/12Monday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+22	=1500	59%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 1312:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1442	+0	+0	=1442	41%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 1312:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	59%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 136:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1442	+0	+0	=1442	41%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 136:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	59%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 1412:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1442	+0	+0	=1442	41%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 1412:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	59%
9/15Thursday, Sept. 157:45 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	–2	=1476	42%
9/15Thursday, Sept. 157:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+24	=1533	58%
9/16Friday, Sept. 168:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	42%
9/16Friday, Sept. 168:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+24	=1533	58%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 177:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	42%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 177:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+24	=1533	58%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 182:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	42%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 182:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1508	+1	+24	=1533	58%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	–1	=1520	53%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	47%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	+0	=1521	53%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	47%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	–2	=1543	56%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	44%
9/23Friday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	+0	=1545	56%
9/23Friday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	44%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 246:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	+0	=1545	56%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 246:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	44%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1544	+1	+0	=1545	56%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	44%
9/26Monday, Sept. 266:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	–2	=1476	51%
9/26Monday, Sept. 266:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1442	+0	+24	=1466	49%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 276:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	52%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 276:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1442	+0	+24	=1466	48%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 2812:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	52%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 2812:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1442	+0	+24	=1466	48%
9/30Friday, Sept. 302:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	46%
9/30Friday, Sept. 302:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+24	=1503	54%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 12:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	46%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 12:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+24	=1503	54%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+0	=1478	46%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+24	=1503	54%
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	–2	=1477	47%
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+22	=1500	53%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+0	=1479	47%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	53%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	CHCCubs	—	1478	+1	+0	=1479	47%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	CINReds	—	1477	+1	+24	=1502	53%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
5/15Sunday, May 151:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1478	–19	+0	=1459	48%	0
5/15Sunday, May 151:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Quintana	1441	+7	+24	=1472	52%	1
5/14Saturday, May 146:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1479	+34	+0	=1513	57%	1
5/14Saturday, May 146:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Thompson	1439	+2	+24	=1465	43%	3
5/13Friday, May 136:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1477	+17	+0	=1494	55%	8
5/13Friday, May 136:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1441	–7	+24	=1458	45%	2
5/12Thursday, May 126:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Overton	1475	+4	–2	=1477	51%	4
5/12Thursday, May 126:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1443	+3	+24	=1470	49%	0
5/11Wednesday, May 1112:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1546	–15	+0	=1531	57%	11
5/11Wednesday, May 1112:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gutierrez	1473	–17	+24	=1480	43%	14
5/10Tuesday, May 106:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1545	–1	+0	=1544	60%	5
5/10Tuesday, May 106:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1474	–22	+24	=1476	40%	4
5/9Monday, May 96:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1548	+8	–2	=1554	53%	5
5/9Monday, May 96:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1472	+36	+24	=1532	47%	10
5/8Sunday, May 81:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Thompson	1442	–2	+0	=1440	40%	3
5/8Sunday, May 81:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1470	+17	+24	=1511	60%	7
5/7Saturday, May 76:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1440	–2	+0	=1438	45%	8
5/7Saturday, May 76:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Dugger	1472	–23	+24	=1473	55%	5
5/7Saturday, May 712:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1442	+1	+3	=1446	43%	2
5/7Saturday, May 712:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Overton	1470	+1	+24	=1495	57%	9
5/5Thursday, May 51:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1472	–6	+0	=1466	37%	5
5/5Thursday, May 51:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1548	–15	+24	=1557	63%	10
5/4Wednesday, May 47:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gutierrez	1474	–13	+0	=1461	35%	4
5/4Wednesday, May 47:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1545	–4	+24	=1565	65%	18
5/3Tuesday, May 37:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1475	+17	–1	=1491	38%	3
5/3Tuesday, May 37:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1544	+6	+26	=1576	62%	6
5/1Sunday, May 13:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Sanmartin	1478	–24	+0	=1454	44%	1
5/1Sunday, May 13:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1466	+2	+24	=1492	56%	10
4/30Saturday, April 308:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Overton	1479	–13	+0	=1466	47%	3
4/30Saturday, April 308:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Kuhl	1465	–3	+24	=1486	53%	4
4/29Friday, April 298:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1481	–6	–3	=1472	48%	4
4/29Friday, April 298:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1463	+4	+20	=1487	52%	10
4/28Thursday, April 2812:35 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Martinez	1537	–49	+0	=1488	45%	7
4/28Thursday, April 2812:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1483	+16	+24	=1523	55%	5
4/27Wednesday, April 276:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Gore	1535	–19	+0	=1516	53%	8
4/27Wednesday, April 276:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gutierrez	1484	–11	+24	=1497	47%	5
4/26Tuesday, April 266:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1534	+10	–2	=1542	56%	9
4/26Tuesday, April 266:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Sanmartin	1486	–13	+26	=1499	44%	6
4/24Sunday, April 241:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1510	+24	+0	=1534	56%	1
4/24Sunday, April 241:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1484	–16	+24	=1492	44%	4
4/23Saturday, April 234:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1508	–3	+0	=1505	47%	5
4/23Saturday, April 234:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1486	+15	+24	=1525	53%	0
4/22Friday, April 226:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1506	–4	–3	=1499	49%	4
4/22Friday, April 226:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1488	–5	+22	=1505	51%	2
4/20Wednesday, April 204:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gutierrez	1490	–11	+0	=1479	42%	0
4/20Wednesday, April 204:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Gore	1535	–25	+24	=1534	58%	6
4/19Tuesday, April 199:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Sanmartin	1491	–8	+0	=1483	38%	2
4/19Tuesday, April 199:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1534	+9	+24	=1567	62%	6
4/18Monday, April 189:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1492	–17	–1	=1474	37%	1
4/18Monday, April 189:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Manaea	1532	+10	+24	=1566	63%	4
4/17Sunday, April 174:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1494	+18	+0	=1512	38%	1
4/17Sunday, April 174:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Heaney	1585	–15	+24	=1594	62%	9
4/16Saturday, April 1610:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1495	–10	+0	=1485	33%	2
4/16Saturday, April 1610:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1584	+2	+24	=1610	67%	5
4/15Friday, April 1510:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gutierrez	1496	–12	+0	=1484	34%	1
4/15Friday, April 1510:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1584	–9	+24	=1599	66%	3
4/14Thursday, April 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Cessa	1497	–15	–4	=1478	31%	3
4/14Thursday, April 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Buehler	1582	+13	+20	=1615	69%	9
4/13Wednesday, April 1312:35 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1499	–7	+0	=1492	47%	7
4/13Wednesday, April 1312:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1499	–12	+24	=1511	53%	3
4/12Tuesday, April 124:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1496	+30	–3	=1523	47%	10
4/12Tuesday, April 124:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1502	+19	+24	=1545	53%	5
4/10Sunday, April 101:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1500	–12	+0	=1488	37%	6
4/10Sunday, April 101:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1554	+2	+24	=1580	63%	3
4/9Saturday, April 97:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gutierrez	1501	–14	+0	=1487	44%	1
4/9Saturday, April 97:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1553	–49	+24	=1528	56%	2
4/8Friday, April 87:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Sanmartin	1501	–3	+0	=1498	36%	6
4/8Friday, April 87:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1553	+20	+24	=1597	64%	7
4/7Thursday, April 78 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1499	+16	–2	=1513	38%	6
4/7Thursday, April 78 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1555	+19	+24	=1598	62%	3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.