UPDATED Aug. 11, 2022, at 8:18 PM

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Who’s ahead in the Arizona governor race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Governor, Arizona, 2022

504LV
Jul.5-20
504LV
Hobbs
48%
Hobbs
48%

Hobbs

48%

Taylor Robson

40%
40%
Taylor Robson  Hobbs+8
802RV
Jul.5-20
802RV
Hobbs
42%
Hobbs
42%

Hobbs

42%

Taylor Robson

37%
37%
Taylor Robson  Hobbs+5
504LV
Jul.5-20
504LV
Hobbs
49%
Hobbs
49%

Hobbs

49%

Lake

40%
40%
Lake  Hobbs+9
802RV
Jul.5-20
802RV
Hobbs
43%
Hobbs
43%

Hobbs

43%

Lake

38%
38%
Lake  Hobbs+5
704LV
Jun.28-30
704LV
Hobbs
44%
Hobbs
44%

Hobbs

44%

Taylor Robson

39%
39%
Taylor Robson  Hobbs+5
704LV
Jun.28-30
704LV
Hobbs
47%
Hobbs
47%

Hobbs

47%

Lake

38%
38%
Lake  Hobbs+9
400LV
May 9-15
400LV
Hobbs
47%
Hobbs
47%

Hobbs

47%

Taylor Robson

46%
46%
Taylor Robson  Hobbs+1
400LV
May 9-15
400LV
Hobbs
50%
Hobbs
50%

Hobbs

50%

Lake

45%
45%
Lake  Hobbs+5
1,000LV
Feb.11-13
1,000LV
Hobbs
41%
Hobbs
41%

Hobbs

41%

Gaynor

39%
39%
Gaynor  Hobbs+2
1,000LV
Feb.11-13
1,000LV
Hobbs
41%
Hobbs
41%

Hobbs

41%

Salmon

39%
39%
Salmon  Hobbs+1
1,000LV
Feb.11-13
1,000LV
Hobbs
42%
Hobbs
42%

Hobbs

42%

Taylor Robson

37%
37%
Taylor Robson  Hobbs+5
1,000LV
Feb.11-13
1,000LV
Hobbs
41%
Hobbs
41%

Hobbs

41%

Lake

43%
43%
Lake  Lake+1
539LV
Nov.10
539LV
Hobbs
43%
Hobbs
43%

Hobbs

43%

Salmon

35%
35%
Salmon  Hobbs+8
539LV
Nov.10
539LV
Hobbs
41%
Hobbs
41%

Hobbs

41%

Lake

37%
37%
Lake  Hobbs+4
624RV
Nov.10
624RV
Hobbs
40%
Hobbs
40%

Hobbs

40%

Salmon

31%
31%
Salmon  Hobbs+9
624RV
Nov.10
624RV
Hobbs
39%
Hobbs
39%

Hobbs

39%

Lake

34%
34%
Lake  Hobbs+5
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