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Who’s ahead in Arizona?

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here.

On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. See here for more details and an archived version of the previous average.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: general election, Arizona, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Oct. 16-18
691LV
Oct. 16-18
691LV
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
 Harris
46%
 Harris
46%

Harris

46%

Trump

49%

Oliver

1%

Stein

1%
49%
 TrumpTrump+3
Oct. 12-17
1,440LV
Oct. 12-17
1,440LV
AtlasIntel
 Harris
49%
 Harris
49%

Harris

49%

Trump

49%
49%
Trump  Even
Oct. 12-17
1,440LV
Oct. 12-17
1,440LV
AtlasIntel
 Harris
49%
 Harris
49%

Harris

49%

Trump

49%

Stein

1%

Oliver

0%
49%
 TrumpTrump+1
Oct. 11-16
1,435LV
Oct. 11-16
1,435LV
YouGov
 Harris
48%
 Harris
48%

Harris

48%

Trump

51%
51%
Trump  Trump+3
Oct. 6-15
653LV
Oct. 6-15
653LV
Morning Consult
 Harris
49%
 Harris
49%

Harris

49%

Trump

48%
48%
Trump  Harris+1
Sept. 30-Oct. 15
580LV
Sept. 30-Oct. 15
580LV
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government
 Harris
46%
 Harris
46%

Harris

46%

Trump

49%
49%
Trump  Trump+3
Sept. 30-Oct. 15
580RV
Sept. 30-Oct. 15
580RV
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government
 Harris
44%
 Harris
44%

Harris

44%

Trump

50%
50%
Trump  Trump+6
Oct. 12-14
1,141LV
Oct. 12-14
1,141LV
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
 Harris
46%
 Harris
46%

Harris

46%

Trump

48%

Oliver

1%

Stein

1%
48%
 TrumpTrump+2
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

Partisan types

Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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