UPDATED Apr. 12, 2021, at 10:14 AM

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Who’s ahead in Illinois?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Added Dec. 30, 2020

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
U.S. House
U.S. House
IL-17IL-17
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
600 LV
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
600LVBustos
54%

Bustos

54%

King

44%
44%
KingBustos+11
U.S. House
IL-6IL-6
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
600 LV
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
600LVCasten
55%

Casten

55%

Ives

41%

Redpath

2%
MoreCasten+14
U.S. House
IL-3IL-3
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
600 LV
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
600LVNewman
56%

Newman

56%

Fricilone

32%
32%
FriciloneNewman+23

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Nov. 4, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Ill.
Ill.
Oct 20-Nov 2, 2020
5,643 LV
Oct 20-Nov 2, 2020
5,643LVBiden
58%

Biden

58%

Trump

40%
40%
TrumpBiden+18
President: general election Ill.
Ill.
Oct 20-Nov 2, 2020
5,643 RV
Oct 20-Nov 2, 2020
5,643RVBiden
58%

Biden

58%

Trump

39%
39%
TrumpBiden+19

Nov. 2, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Ill.
Ill.
Oct 31-Nov 1, 2020
450 LV
Oct 31-Nov 1, 2020
450LVBiden
55%

Biden

55%

Trump

38%
38%
TrumpBiden+17
President: general election Ill.
Ill.
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
485 LV
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
485LVBiden
55%

Biden

55%

Trump

44%

Jorgensen

1%

Hawkins

0%
MoreBiden+12
President: general election Ill.
Ill.
Oct 26-Nov 1, 2020
1,208 LV
Oct 26-Nov 1, 2020
1,208LVBiden
54%

Biden

54%

Trump

38%
38%
TrumpBiden+16
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ill.Ill.
Oct 31-Nov 1, 2020
450 LV
Oct 31-Nov 1, 2020
450LVDurbin
52%

Durbin

52%

Curran

30%
30%
CurranDurbin+22
U.S. Senate
Ill.Ill.
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
1,208 LV
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
1,208LVDurbin
51%

Durbin

51%

Curran

26%

Wilson

15%

Malouf

3%

Black

2%
MoreDurbin+25

Oct. 30, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Ill.
Ill.
Oct 23-26, 2020
424 LV
Oct 23-26, 2020
424LVBiden
54%

Biden

54%

Trump

43%

Jorgensen

2%

Hawkins

1%
MoreBiden+11

Oct. 20, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Ill.
Ill.
Sep 22-Oct 19, 2020
7,410 LV
Sep 22-Oct 19, 2020
7,410LVBiden
58%

Biden

58%

Trump

39%
39%
TrumpBiden+19
President: general election Ill.
Ill.
Sep 22-Oct 19, 2020
7,410 RV
Sep 22-Oct 19, 2020
7,410RVBiden
59%

Biden

59%

Trump

38%
38%
TrumpBiden+21
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