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Who’s ahead in the national Republican primary polls?

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

May 21-23
464RV
May 21-23
464RV
Marist College
 Trump
85%
 Trump
85%

Trump

85%

Haley

14%
14%
Haley  Trump+71
March 29-April 5
1,498RV
March 29-April 5
1,498RV
YouGov Blue
 Trump
72%
 Trump
72%

Trump

72%

DeSantis

13%

Haley

11%
13%
 DeSantisTrump+59
March 25
374RV
March 25
374RV
HarrisX
 DeSantis
29%
 DeSantis
29%

DeSantis

29%

Haley

18%

Ramaswamy

12%

Pence

5%

Christie

2%

Burgum

2%

Hutchinson

0%
18%
 HaleyDeSantis+11
March 7-13
1,748A
March 7-13
1,748A
Ipsos
 Trump
62%
 Trump
62%

Trump

62%

Haley

19%
19%
Haley  Trump+43
March 8-11
342RV
March 8-11
342RV
Suffolk University
 Trump
81%
 Trump
81%

Trump

81%

Haley

15%
15%
Haley  Trump+66
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

Partisan types

Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

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