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Who’s ahead in the national Republican primary polls?

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Feb. 24-28
1,114RV
Feb. 24-28
1,114RV
Haley
33%
Haley
33%

Haley

33%

Binkley

4%
4%
Binkley  Haley+29
Feb. 24-28
1,114RV
Feb. 24-28
1,114RV
Trump
79%
Trump
79%

Trump

79%

Haley

12%

Binkley

1%
12%
HaleyTrump+67
Feb. 25-27
601RV
Feb. 25-27
601RV
Trump
80%
Trump
80%

Trump

80%

Haley

12%
12%
Haley  Trump+68
Feb. 25-27
638A
Feb. 25-27
638A
Trump
79%
Trump
79%

Trump

79%

Haley

13%
13%
Haley  Trump+66
Feb. 23-25
3,756LV
Feb. 23-25
3,756LV
Trump
81%
Trump
81%

Trump

81%

Haley

18%
18%
Haley  Trump+63
Feb. 23-25
300A
Feb. 23-25
300A
Trump
75%
Trump
75%

Trump

75%

Haley

10%
10%
Haley  Trump+65
Feb. 20-23
1,093RV
Feb. 20-23
1,093RV
Haley
37%
Haley
37%

Haley

37%

Binkley

8%
8%
Binkley  Haley+29
Feb. 20-23
1,093RV
Feb. 20-23
1,093RV
Trump
76%
Trump
76%

Trump

76%

Haley

13%

Binkley

3%
13%
HaleyTrump+63
Feb. 21-22
784RV
Feb. 21-22
784RV
Trump
78%
Trump
78%

Trump

78%

Haley

14%
14%
Haley  Trump+64
Feb. 20-22
2,476LV
Feb. 20-22
2,476LV
Trump
80%
Trump
80%

Trump

80%

Haley

18%
18%
Haley  Trump+62
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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