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Who’s ahead in the national polls?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

SAMPLE TYPES:

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

DatesSamplePollsterResultNet result
Dates
Sample
PollsterResult

Polls ending Feb. 2, 2025

President: Democratic primary, 2028

Feb. 2-3, 2025
500RV
Feb. 2-3, 2025
500RV
Harris
30%
Harris
30%

Harris

30%

Buttigieg

8%

Newsom

8%

Walz

6%

Ocasio-Cortez

5%

Shapiro

5%

Booker

3%

Whitmer

3%

Pritzker

3%

Beshear

2%

Fetterman

2%

Warnock

2%

Moore

1%
8%
ButtigiegHarris+22

President: Republican primary, 2028

Feb. 2-3, 2025
1,000RV
Feb. 2-3, 2025
1,000RV
Vance
57%
Vance
57%

Vance

57%

DeSantis

13%

Ramaswamy

8%

Cruz

6%

Haley

6%

T. Scott

3%

Rubio

2%

Youngkin

1%

Noem

1%

Stefanik

1%
13%
DeSantisVance+44

Jan. 26, 2025

President: Democratic primary, 2028

Jan. 22-27, 2025
414LV
Jan. 22-27, 2025
414LV
Harris
35%
Harris
35%

Harris

35%

Buttigieg

9%

Newsom

7%

Ocasio-Cortez

6%

Shapiro

3%

Walz

3%

Whitmer

3%

Klobuchar

3%

Booker

2%

Moore

2%

Smith

2%

Pritzker

1%

O'Rourke

1%

Murphy

1%

Polis

1%

Patrick

0%
9%
ButtigiegHarris+26

President: Republican primary, 2028

Jan. 22-27, 2025
453LV
Jan. 22-27, 2025
453LV
Vance
27%
Vance
27%

Vance

27%

Trump Jr.

21%

DeSantis

8%

Ramaswamy

3%

Gabbard

3%

Rubio

3%

Haley

2%

Youngkin

2%

Abbott

2%

T. Scott

1%

Sanders

1%

Noem

1%

Hogan

1%

Stefanik

0%

Cotton

0%

R. Scott

0%
21%
Trump Jr.Vance+6

Dec. 22, 2024

President: general election, 2028

Dec. 23, 2024
656RV
Dec. 23, 2024
656RV
Whitmer
33%
Whitmer
33%

Whitmer

33%

Vance

40%
40%
Vance  Vance+7
Dec. 23, 2024
656RV
Dec. 23, 2024
656RV
Shapiro
34%
Shapiro
34%

Shapiro

34%

Vance

37%
37%
Vance  Vance+3
Dec. 23, 2024
656RV
Dec. 23, 2024
656RV
Harris
43%
Harris
43%

Harris

43%

Vance

41%
41%
Vance  Harris+2
Dec. 23, 2024
656RV
Dec. 23, 2024
656RV
Newsom
34%
Newsom
34%

Newsom

34%

Vance

37%
37%
Vance  Vance+3

Dec. 19, 2024

President: general election, 2028

Dec. 17-20, 2024
661LV
Dec. 17-20, 2024
661LV
Harris
47%
Harris
47%

Harris

47%

Vance

46%
46%
Vance  Harris+1

Dec. 15, 2024

President: Democratic primary, 2028

Dec. 11-16, 2024
428LV
Dec. 11-16, 2024
428LV
Harris
35%
Harris
35%

Harris

35%

Buttigieg

12%

Newsom

7%

Shapiro

5%

Walz

5%

Ocasio-Cortez

3%

Pritzker

3%

Whitmer

3%

O'Rourke

3%

Booker

2%

Klobuchar

1%

Moore

1%

Murphy

1%

Patrick

1%

Polis

0%
12%
ButtigiegHarris+23

President: Republican primary, 2028

Dec. 11-16, 2024
463LV
Dec. 11-16, 2024
463LV
Vance
25%
Vance
25%

Vance

25%

Trump Jr.

21%

DeSantis

9%

Haley

4%

Ramaswamy

4%

T. Scott

3%

Gabbard

2%

Youngkin

2%

Sanders

2%

Rubio

2%

Noem

1%

Cotton

1%

Abbott

1%

R. Scott

1%

Stefanik

0%

Hogan

0%
21%
Trump Jr.Vance+4

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Republican-funded

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The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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