Updated Jun. 5, 2023, at 11:44 PM

2023 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Cardinals have a <1% chance of winning the World Series.

NL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Brewers Brewers32-28	0.5	70%	59%
Pirates Pirates32-27	—	32%	20%
Cardinals Cardinals24-36	8.5	18%	9%
Cubs Cubs26-33	6.0	16%	9%
Reds Reds27-33	5.5	5%	3%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/14Sunday, May 147 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1506	+22	+0	=1528	50%
5/14Sunday, May 147 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kluber	1514	–10	+24	=1528	50%
6/6Tuesday, June 68:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Liberatore	1506	–11	+0	=1495	43%
6/6Tuesday, June 68:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Dunning	1539	–16	+24	=1547	57%
6/7Wednesday, June 78:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	43%
6/7Wednesday, June 78:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+24	=1561	57%
6/9Friday, June 98:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–2	=1457	39%
6/9Friday, June 98:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+23	=1532	61%
6/10Saturday, June 102:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	40%
6/10Saturday, June 102:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	60%
6/11Sunday, June 112:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	40%
6/11Sunday, June 112:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	60%
6/12Monday, June 127:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	–4	=1504	46%
6/12Monday, June 127:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	54%
6/13Tuesday, June 137:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+0	=1508	46%
6/13Tuesday, June 137:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	54%
6/14Wednesday, June 141:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+0	=1508	46%
6/14Wednesday, June 141:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	54%
6/16Friday, June 167:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–1	=1508	43%
6/16Friday, June 167:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+26	=1558	57%
6/17Saturday, June 174:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	43%
6/17Saturday, June 174:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	57%
6/18Sunday, June 181:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	43%
6/18Sunday, June 181:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	57%
6/19Monday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–2	=1507	56%
6/19Monday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	44%
6/20Tuesday, June 207:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	56%
6/20Tuesday, June 207:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	44%
6/21Wednesday, June 214:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	56%
6/21Wednesday, June 214:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	44%
6/24Saturday, June 241:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+2	=1488	47%
6/24Saturday, June 241:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+2	=1511	53%
6/25Sunday, June 2510 a.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	47%
6/25Sunday, June 2510 a.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	53%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:45 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	–2	=1561	54%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+26	=1535	46%
6/28Wednesday, June 287:45 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+0	=1563	54%
6/28Wednesday, June 287:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	46%
6/29Thursday, June 297:15 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+0	=1563	54%
6/29Thursday, June 297:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	46%
6/30Friday, June 308:15 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	–4	=1561	54%
6/30Friday, June 308:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	46%
7/1Saturday, July 12:15 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+0	=1565	55%
7/1Saturday, July 12:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	45%
7/2Sunday, July 22:15 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+0	=1565	55%
7/2Sunday, July 22:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	45%
7/3Monday, July 36:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–3	=1506	49%
7/3Monday, July 36:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+21	=1514	51%
7/4Tuesday, July 41:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	49%
7/4Tuesday, July 41:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	51%
7/5Wednesday, July 56:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	49%
7/5Wednesday, July 56:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	51%
7/6Thursday, July 66:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	49%
7/6Thursday, July 66:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	51%
7/7Friday, July 78:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–3	=1506	49%
7/7Friday, July 78:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+24	=1508	51%
7/8Saturday, July 82:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	50%
7/8Saturday, July 82:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+24	=1508	50%
7/9Sunday, July 92:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	50%
7/9Sunday, July 92:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+24	=1508	50%
7/14Friday, July 148:15 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+4	=1446	37%
7/14Friday, July 148:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+29	=1538	63%
7/15Saturday, July 157:15 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	37%
7/15Saturday, July 157:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	63%
7/16Sunday, July 162:15 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	37%
7/16Sunday, July 162:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	63%
7/17Monday, July 177:45 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–3	=1490	44%
7/17Monday, July 177:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	56%
7/18Tuesday, July 187:45 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	44%
7/18Tuesday, July 187:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	56%
7/19Wednesday, July 192:15 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	44%
7/19Wednesday, July 192:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	56%
7/20Thursday, July 208:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–2	=1507	49%
7/20Thursday, July 208:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	51%
7/21Friday, July 212:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	50%
7/21Friday, July 212:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	50%
7/22Saturday, July 222:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	50%
7/22Saturday, July 222:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	50%
7/23Sunday, July 232:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	50%
7/23Sunday, July 232:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	50%
7/24Monday, July 249:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–4	=1505	48%
7/24Monday, July 249:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+20	=1521	52%
7/25Tuesday, July 259:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	48%
7/25Tuesday, July 259:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+24	=1525	52%
7/26Wednesday, July 263:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	48%
7/26Wednesday, July 263:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+24	=1525	52%
7/27Thursday, July 277:45 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	–2	=1484	44%
7/27Thursday, July 277:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+21	=1530	56%
7/28Friday, July 288:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	43%
7/28Friday, July 288:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	57%
7/29Saturday, July 297:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	43%
7/29Saturday, July 297:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	57%
7/30Sunday, July 302:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	43%
7/30Sunday, July 302:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	57%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 17:45 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	49%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 17:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+26	=1535	51%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 27:45 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	49%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 27:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	51%
8/3Thursday, Aug. 37:45 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	49%
8/3Thursday, Aug. 37:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	51%
8/4Friday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	–1	=1446	38%
8/4Friday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	62%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 57:15 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+0	=1447	38%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 57:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	62%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 62:15 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+0	=1447	38%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 62:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	62%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 86:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–1	=1508	39%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 86:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	+23	=1585	61%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 96:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	39%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 96:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	+24	=1586	61%
8/10Thursday, Aug. 106:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	39%
8/10Thursday, Aug. 106:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	+24	=1586	61%
8/11Friday, Aug. 118:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–3	=1506	57%
8/11Friday, Aug. 118:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+21	=1454	43%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 127:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	57%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 127:15 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+24	=1457	43%
8/14Monday, Aug. 147:45 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	–3	=1395	31%
8/14Monday, Aug. 147:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	69%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 157:45 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	+0	=1398	32%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 157:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	68%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 166:45 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	+0	=1398	32%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 166:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	68%
8/17Thursday, Aug. 177:15 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–3	=1529	49%
8/17Thursday, Aug. 177:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	51%
8/18Friday, Aug. 188:15 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	50%
8/18Friday, Aug. 188:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	50%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 197:15 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	50%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 197:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	50%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 202:15 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	50%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 202:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	50%
8/21Monday, Aug. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–3	=1506	51%
8/21Monday, Aug. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+21	=1498	49%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	51%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	49%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 2312:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	51%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 2312:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	49%
8/25Friday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	45%
8/25Friday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+26	=1543	55%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 267:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	45%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 267:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	55%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 271:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	45%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 271:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	55%
8/28Monday, Aug. 287:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	–2	=1535	51%
8/28Monday, Aug. 287:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+21	=1530	49%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 297:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+0	=1537	51%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 297:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	49%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 302:15 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+0	=1537	51%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 302:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	49%
9/1Friday, Sept. 18:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	42%
9/1Friday, Sept. 18:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+26	=1535	58%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 27:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	42%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 27:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	58%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 32:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	42%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 32:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	58%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 57:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	39%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 57:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+22	=1582	61%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 67:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	39%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 67:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	61%
9/7Thursday, Sept. 77:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	39%
9/7Thursday, Sept. 77:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	61%
9/8Friday, Sept. 86:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–2	=1507	53%
9/8Friday, Sept. 86:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+26	=1485	47%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 96:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	54%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 96:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	46%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 101:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	54%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 101:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	46%
9/11Monday, Sept. 116:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–2	=1507	47%
9/11Monday, Sept. 116:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+22	=1529	53%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 126:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	47%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 126:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	53%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 136:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	47%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 136:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	53%
9/15Friday, Sept. 158:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	–3	=1514	47%
9/15Friday, Sept. 158:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+23	=1532	53%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 167:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	48%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 167:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	52%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 172:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	48%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 172:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	52%
9/18Monday, Sept. 187:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	–2	=1514	47%
9/18Monday, Sept. 187:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	53%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 197:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	48%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 197:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	52%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 207:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	48%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 207:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	52%
9/21Thursday, Sept. 211:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	48%
9/21Thursday, Sept. 211:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	52%
9/22Friday, Sept. 229:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–4	=1505	42%
9/22Friday, Sept. 229:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+26	=1563	58%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 238:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	43%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 238:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+24	=1561	57%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 244:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	43%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 244:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+24	=1561	57%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 267:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–2	=1507	45%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 267:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+23	=1539	55%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 277:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	45%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 277:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	55%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 287:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	45%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 287:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	55%
9/29Friday, Sept. 298:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	40%
9/29Friday, Sept. 298:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+22	=1531	60%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	40%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	60%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	40%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	60%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
6/5Monday, June 58:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1507	+3	–3	=1507	45%	3
6/5Monday, June 58:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Perez	1538	–21	+24	=1541	55%	4
6/4Sunday, June 411:35 a.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1508	+24	+0	=1532	55%	1
6/4Sunday, June 411:35 a.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Hill	1474	+2	+24	=1500	45%	2
6/3Saturday, June 34:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Montgomery	1509	+10	+0	=1519	55%	3
6/3Saturday, June 34:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Ortiz	1473	–15	+24	=1482	45%	4
6/2Friday, June 27:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1511	+7	+2	=1520	53%	5
6/2Friday, June 27:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Contreras	1472	+3	+22	=1497	47%	7
5/30Tuesday, May 307:45 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1437	+12	+0	=1449	35%	1
5/30Tuesday, May 307:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1510	+20	+24	=1554	65%	2
5/29Monday, May 292:15 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Staumont	1433	–5	–2	=1426	34%	7
5/29Monday, May 292:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1514	+6	+22	=1542	66%	0
5/28Sunday, May 281:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Montgomery	1515	+12	+0	=1527	55%	3
5/28Sunday, May 281:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Gaddis	1508	–41	+24	=1491	45%	4
5/27Saturday, May 277:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1514	+6	+0	=1520	50%	2
5/27Saturday, May 277:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bibee	1509	–11	+24	=1522	50%	1
5/26Friday, May 267:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Liberatore	1515	–8	–2	=1505	42%	3
5/26Friday, May 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1508	+26	+26	=1560	58%	4
5/25Thursday, May 2512:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1514	+16	+0	=1530	59%	2
5/25Thursday, May 2512:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Weaver	1451	–6	+24	=1469	41%	1
5/24Wednesday, May 246:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1517	+0	+0	=1517	57%	3
5/24Wednesday, May 246:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lively	1448	–4	+24	=1468	43%	10
5/23Tuesday, May 236:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1516	+9	+0	=1525	58%	8
5/23Tuesday, May 236:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1449	–4	+24	=1469	42%	5
5/22Monday, May 226:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Montgomery	1517	+16	–2	=1531	58%	5
5/22Monday, May 226:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Williamson	1448	+4	+24	=1476	42%	6
5/21Sunday, May 212:15 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1566	+24	+0	=1590	57%	5
5/21Sunday, May 212:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1514	+4	+24	=1542	43%	10
5/20Saturday, May 207:15 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Syndergaard	1567	–19	+0	=1548	50%	5
5/20Saturday, May 207:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1513	+12	+24	=1549	50%	6
5/19Friday, May 198:15 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1566	+18	+0	=1584	57%	5
5/19Friday, May 198:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1515	–3	+24	=1536	43%	0
5/18Thursday, May 187:45 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1569	+13	–4	=1578	55%	8
5/18Thursday, May 187:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1512	+10	+24	=1546	45%	16
5/17Wednesday, May 177:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1528	+25	+0	=1553	55%	0
5/17Wednesday, May 177:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Liberatore	1510	–15	+24	=1519	45%	3
5/16Tuesday, May 167:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Miley	1526	–16	+0	=1510	44%	3
5/16Tuesday, May 167:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Montgomery	1511	+20	+24	=1555	56%	2
5/15Monday, May 157:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1532	+17	–2	=1547	53%	1
5/15Monday, May 157:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1506	+0	+21	=1527	47%	18
5/13Saturday, May 134:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1505	–2	+0	=1503	42%	4
5/13Saturday, May 134:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Sale	1519	+14	+24	=1557	58%	3
5/12Friday, May 127:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1503	+15	–1	=1517	44%	8
5/12Friday, May 127:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Paxton	1521	+16	+23	=1560	56%	6
5/10Wednesday, May 107:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Montgomery	1506	+26	+0	=1532	50%	4
5/10Wednesday, May 107:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1494	+12	+24	=1530	50%	10
5/9Tuesday, May 97:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1504	+1	+0	=1505	48%	6
5/9Tuesday, May 97:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Taillon	1496	+2	+24	=1522	52%	4
5/8Monday, May 87:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1503	+11	–2	=1512	46%	3
5/8Monday, May 87:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1497	+15	+24	=1536	54%	1
5/7Sunday, May 72:15 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Faedo	1455	–31	+0	=1424	37%	6
5/7Sunday, May 72:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1501	–5	+24	=1520	63%	12
5/6Saturday, May 62:15 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Turnbull	1454	+2	+0	=1456	38%	6
5/6Saturday, May 62:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1503	+16	+24	=1543	62%	5
5/5Friday, May 58:15 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1452	–12	–2	=1438	34%	5
5/5Friday, May 58:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Montgomery	1504	+27	+24	=1555	66%	4
5/4Thursday, May 41:15 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Canning	1519	–19	+0	=1500	44%	11
5/4Thursday, May 41:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1506	+10	+24	=1540	56%	7
5/3Wednesday, May 37:45 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Ohtani	1518	+46	+0	=1564	53%	6
5/3Wednesday, May 37:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1508	+9	+24	=1541	47%	4
5/2Tuesday, May 27:45 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1516	+4	+0	=1520	49%	5
5/2Tuesday, May 27:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1510	–6	+22	=1526	51%	1
4/30Sunday, April 304:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Woodford	1511	–13	+0	=1498	41%	3
4/30Sunday, April 304:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Syndergaard	1554	–18	+24	=1560	59%	6
4/29Saturday, April 299:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Montgomery	1512	+22	+0	=1534	40%	0
4/29Saturday, April 299:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1554	+27	+24	=1605	60%	1
4/28Friday, April 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1514	+13	–2	=1525	44%	3
4/28Friday, April 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1552	–5	+20	=1567	56%	7
4/27Thursday, April 273:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1511	+6	+0	=1517	46%	6
4/27Thursday, April 273:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1505	+15	+24	=1544	54%	0
4/26Wednesday, April 269:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1513	–3	+0	=1510	48%	3
4/26Wednesday, April 269:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	DeSclafani	1503	–3	+24	=1524	52%	7
4/25Tuesday, April 259:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Woodford	1514	–13	+0	=1501	46%	4
4/25Tuesday, April 259:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Brebbia (open)	1502	+1	+24	=1527	54%	5
4/24Monday, April 249:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Montgomery	1516	+20	–3	=1533	50%	0
4/24Monday, April 249:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cobb	1500	+7	+24	=1531	50%	4
4/23Sunday, April 234:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1514	+13	+0	=1527	52%	7
4/23Sunday, April 234:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1514	–27	+24	=1511	48%	3
4/22Saturday, April 229:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1515	+8	+0	=1523	43%	4
4/22Saturday, April 229:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Castillo	1513	+37	+24	=1574	57%	5
4/21Friday, April 2110:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1516	–3	–2	=1511	46%	2
4/21Friday, April 2110:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kirby	1511	+1	+26	=1538	54%	5
4/19Wednesday, April 191:15 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Bumgarner	1494	–35	+0	=1459	40%	5
4/19Wednesday, April 191:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Woodford	1514	–9	+24	=1529	60%	14
4/18Tuesday, April 187:45 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Jameson	1492	+1	+0	=1493	40%	8
4/18Tuesday, April 187:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Montgomery	1515	+26	+24	=1565	60%	7
4/17Monday, April 177:45 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Kelly	1490	+14	–3	=1501	42%	6
4/17Monday, April 177:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1517	+12	+24	=1553	58%	3
4/16Sunday, April 162:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1465	+12	+0	=1477	40%	4
4/16Sunday, April 162:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1516	+6	+24	=1546	60%	5
4/15Saturday, April 152:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Contreras	1463	+4	+0	=1467	40%	6
4/15Saturday, April 152:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1518	–5	+24	=1537	60%	3
4/14Friday, April 148:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1464	–2	+0	=1462	41%	0
4/14Friday, April 148:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Woodford	1517	–13	+24	=1528	59%	3
4/13Thursday, April 137:45 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Velasquez	1461	–19	–3	=1439	32%	5
4/13Thursday, April 137:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Montgomery	1520	+26	+21	=1567	68%	0
4/12Wednesday, April 123:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1519	+11	+0	=1530	63%	7
4/12Wednesday, April 123:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Urena	1443	–27	+24	=1440	37%	4
4/11Tuesday, April 118:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1518	+13	+0	=1531	56%	9
4/11Tuesday, April 118:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1444	+24	+24	=1492	44%	6
4/10Monday, April 108:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1520	–4	–3	=1513	55%	4
4/10Monday, April 108:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1442	+15	+24	=1481	45%	7
4/9Sunday, April 92:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Woodford	1522	–14	+0	=1508	41%	1
4/9Sunday, April 92:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1535	+14	+24	=1573	59%	6
4/8Saturday, April 87:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Montgomery	1519	+20	+0	=1539	48%	6
4/8Saturday, April 87:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1538	–11	+24	=1551	52%	0
4/7Friday, April 78:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1521	+12	+0	=1533	42%	0
4/7Friday, April 78:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1536	+27	+26	=1589	58%	4
4/5Wednesday, April 51:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1560	–11	+0	=1549	48%	5
4/5Wednesday, April 51:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1522	+16	+24	=1562	52%	2
4/4Tuesday, April 47:45 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Dodd	1558	–33	+0	=1525	47%	4
4/4Tuesday, April 47:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1524	–1	+24	=1547	53%	1
4/3Monday, April 37:45 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1556	–5	–3	=1548	50%	8
4/3Monday, April 37:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Woodford	1526	–4	+24	=1546	50%	4
4/2Sunday, April 22:15 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Bassitt	1541	+8	+0	=1549	47%	4
4/2Sunday, April 22:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Montgomery	1524	+19	+24	=1567	53%	9
4/1Saturday, April 12:15 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1543	+17	+2	=1562	51%	1
4/1Saturday, April 12:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1522	+8	+26	=1556	49%	4
3/30Thursday, March 304:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1542	+35	–3	=1574	51%	10
3/30Thursday, March 304:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1523	+18	+24	=1565	49%	9

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.