Updated Jun. 5, 2023, at 11:44 PM

2023 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Nationals have a <1% chance of winning the World Series.

NL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Braves Braves35-24	—	95%	79%
Mets Mets29-30	6.0	53%	11%
Phillies Phillies28-32	7.5	36%	6%
Marlins Marlins33-28	3.0	35%	4%
Nationals Nationals25-33	9.5	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/14Sunday, May 144:35 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Scherzer	1529	+36	+0	=1565	63%
5/14Sunday, May 144:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Irvin	1441	–4	+24	=1461	37%
6/6Tuesday, June 67:05 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Henry	1499	–14	–2	=1483	53%
6/6Tuesday, June 67:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Irvin	1441	–4	+26	=1463	47%
6/7Wednesday, June 77:05 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+0	=1501	55%
6/7Wednesday, June 77:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	45%
6/8Thursday, June 81:05 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+0	=1501	55%
6/8Thursday, June 81:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	45%
6/9Friday, June 97:20 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–3	=1439	30%
6/9Friday, June 97:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	70%
6/10Saturday, June 104:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	31%
6/10Saturday, June 104:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	69%
6/11Sunday, June 111:30 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	31%
6/11Sunday, June 111:30 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	69%
6/13Tuesday, June 138:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–1	=1441	30%
6/13Tuesday, June 138:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+23	=1586	70%
6/14Wednesday, June 148:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	30%
6/14Wednesday, June 148:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+24	=1587	70%
6/15Thursday, June 158:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	30%
6/15Thursday, June 158:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+24	=1587	70%
6/16Friday, June 167:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–2	=1491	54%
6/16Friday, June 167:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+21	=1463	46%
6/17Saturday, June 174:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	54%
6/17Saturday, June 174:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	46%
6/18Sunday, June 181:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	54%
6/18Sunday, June 181:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	46%
6/19Monday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–2	=1507	56%
6/19Monday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	44%
6/20Tuesday, June 207:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	56%
6/20Tuesday, June 207:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	44%
6/21Wednesday, June 214:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	56%
6/21Wednesday, June 214:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	44%
6/23Friday, June 239:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–2	=1440	34%
6/23Friday, June 239:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+22	=1559	66%
6/24Saturday, June 248:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	34%
6/24Saturday, June 248:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+24	=1561	66%
6/25Sunday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	34%
6/25Sunday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+24	=1561	66%
6/26Monday, June 269:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–3	=1439	37%
6/26Monday, June 269:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+20	=1531	63%
6/27Tuesday, June 279:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	37%
6/27Tuesday, June 279:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+24	=1535	63%
6/28Wednesday, June 284:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	37%
6/28Wednesday, June 284:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+24	=1535	63%
6/30Friday, June 306:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–2	=1440	36%
6/30Friday, June 306:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+21	=1538	64%
7/1Saturday, July 14:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	36%
7/1Saturday, July 14:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	64%
7/2Sunday, July 21:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	36%
7/2Sunday, July 21:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	64%
7/3Monday, July 36:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–2	=1457	49%
7/3Monday, July 36:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+22	=1464	51%
7/4Tuesday, July 411:05 a.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	49%
7/4Tuesday, July 411:05 a.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	51%
7/5Wednesday, July 57:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	49%
7/5Wednesday, July 57:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	51%
7/6Thursday, July 61:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	49%
7/6Thursday, July 61:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	51%
7/7Friday, July 77:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	–2	=1535	60%
7/7Friday, July 77:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	40%
7/8Saturday, July 84:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+0	=1537	60%
7/8Saturday, July 84:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	40%
7/9Sunday, July 912:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+0	=1537	60%
7/9Sunday, July 912:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	40%
7/14Friday, July 148:15 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+4	=1446	37%
7/14Friday, July 148:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+29	=1538	63%
7/15Saturday, July 157:15 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	37%
7/15Saturday, July 157:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	63%
7/16Sunday, July 162:15 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	37%
7/16Sunday, July 162:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	63%
7/17Monday, July 178:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–2	=1440	40%
7/17Monday, July 178:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	60%
7/18Tuesday, July 188:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	40%
7/18Tuesday, July 188:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	60%
7/19Wednesday, July 198:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	40%
7/19Wednesday, July 198:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	60%
7/21Friday, July 217:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	–2	=1506	56%
7/21Friday, July 217:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+23	=1465	44%
7/22Saturday, July 227:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+0	=1508	56%
7/22Saturday, July 227:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	44%
7/23Sunday, July 231:35 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+0	=1508	56%
7/23Sunday, July 231:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	44%
7/24Monday, July 247:05 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	–3	=1444	47%
7/24Monday, July 247:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	53%
7/25Tuesday, July 257:05 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+0	=1447	47%
7/25Tuesday, July 257:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	53%
7/26Wednesday, July 2612:05 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+0	=1447	47%
7/26Wednesday, July 2612:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	53%
7/27Thursday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–2	=1440	34%
7/27Thursday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+23	=1555	66%
7/28Friday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	34%
7/28Friday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	66%
7/29Saturday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	34%
7/29Saturday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	66%
7/30Sunday, July 301:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	34%
7/30Sunday, July 301:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	66%
7/31Monday, July 317:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	–3	=1513	57%
7/31Monday, July 317:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+22	=1464	43%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	57%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	43%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 21:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	57%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 21:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	43%
8/4Friday, Aug. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	44%
8/4Friday, Aug. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+22	=1481	56%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 54:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	44%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 54:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	56%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 61:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	44%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 61:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	56%
8/7Monday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–2	=1440	36%
8/7Monday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	64%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 86:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	36%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 86:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	64%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 96:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	36%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 96:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	64%
8/10Thursday, Aug. 106:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	36%
8/10Thursday, Aug. 106:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	64%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	–2	=1396	40%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+22	=1464	60%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	+0	=1398	40%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	60%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:35 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	+0	=1398	40%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	60%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 157:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	57%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 157:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+26	=1468	43%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 167:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	57%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 167:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	43%
8/17Thursday, Aug. 174:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	57%
8/17Thursday, Aug. 174:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	43%
8/18Friday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	57%
8/18Friday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	43%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 194:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	57%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 194:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	43%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 207 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	61%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 207 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	39%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	30%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+26	=1591	70%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	30%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+24	=1589	70%
8/24Thursday, Aug. 241:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	30%
8/24Thursday, Aug. 241:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+24	=1589	70%
8/25Friday, Aug. 256:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–3	=1439	39%
8/25Friday, Aug. 256:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+22	=1515	61%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 264:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	39%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 264:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	61%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 271:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	39%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 271:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	61%
8/28Monday, Aug. 287:07 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–3	=1439	32%
8/28Monday, Aug. 287:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	68%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 297:07 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	33%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	67%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 303:07 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	33%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 303:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	67%
8/31Thursday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–3	=1490	54%
8/31Thursday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+22	=1464	46%
9/1Friday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	54%
9/1Friday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	46%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 24:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	54%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 24:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	46%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 31:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	54%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 31:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	46%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	59%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+26	=1468	41%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 67:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	59%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 67:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	41%
9/8Friday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	–3	=1558	63%
9/8Friday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+26	=1468	37%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 94:05 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+0	=1561	63%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 94:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	37%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 101:35 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+0	=1561	63%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 101:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	37%
9/11Monday, Sept. 116:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–2	=1440	42%
9/11Monday, Sept. 116:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+22	=1499	58%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 126:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	42%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 126:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	58%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 136:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	42%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 136:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	58%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 1412:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	42%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 1412:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	58%
9/15Friday, Sept. 158:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–2	=1440	36%
9/15Friday, Sept. 158:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	64%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	36%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	64%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 172:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	36%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 172:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	64%
9/18Monday, Sept. 187:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	–3	=1481	53%
9/18Monday, Sept. 187:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+21	=1463	47%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+0	=1484	53%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	47%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+0	=1484	53%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	47%
9/21Thursday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	–3	=1557	63%
9/21Thursday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	37%
9/22Friday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+0	=1560	63%
9/22Friday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	37%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 231:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+0	=1560	63%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 231:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	37%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 241:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+0	=1560	63%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 241:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	37%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 266:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+1	=1443	38%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 266:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	62%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 276:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	38%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 276:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	62%
9/29Friday, Sept. 297:20 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–1	=1441	31%
9/29Friday, Sept. 297:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	69%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:20 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	31%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	69%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	31%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	69%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
6/4Sunday, June 41:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Suarez	1512	–1	+0	=1511	55%	11
6/4Sunday, June 41:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1444	+6	+24	=1474	45%	3
6/3Saturday, June 34:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Strahm	1511	–14	+0	=1497	52%	4
6/3Saturday, June 34:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1445	+16	+24	=1485	48%	2
6/2Friday, June 27:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1512	+36	–2	=1546	60%	7
6/2Friday, June 27:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1444	+10	+22	=1476	40%	8
5/31Wednesday, May 314:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1441	–11	+0	=1430	30%	10
5/31Wednesday, May 314:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Syndergaard	1568	–17	+24	=1575	70%	6
5/30Tuesday, May 3010:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Irvin	1442	–3	+0	=1439	27%	3
5/30Tuesday, May 3010:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1567	+22	+24	=1613	73%	9
5/29Monday, May 299:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1443	+7	–3	=1447	33%	1
5/29Monday, May 299:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Miller	1565	–16	+20	=1569	67%	6
5/28Sunday, May 282:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1444	+9	+0	=1453	51%	2
5/28Sunday, May 282:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1432	–11	+24	=1445	49%	3
5/27Saturday, May 274:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1443	+11	+0	=1454	48%	4
5/27Saturday, May 274:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1433	+7	+24	=1464	52%	2
5/26Friday, May 268:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1441	–9	–3	=1429	46%	12
5/26Friday, May 268:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lyles	1435	–6	+26	=1455	54%	10
5/25Thursday, May 254:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1532	+1	+0	=1533	60%	8
5/25Thursday, May 254:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Irvin	1442	–4	+24	=1462	40%	6
5/24Wednesday, May 247:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Weathers	1534	–44	+0	=1490	52%	3
5/24Wednesday, May 247:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1441	+8	+24	=1473	48%	5
5/23Tuesday, May 237:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1533	+26	–2	=1557	61%	7
5/23Tuesday, May 237:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1442	+12	+26	=1480	39%	4
5/21Sunday, May 211:35 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Wentz	1453	–12	+0	=1441	45%	4
5/21Sunday, May 211:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1441	+10	+24	=1475	55%	6
5/20Saturday, May 204:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Faedo	1455	–27	+0	=1428	47%	2
5/20Saturday, May 204:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1439	–11	+24	=1452	53%	5
5/19Friday, May 197:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1453	–17	+0	=1436	45%	8
5/19Friday, May 197:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Irvin	1441	+8	+21	=1470	55%	6
5/18Thursday, May 181:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1442	+6	+0	=1448	45%	3
5/18Thursday, May 181:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Perez	1486	–25	+24	=1485	55%	5
5/17Wednesday, May 176:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1443	+12	+0	=1455	43%	3
5/17Wednesday, May 176:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1485	–6	+24	=1503	57%	4
5/16Tuesday, May 166:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1444	+8	–3	=1449	40%	4
5/16Tuesday, May 166:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1484	+6	+26	=1516	60%	5
5/15Monday, May 154:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1534	–18	+0	=1516	59%	3
5/15Monday, May 154:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1440	–15	+24	=1449	41%	10
5/13Saturday, May 134:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lucchesi	1535	–8	+0	=1527	58%	2
5/13Saturday, May 134:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1439	+5	+24	=1468	42%	3
5/12Friday, May 127:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1534	–14	–2	=1518	56%	3
5/12Friday, May 127:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1440	+11	+22	=1473	44%	2
5/10Wednesday, May 103:45 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1437	+8	+0	=1445	43%	11
5/10Wednesday, May 103:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Manaea	1501	–30	+24	=1495	57%	6
5/9Tuesday, May 99:45 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1438	–14	+0	=1424	34%	1
5/9Tuesday, May 99:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1500	+18	+24	=1542	66%	4
5/8Monday, May 89:45 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Irvin	1436	+4	–3	=1437	37%	5
5/8Monday, May 89:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	DeSclafani	1503	+3	+24	=1530	63%	1
5/7Sunday, May 74:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1435	+10	+0	=1445	42%	9
5/7Sunday, May 74:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Nelson	1496	–18	+24	=1502	58%	8
5/6Saturday, May 68:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1435	+11	+0	=1446	43%	7
5/6Saturday, May 68:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Henry	1495	–26	+24	=1493	57%	8
5/5Friday, May 59:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1436	+9	–4	=1441	37%	1
5/5Friday, May 59:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Kelly	1494	+20	+23	=1537	63%	3
5/4Thursday, May 41:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Taillon	1497	+5	+0	=1502	59%	3
5/4Thursday, May 41:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1435	–19	+24	=1440	41%	4
5/3Wednesday, May 37:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1498	+15	+0	=1513	58%	1
5/3Wednesday, May 37:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Irvin	1434	+2	+24	=1460	42%	2
5/2Tuesday, May 27:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Wesneski	1500	–17	+0	=1483	53%	1
5/2Tuesday, May 27:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1432	+9	+24	=1465	47%	4
5/1Monday, May 17:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1498	+4	–3	=1499	54%	5
5/1Monday, May 17:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1434	+16	+24	=1474	46%	1
4/30Sunday, April 301:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1487	–2	+0	=1485	53%	2
4/30Sunday, April 301:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1431	+8	+24	=1463	47%	7
4/29Saturday, April 296:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Velasquez	1483	–12	+0	=1471	53%	16
4/29Saturday, April 296:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Kuhl	1435	–8	+24	=1451	47%	1
4/29Saturday, April 291:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Hill	1481	+2	+0	=1483	56%	6
4/29Saturday, April 291:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1437	–19	+24	=1442	44%	3
4/27Thursday, April 277:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1437	+11	+0	=1448	33%	8
4/27Thursday, April 277:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lucchesi	1550	–4	+24	=1570	67%	9
4/26Wednesday, April 267:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1435	+11	+0	=1446	36%	4
4/26Wednesday, April 267:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1553	–27	+24	=1550	64%	1
4/25Tuesday, April 257:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1432	+2	–1	=1433	34%	5
4/25Tuesday, April 257:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Butto	1556	–32	+22	=1546	66%	0
4/23Sunday, April 232:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1433	–18	+0	=1415	32%	1
4/23Sunday, April 232:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1522	+0	+24	=1546	68%	3
4/22Saturday, April 222:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Kuhl	1429	–7	+0	=1422	31%	10
4/22Saturday, April 222:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Lopez	1526	+8	+24	=1558	69%	4
4/21Friday, April 218:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1428	+11	–1	=1438	36%	3
4/21Friday, April 218:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Mahle	1527	–7	+21	=1541	64%	2
4/19Wednesday, April 197:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1490	+12	+0	=1502	55%	4
4/19Wednesday, April 197:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1429	+12	+24	=1465	45%	0
4/18Tuesday, April 187:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1489	+1	–1	=1489	55%	1
4/18Tuesday, April 187:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1430	+2	+26	=1458	45%	0
4/16Sunday, April 161:35 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1532	+37	+0	=1569	69%	6
4/16Sunday, April 161:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1429	–20	+24	=1433	31%	7
4/15Saturday, April 154:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1530	–27	+0	=1503	58%	6
4/15Saturday, April 154:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Kuhl	1430	–2	+24	=1452	42%	4
4/14Friday, April 147:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1530	–5	+0	=1525	59%	4
4/14Friday, April 147:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1431	+10	+22	=1463	41%	3
4/12Wednesday, April 124:07 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1431	+13	+0	=1444	40%	2
4/12Wednesday, April 124:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Canning	1517	–26	+24	=1515	60%	3
4/11Tuesday, April 119:38 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1432	+1	+0	=1433	30%	0
4/11Tuesday, April 119:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Ohtani	1517	+42	+24	=1583	70%	2
4/10Monday, April 109:38 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1430	–19	–3	=1408	34%	6
4/10Monday, April 109:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Suarez	1519	–21	+24	=1522	66%	4
4/9Sunday, April 93:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Kuhl	1431	+0	+0	=1431	46%	6
4/9Sunday, April 93:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Feltner	1441	–8	+24	=1457	54%	7
4/8Saturday, April 88:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1430	+7	+0	=1437	46%	7
4/8Saturday, April 88:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gomber	1443	+0	+24	=1467	54%	6
4/7Friday, April 78:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1428	+10	+0	=1438	49%	10
4/7Friday, April 78:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Urena	1445	–21	+24	=1448	51%	5
4/6Thursday, April 64:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1428	–3	–4	=1421	41%	0
4/6Thursday, April 64:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1444	+20	+23	=1487	59%	1
4/5Wednesday, April 51:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1536	+13	+0	=1549	65%	7
4/5Wednesday, April 51:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1430	–15	+24	=1439	35%	2
4/4Tuesday, April 47:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fleming	1534	–55	+0	=1479	53%	10
4/4Tuesday, April 47:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Kuhl	1432	+2	+24	=1458	47%	6
4/3Monday, April 37:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Rasmussen	1533	+8	–3	=1538	60%	6
4/3Monday, April 37:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1433	+10	+24	=1467	40%	2
4/2Sunday, April 21:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Shuster	1558	–34	+0	=1524	59%	1
4/2Sunday, April 21:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1431	+5	+24	=1460	41%	4
4/1Saturday, April 14:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1556	+20	+2	=1578	67%	7
4/1Saturday, April 14:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1432	+0	+26	=1458	33%	1
3/30Thursday, March 301:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1555	+21	–3	=1573	68%	7
3/30Thursday, March 301:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1434	–13	+24	=1445	32%	2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.