Updated Jun. 5, 2023, at 11:44 PM

2023 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Twins have a 4% chance of winning the World Series.

AL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Twins Twins31-29	—	70%	67%
Guardians Guardians27-32	3.5	28%	24%
White Sox White Sox26-35	5.5	7%	6%
Tigers Tigers26-32	4.0	3%	2%
Royals Royals18-42	13.0	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
6/6Tuesday, June 66:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Varland	1527	–13	–1	=1513	41%
6/6Tuesday, June 66:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Eflin	1565	–8	+21	=1578	59%
6/7Wednesday, June 76:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	42%
6/7Wednesday, June 76:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	+24	=1586	58%
6/8Thursday, June 81:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	42%
6/8Thursday, June 81:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	+24	=1586	58%
6/9Friday, June 97:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	–3	=1525	44%
6/9Friday, June 97:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	56%
6/10Saturday, June 103:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	44%
6/10Saturday, June 103:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	56%
6/11Sunday, June 111:37 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	44%
6/11Sunday, June 111:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	56%
6/13Tuesday, June 137:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	45%
6/13Tuesday, June 137:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+23	=1551	55%
6/14Wednesday, June 141:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	45%
6/14Wednesday, June 141:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	55%
6/15Thursday, June 157:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	–3	=1446	35%
6/15Thursday, June 157:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	65%
6/16Friday, June 168:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+0	=1449	36%
6/16Friday, June 168:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	64%
6/17Saturday, June 172:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+0	=1449	36%
6/17Saturday, June 172:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	64%
6/18Sunday, June 182:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+0	=1449	36%
6/18Sunday, June 182:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	64%
6/19Monday, June 197:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	–3	=1513	44%
6/19Monday, June 197:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	56%
6/20Tuesday, June 207:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	45%
6/20Tuesday, June 207:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	55%
6/21Wednesday, June 217:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	45%
6/21Wednesday, June 217:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	55%
6/22Thursday, June 221:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	45%
6/22Thursday, June 221:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	55%
6/23Friday, June 236:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	–3	=1525	57%
6/23Friday, June 236:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+26	=1475	43%
6/24Saturday, June 247:15 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	58%
6/24Saturday, June 247:15 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+24	=1473	42%
6/25Sunday, June 251:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	58%
6/25Sunday, June 251:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+24	=1473	42%
6/26Monday, June 267:20 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	–3	=1525	42%
6/26Monday, June 267:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+22	=1582	58%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:20 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	42%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	58%
6/28Wednesday, June 2812:20 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	42%
6/28Wednesday, June 2812:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	58%
6/30Friday, June 307:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	–1	=1527	49%
6/30Friday, June 307:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+26	=1533	51%
7/1Saturday, July 14:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	50%
7/1Saturday, July 14:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	50%
7/2Sunday, July 212:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	50%
7/2Sunday, July 212:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	50%
7/3Monday, July 37:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	–2	=1431	33%
7/3Monday, July 37:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+21	=1549	67%
7/4Tuesday, July 42:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+0	=1433	33%
7/4Tuesday, July 42:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	67%
7/5Wednesday, July 57:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+0	=1433	33%
7/5Wednesday, July 57:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	67%
7/7Friday, July 78:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	–3	=1504	43%
7/7Friday, July 78:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+26	=1554	57%
7/8Saturday, July 82:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+0	=1507	43%
7/8Saturday, July 82:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	57%
7/9Sunday, July 92:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+0	=1507	43%
7/9Sunday, July 92:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	57%
7/14Friday, July 149:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+3	=1531	65%
7/14Friday, July 149:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	+27	=1425	35%
7/15Saturday, July 157:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	65%
7/15Saturday, July 157:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	+24	=1422	35%
7/16Sunday, July 164:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	65%
7/16Sunday, July 164:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	+24	=1422	35%
7/17Monday, July 179:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	–3	=1525	49%
7/17Monday, July 179:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+24	=1535	51%
7/18Tuesday, July 189:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	49%
7/18Tuesday, July 189:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+24	=1535	51%
7/19Wednesday, July 199:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	49%
7/19Wednesday, July 199:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+24	=1535	51%
7/20Thursday, July 203:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	49%
7/20Thursday, July 203:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+24	=1535	51%
7/21Friday, July 218:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	–3	=1481	40%
7/21Friday, July 218:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+21	=1549	60%
7/22Saturday, July 227:15 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+0	=1484	40%
7/22Saturday, July 227:15 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	60%
7/23Sunday, July 232:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+0	=1484	40%
7/23Sunday, July 232:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	60%
7/24Monday, July 247:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	–3	=1508	43%
7/24Monday, July 247:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	57%
7/25Tuesday, July 257:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+0	=1511	44%
7/25Tuesday, July 257:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	56%
7/26Wednesday, July 261:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+0	=1511	44%
7/26Wednesday, July 261:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	56%
7/28Friday, July 288:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	60%
7/28Friday, July 288:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+23	=1456	40%
7/29Saturday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	60%
7/29Saturday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+24	=1457	40%
7/30Sunday, July 302:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	60%
7/30Sunday, July 302:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+24	=1457	40%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 17:45 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	49%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 17:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+26	=1535	51%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 27:45 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	49%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 27:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	51%
8/3Thursday, Aug. 37:45 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	49%
8/3Thursday, Aug. 37:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	51%
8/4Friday, Aug. 48:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	–4	=1497	42%
8/4Friday, Aug. 48:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+22	=1550	58%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+0	=1501	43%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	57%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 62:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+0	=1501	43%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 62:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	57%
8/7Monday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	–3	=1525	58%
8/7Monday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+24	=1473	42%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 86:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	58%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 86:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+24	=1473	42%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	58%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+24	=1473	42%
8/10Thursday, Aug. 101:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	58%
8/10Thursday, Aug. 101:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+24	=1473	42%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	–2	=1526	48%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	52%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 126:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	48%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 126:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	52%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	48%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	52%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 157:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	–1	=1448	36%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 157:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+23	=1551	64%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 161:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+0	=1449	36%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 161:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	64%
8/18Friday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	–1	=1476	39%
8/18Friday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+26	=1554	61%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	39%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	61%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 202:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	39%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 202:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	61%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 228:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	49%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 228:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+23	=1539	51%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 232:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	48%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 232:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	52%
8/24Thursday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	–1	=1536	48%
8/24Thursday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+22	=1550	52%
8/25Friday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+0	=1537	48%
8/25Friday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	52%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 267:15 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+0	=1537	48%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 267:15 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	52%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 272:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+0	=1537	48%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 272:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	52%
8/28Monday, Aug. 287:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	–3	=1513	44%
8/28Monday, Aug. 287:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	56%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 297:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	+0	=1516	45%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 297:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	55%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	+0	=1516	45%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	55%
9/1Friday, Sept. 18:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	–1	=1527	46%
9/1Friday, Sept. 18:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+23	=1560	54%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 27:15 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	45%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 27:15 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+24	=1561	55%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 32:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	45%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 32:35 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+24	=1561	55%
9/4Monday, Sept. 46:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	–3	=1525	48%
9/4Monday, Sept. 46:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	+24	=1540	52%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 56:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	48%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 56:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	+24	=1540	52%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	48%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	+24	=1540	52%
9/8Friday, Sept. 88:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–1	=1531	47%
9/8Friday, Sept. 88:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+23	=1551	53%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 92:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	47%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 92:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	53%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 102:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	47%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 102:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	53%
9/11Monday, Sept. 117:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	–3	=1559	51%
9/11Monday, Sept. 117:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	49%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 127:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	+0	=1562	51%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 127:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	49%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	+0	=1562	51%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	49%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	–2	=1526	53%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+24	=1508	47%
9/15Friday, Sept. 157:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	53%
9/15Friday, Sept. 157:40 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+24	=1508	47%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	53%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+24	=1508	47%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 172:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	53%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 172:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+24	=1508	47%
9/18Monday, Sept. 186:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	–2	=1526	57%
9/18Monday, Sept. 186:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+21	=1480	43%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 196:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	57%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 196:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	43%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 2012:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	57%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 2012:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	43%
9/22Friday, Sept. 228:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1511	+2	–3	=1510	44%
9/22Friday, Sept. 228:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+23	=1551	56%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 232:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1511	+2	+0	=1513	44%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 232:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	56%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 242:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1511	+2	+0	=1513	44%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 242:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	56%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 267:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	–2	=1396	29%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 267:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+26	=1554	71%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 277:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	+0	=1398	29%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 277:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	71%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 281:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	+0	=1398	29%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 281:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	71%
9/29Friday, Sept. 298:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	–3	=1525	58%
9/29Friday, Sept. 298:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+24	=1471	42%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 308:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	58%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 308:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+24	=1471	42%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	58%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+24	=1471	42%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
6/4Sunday, June 42:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1512	+33	+0	=1545	47%	2
6/4Sunday, June 42:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1529	+12	+24	=1565	53%	1
6/3Saturday, June 37:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Allen	1510	–4	+0	=1506	41%	4
6/3Saturday, June 37:15 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1530	+14	+24	=1568	59%	2
6/2Friday, June 28:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1511	–2	+0	=1509	43%	0
6/2Friday, June 28:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1529	+7	+24	=1560	57%	1
6/1Thursday, June 17:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bibee	1512	–1	–3	=1508	44%	6
6/1Thursday, June 17:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Lopez	1528	–3	+21	=1546	56%	7
5/31Wednesday, May 318:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Varland	1525	–21	+0	=1504	39%	8
5/31Wednesday, May 318:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Brown	1561	–3	+24	=1582	61%	2
5/30Tuesday, May 308:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1527	+18	+0	=1545	51%	1
5/30Tuesday, May 308:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Bielak	1559	–46	+24	=1537	49%	5
5/29Monday, May 294:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1526	+15	–3	=1538	49%	7
5/29Monday, May 294:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	France	1560	–35	+20	=1545	51%	5
5/28Sunday, May 282:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1540	–4	+0	=1536	47%	3
5/28Sunday, May 282:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1528	+5	+24	=1557	53%	0
5/27Saturday, May 272:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Bassitt	1541	+14	+0	=1555	51%	7
5/27Saturday, May 272:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Lopez	1526	–1	+24	=1549	49%	9
5/26Friday, May 268:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1540	+25	–3	=1562	54%	3
5/26Friday, May 268:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Varland	1527	–21	+26	=1532	46%	1
5/24Wednesday, May 241:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	DeSclafani	1504	+2	+0	=1506	41%	1
5/24Wednesday, May 241:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1526	+17	+24	=1567	59%	7
5/23Tuesday, May 237:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cobb	1503	+13	+0	=1516	43%	4
5/23Tuesday, May 237:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1527	+15	+24	=1566	57%	3
5/22Monday, May 227:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Brebbia (open)	1501	+2	–4	=1499	42%	4
5/22Monday, May 227:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1529	+6	+20	=1555	58%	1
5/21Sunday, May 214:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Lopez	1530	–3	+0	=1527	42%	2
5/21Sunday, May 214:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Ohtani	1512	+43	+24	=1579	58%	4
5/20Saturday, May 2010:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Varland	1527	–21	+0	=1506	44%	6
5/20Saturday, May 2010:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1515	+11	+24	=1550	56%	2
5/19Friday, May 199:38 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1529	+17	+1	=1547	52%	4
5/19Friday, May 199:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Detmers	1514	–3	+20	=1531	48%	5
5/17Wednesday, May 173:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1530	+17	+0	=1547	44%	3
5/17Wednesday, May 173:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1567	–1	+24	=1590	56%	7
5/16Tuesday, May 1610:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1528	+5	+0	=1533	38%	5
5/16Tuesday, May 1610:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1570	+25	+24	=1619	62%	1
5/15Monday, May 1510:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Lopez	1529	+1	–4	=1526	43%	8
5/15Monday, May 1510:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Syndergaard	1569	–21	+24	=1572	57%	9
5/14Sunday, May 142:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1496	+19	+0	=1515	49%	3
5/14Sunday, May 142:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Varland	1525	–25	+24	=1524	51%	16
5/13Saturday, May 132:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Wesneski	1499	–9	+0	=1490	40%	1
5/13Saturday, May 132:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1522	+13	+24	=1559	60%	11
5/12Friday, May 128:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1497	+2	+0	=1499	41%	6
5/12Friday, May 128:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1525	+16	+24	=1565	59%	2
5/11Thursday, May 111:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1542	+28	+0	=1570	52%	3
5/11Thursday, May 111:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1523	+6	+24	=1553	48%	5
5/10Wednesday, May 107:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lugo	1543	–19	+0	=1524	47%	3
5/10Wednesday, May 107:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Lopez	1522	+0	+24	=1546	53%	4
5/9Tuesday, May 97:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1541	–4	–2	=1535	52%	6
5/9Tuesday, May 97:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Varland	1524	–29	+23	=1518	48%	1
5/7Sunday, May 71:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1526	+16	+0	=1542	51%	0
5/7Sunday, May 71:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1519	–7	+24	=1536	49%	2
5/6Saturday, May 66:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1527	+19	+0	=1546	53%	3
5/6Saturday, May 66:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Allen	1517	–19	+24	=1522	47%	4
5/5Friday, May 57:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1525	+3	–2	=1526	51%	2
5/5Friday, May 57:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Battenfield	1519	–26	+24	=1517	49%	0
5/4Thursday, May 42:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Lopez	1524	+0	+0	=1524	52%	7
5/4Thursday, May 42:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1480	+5	+24	=1509	48%	3
5/3Wednesday, May 37:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Varland	1525	–25	+0	=1500	46%	4
5/3Wednesday, May 37:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1479	+24	+24	=1527	54%	6
5/2Tuesday, May 27:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1526	+13	+0	=1539	57%	2
5/2Tuesday, May 27:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Kopech	1478	–12	+26	=1492	43%	3
4/30Sunday, April 302:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1437	+20	+0	=1457	34%	4
4/30Sunday, April 302:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1525	+19	+24	=1568	66%	8
4/29Saturday, April 292:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1436	–9	+0	=1427	33%	3
4/29Saturday, April 292:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1526	+3	+24	=1553	67%	2
4/28Friday, April 284:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lyles	1437	+5	+0	=1442	34%	6
4/28Friday, April 284:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Lopez	1526	+4	+24	=1554	66%	8
4/27Thursday, April 277:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1438	+3	–3	=1438	35%	1
4/27Thursday, April 277:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Mahle	1524	–3	+24	=1545	65%	7
4/26Wednesday, April 261:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	German	1555	–13	+0	=1542	50%	12
4/26Wednesday, April 261:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1527	–5	+24	=1546	50%	6
4/25Tuesday, April 257:40 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cortes	1557	+14	+0	=1571	52%	2
4/25Tuesday, April 257:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1525	+10	+24	=1559	48%	6
4/24Monday, April 247:40 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Brito	1559	–41	–3	=1515	43%	1
4/24Monday, April 247:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1523	+14	+24	=1561	57%	6
4/23Sunday, April 232:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1433	–18	+0	=1415	32%	1
4/23Sunday, April 232:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1522	+0	+24	=1546	68%	3
4/22Saturday, April 222:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Kuhl	1429	–7	+0	=1422	31%	10
4/22Saturday, April 222:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Lopez	1526	+8	+24	=1558	69%	4
4/21Friday, April 218:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1428	+11	–1	=1438	36%	3
4/21Friday, April 218:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Mahle	1527	–7	+21	=1541	64%	2
4/20Thursday, April 201:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1529	–2	+0	=1527	47%	5
4/20Thursday, April 201:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1506	+21	+24	=1551	53%	11
4/19Wednesday, April 197:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1527	+11	+0	=1538	51%	10
4/19Wednesday, April 197:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kluber	1508	+0	+24	=1532	49%	4
4/18Tuesday, April 187:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1528	+14	+0	=1542	51%	4
4/18Tuesday, April 187:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Sale	1507	+6	+24	=1537	49%	5
4/16Sunday, April 161:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Lopez	1529	+9	+0	=1538	40%	0
4/16Sunday, April 161:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1561	+22	+24	=1607	60%	2
4/15Saturday, April 151:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Mahle	1531	–4	+0	=1527	44%	1
4/15Saturday, April 151:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	German	1559	–16	+24	=1567	56%	6
4/14Friday, April 147:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Varland	1530	–25	+0	=1505	37%	4
4/14Friday, April 147:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cortes	1560	+15	+24	=1599	63%	3
4/13Thursday, April 137:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1526	+7	–3	=1530	46%	11
4/13Thursday, April 137:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Brito	1564	–29	+22	=1557	54%	2
4/12Wednesday, April 121:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1497	–11	+0	=1486	39%	1
4/12Wednesday, April 121:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1525	+12	+24	=1561	61%	3
4/11Tuesday, April 117:40 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1498	+4	+0	=1502	43%	3
4/11Tuesday, April 117:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Lopez	1524	+5	+24	=1553	57%	4
4/10Monday, April 102:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1496	+38	–3	=1531	47%	4
4/10Monday, April 102:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1525	+2	+24	=1551	53%	3
4/9Sunday, April 92:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Brown	1549	–22	+0	=1527	47%	5
4/9Sunday, April 92:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Mahle	1527	–1	+24	=1550	53%	1
4/8Saturday, April 82:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1551	–3	+0	=1548	49%	6
4/8Saturday, April 82:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1526	+6	+24	=1556	51%	9
4/7Friday, April 74:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1552	–7	–1	=1544	48%	2
4/7Friday, April 74:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1525	+9	+22	=1556	52%	3
4/5Wednesday, April 51:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Lopez	1527	+3	+0	=1530	52%	2
4/5Wednesday, April 51:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1486	+5	+24	=1515	48%	5
4/4Tuesday, April 46:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1528	+3	+0	=1531	47%	0
4/4Tuesday, April 46:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1485	+40	+24	=1549	53%	1
4/3Monday, April 36:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Mahle	1525	+1	–3	=1523	52%	11
4/3Monday, April 36:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cueto	1488	–5	+24	=1507	48%	1
4/2Sunday, April 22:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1523	+8	+0	=1531	61%	7
4/2Sunday, April 22:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1448	–17	+24	=1455	39%	4
4/1Saturday, April 14:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1522	+10	+2	=1534	58%	2
4/1Saturday, April 14:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lyles	1449	+5	+26	=1480	42%	0
3/30Thursday, March 304:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Lopez	1521	+2	–2	=1521	56%	2
3/30Thursday, March 304:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1450	+4	+24	=1478	44%	0

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.