Updated Jun. 5, 2023, at 11:44 PM

2023 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Cubs have a <1% chance of winning the World Series.

NL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Brewers Brewers32-28	0.5	70%	59%
Pirates Pirates32-27	—	32%	20%
Cardinals Cardinals24-36	8.5	18%	9%
Cubs Cubs26-33	6.0	16%	9%
Reds Reds27-33	5.5	5%	3%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
6/6Tuesday, June 69:38 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Wesneski	1485	–18	–1	=1466	40%
6/6Tuesday, June 69:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Anderson	1511	–1	+23	=1533	60%
6/7Wednesday, June 79:38 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	43%
6/7Wednesday, June 79:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1511	+2	+24	=1537	57%
6/8Thursday, June 89:38 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	43%
6/8Thursday, June 89:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1511	+2	+24	=1537	57%
6/9Friday, June 910:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	–2	=1484	44%
6/9Friday, June 910:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+21	=1529	56%
6/10Saturday, June 107:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	43%
6/10Saturday, June 107:35 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+24	=1532	57%
6/11Sunday, June 114:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	43%
6/11Sunday, June 114:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+24	=1532	57%
6/13Tuesday, June 138:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	46%
6/13Tuesday, June 138:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+22	=1508	54%
6/14Wednesday, June 148:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	45%
6/14Wednesday, June 148:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	55%
6/15Thursday, June 158:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	45%
6/15Thursday, June 158:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	55%
6/16Friday, June 162:20 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	–3	=1504	49%
6/16Friday, June 162:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	51%
6/17Saturday, June 172:20 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+0	=1507	50%
6/17Saturday, June 172:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	50%
6/18Sunday, June 181:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+0	=1507	50%
6/18Sunday, June 181:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	50%
6/19Monday, June 197:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	–2	=1484	48%
6/19Monday, June 197:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+22	=1499	52%
6/20Tuesday, June 207:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	48%
6/20Tuesday, June 207:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	52%
6/21Wednesday, June 2112:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	48%
6/21Wednesday, June 2112:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	52%
6/24Saturday, June 241:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+2	=1488	47%
6/24Saturday, June 241:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+2	=1511	53%
6/25Sunday, June 2510 a.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	47%
6/25Sunday, June 2510 a.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	53%
6/27Tuesday, June 278:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	–1	=1516	51%
6/27Tuesday, June 278:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	49%
6/28Wednesday, June 288:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	51%
6/28Wednesday, June 288:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	49%
6/29Thursday, June 298:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	51%
6/29Thursday, June 298:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	49%
6/30Friday, June 302:20 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	–2	=1514	51%
6/30Friday, June 302:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	49%
7/1Saturday, July 17:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	+0	=1516	51%
7/1Saturday, July 17:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	49%
7/2Sunday, July 22:20 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	+0	=1516	51%
7/2Sunday, July 22:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	49%
7/3Monday, July 32:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	–1	=1485	42%
7/3Monday, July 32:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+22	=1538	58%
7/4Tuesday, July 44:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	42%
7/4Tuesday, July 44:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	58%
7/5Wednesday, July 58:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	42%
7/5Wednesday, July 58:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	58%
7/6Thursday, July 62:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	42%
7/6Thursday, July 62:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	58%
7/7Friday, July 77:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	–3	=1483	35%
7/7Friday, July 77:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+24	=1589	65%
7/8Saturday, July 81:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	36%
7/8Saturday, July 81:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+24	=1589	64%
7/9Sunday, July 91:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	36%
7/9Sunday, July 91:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+24	=1589	64%
7/14Friday, July 148:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+4	=1520	51%
7/14Friday, July 148:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+28	=1514	49%
7/15Saturday, July 152:20 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	51%
7/15Saturday, July 152:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	49%
7/16Sunday, July 162:20 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	51%
7/16Sunday, July 162:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	49%
7/17Monday, July 178:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–2	=1440	40%
7/17Monday, July 178:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	60%
7/18Tuesday, July 188:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	40%
7/18Tuesday, July 188:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	60%
7/19Wednesday, July 198:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	40%
7/19Wednesday, July 198:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	60%
7/20Thursday, July 208:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–2	=1507	49%
7/20Thursday, July 208:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	51%
7/21Friday, July 212:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	50%
7/21Friday, July 212:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	50%
7/22Saturday, July 222:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	50%
7/22Saturday, July 222:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	50%
7/23Sunday, July 232:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	50%
7/23Sunday, July 232:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	50%
7/25Tuesday, July 258:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+1	=1487	47%
7/25Tuesday, July 258:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+24	=1508	53%
7/26Wednesday, July 268:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	47%
7/26Wednesday, July 268:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+24	=1508	53%
7/27Thursday, July 277:45 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	–2	=1484	44%
7/27Thursday, July 277:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+21	=1530	56%
7/28Friday, July 288:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	43%
7/28Friday, July 288:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	57%
7/29Saturday, July 297:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	43%
7/29Saturday, July 297:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	57%
7/30Sunday, July 302:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	43%
7/30Sunday, July 302:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	57%
7/31Monday, July 318:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–4	=1455	42%
7/31Monday, July 318:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+22	=1508	58%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 18:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	43%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 18:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	57%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 28:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	43%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 28:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	57%
8/3Thursday, Aug. 38:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	43%
8/3Thursday, Aug. 38:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	57%
8/4Friday, Aug. 42:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	–1	=1559	57%
8/4Friday, Aug. 42:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	43%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 52:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+0	=1560	57%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 52:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	43%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 62:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+0	=1560	57%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 62:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	43%
8/7Monday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	–3	=1483	40%
8/7Monday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+22	=1554	60%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	40%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	60%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	40%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	60%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:07 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	39%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+22	=1566	61%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 123:07 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	38%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 123:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	62%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:37 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	38%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	62%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 158:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+1	=1485	47%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 158:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	53%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 168:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+0	=1484	46%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 168:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	54%
8/18Friday, Aug. 182:20 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	–2	=1431	38%
8/18Friday, Aug. 182:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+26	=1512	62%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 192:20 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+0	=1433	39%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 192:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	61%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 202:20 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+0	=1433	39%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 202:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	61%
8/21Monday, Aug. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	–2	=1484	52%
8/21Monday, Aug. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+23	=1472	48%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	52%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+24	=1473	48%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	52%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+24	=1473	48%
8/24Thursday, Aug. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	–2	=1484	48%
8/24Thursday, Aug. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	52%
8/25Friday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	48%
8/25Friday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	52%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 267:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	48%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 267:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	52%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 271:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	48%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 271:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	52%
8/28Monday, Aug. 288:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	–1	=1515	51%
8/28Monday, Aug. 288:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+22	=1508	49%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 298:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	51%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 298:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	49%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 302:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	51%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 302:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	49%
9/1Friday, Sept. 11:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	51%
9/1Friday, Sept. 11:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+22	=1481	49%
9/1Friday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	50%
9/1Friday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	50%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	50%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	50%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 312:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	50%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 312:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	50%
9/4Monday, Sept. 42:20 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	–4	=1504	49%
9/4Monday, Sept. 42:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+22	=1508	51%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 57:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+0	=1508	50%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 57:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	50%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 62:20 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+0	=1508	50%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 62:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	50%
9/7Thursday, Sept. 77:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	–4	=1497	48%
9/7Thursday, Sept. 77:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	52%
9/8Friday, Sept. 82:20 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+0	=1501	49%
9/8Friday, Sept. 82:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	51%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 92:20 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+0	=1501	49%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 92:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	51%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 102:20 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+0	=1501	49%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 102:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	51%
9/11Monday, Sept. 118:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	–3	=1483	52%
9/11Monday, Sept. 118:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+21	=1468	48%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 128:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	52%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 128:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+24	=1471	48%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 133:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	52%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 133:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+24	=1471	48%
9/15Friday, Sept. 159:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	–1	=1485	45%
9/15Friday, Sept. 159:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+20	=1521	55%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	44%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+24	=1525	56%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 174:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	44%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 174:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+24	=1525	56%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 197:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	45%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 197:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+22	=1508	55%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 207:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	45%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 207:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	55%
9/21Thursday, Sept. 217:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	45%
9/21Thursday, Sept. 217:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	55%
9/22Friday, Sept. 222:20 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	–2	=1445	41%
9/22Friday, Sept. 222:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	59%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 232:20 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+0	=1447	41%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 232:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	59%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 242:20 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+0	=1447	41%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 242:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	59%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 267:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	–1	=1485	36%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 267:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+23	=1583	64%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 277:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	36%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 277:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	64%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 287:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	36%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 287:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	64%
9/29Friday, Sept. 298:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	–3	=1483	42%
9/29Friday, Sept. 298:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	58%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	42%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	58%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	42%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	58%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
6/5Monday, June 59:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1486	–17	+0	=1469	37%	0
6/5Monday, June 59:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1535	+6	+24	=1565	63%	5
6/4Sunday, June 45:30 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1484	+26	+0	=1510	49%	7
6/4Sunday, June 45:30 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Weathers	1538	–47	+24	=1515	51%	1
6/3Saturday, June 310:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1486	+4	+0	=1490	38%	0
6/3Saturday, June 310:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1536	+16	+24	=1576	62%	6
6/2Friday, June 29:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Taillon	1484	–13	–2	=1469	36%	2
6/2Friday, June 29:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1538	+12	+20	=1570	64%	1
5/31Wednesday, May 312:20 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Eflin	1561	–8	+0	=1553	55%	4
5/31Wednesday, May 312:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1485	+10	+24	=1519	45%	3
5/30Tuesday, May 308:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1562	+19	+0	=1581	63%	1
5/30Tuesday, May 308:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1484	–17	+24	=1491	37%	2
5/29Monday, May 292:20 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Bradley	1564	–26	–3	=1535	51%	0
5/29Monday, May 292:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1482	+20	+24	=1526	49%	1
5/28Sunday, May 282:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1456	–11	+0	=1445	39%	8
5/28Sunday, May 282:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1485	+11	+24	=1520	61%	5
5/27Saturday, May 277:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Williamson	1454	–1	+0	=1453	43%	8
5/27Saturday, May 277:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Taillon	1487	–11	+24	=1500	57%	5
5/26Friday, May 262:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1450	+21	–2	=1469	41%	9
5/26Friday, May 262:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1490	+17	+24	=1531	59%	0
5/25Thursday, May 257:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Carrasco	1529	–17	+0	=1512	52%	10
5/25Thursday, May 257:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1494	–16	+24	=1502	48%	1
5/24Wednesday, May 247:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1530	–7	+0	=1523	49%	2
5/24Wednesday, May 247:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1492	+15	+24	=1531	51%	4
5/23Tuesday, May 237:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1532	–11	–1	=1520	50%	2
5/23Tuesday, May 237:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1490	+10	+23	=1523	50%	7
5/21Sunday, May 211:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1491	+14	+0	=1505	48%	1
5/21Sunday, May 211:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1517	–20	+24	=1521	52%	2
5/20Saturday, May 204:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Taillon	1493	–3	+0	=1490	40%	3
5/20Saturday, May 204:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1515	+18	+24	=1557	60%	12
5/19Friday, May 197:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1490	+12	–1	=1501	44%	10
5/19Friday, May 197:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Suarez	1519	+0	+22	=1541	56%	1
5/17Wednesday, May 178:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1491	+7	+0	=1498	42%	6
5/17Wednesday, May 178:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	France	1555	–25	+24	=1554	58%	7
5/16Tuesday, May 168:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1492	+13	+0	=1505	36%	3
5/16Tuesday, May 168:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1554	+29	+24	=1607	64%	7
5/15Monday, May 158:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Taillon	1493	+1	–3	=1491	35%	4
5/15Monday, May 158:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1553	+26	+21	=1600	65%	6
5/14Sunday, May 142:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1496	+19	+0	=1515	49%	3
5/14Sunday, May 142:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Varland	1525	–25	+24	=1524	51%	16
5/13Saturday, May 132:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Wesneski	1499	–9	+0	=1490	40%	1
5/13Saturday, May 132:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1522	+13	+24	=1559	60%	11
5/12Friday, May 128:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1497	+2	+0	=1499	41%	6
5/12Friday, May 128:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1525	+16	+24	=1565	59%	2
5/10Wednesday, May 107:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Montgomery	1506	+26	+0	=1532	50%	4
5/10Wednesday, May 107:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1494	+12	+24	=1530	50%	10
5/9Tuesday, May 97:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1504	+1	+0	=1505	48%	6
5/9Tuesday, May 97:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Taillon	1496	+2	+24	=1522	52%	4
5/8Monday, May 87:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1503	+11	–2	=1512	46%	3
5/8Monday, May 87:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1497	+15	+24	=1536	54%	1
5/7Sunday, May 72:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1483	+31	+0	=1514	51%	5
5/7Sunday, May 72:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Wesneski	1498	–12	+24	=1510	49%	4
5/6Saturday, May 62:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Barnes	1484	–23	+0	=1461	41%	2
5/6Saturday, May 62:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1497	+4	+24	=1525	59%	4
5/5Friday, May 52:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1485	–4	–3	=1478	43%	1
5/5Friday, May 52:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1496	+9	+21	=1526	57%	4
5/4Thursday, May 41:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Taillon	1497	+5	+0	=1502	59%	3
5/4Thursday, May 41:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1435	–19	+24	=1440	41%	4
5/3Wednesday, May 37:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1498	+15	+0	=1513	58%	1
5/3Wednesday, May 37:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Irvin	1434	+2	+24	=1460	42%	2
5/2Tuesday, May 27:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Wesneski	1500	–17	+0	=1483	53%	1
5/2Tuesday, May 27:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1432	+9	+24	=1465	47%	4
5/1Monday, May 17:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1498	+4	–3	=1499	54%	5
5/1Monday, May 17:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1434	+16	+24	=1474	46%	1
4/30Sunday, April 3012:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1500	+11	+0	=1511	55%	3
4/30Sunday, April 3012:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hoeing	1491	–41	+24	=1474	45%	4
4/29Saturday, April 294:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Kilian	1500	–41	+0	=1459	43%	6
4/29Saturday, April 294:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1490	–8	+24	=1506	57%	7
4/28Friday, April 286:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1501	+15	–3	=1513	50%	2
4/28Friday, April 286:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1489	+4	+21	=1514	50%	3
4/27Thursday, April 272:20 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lugo	1539	–17	+0	=1522	53%	2
4/27Thursday, April 272:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Wesneski	1500	–22	+24	=1502	47%	5
4/26Wednesday, April 267:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1538	–9	+0	=1529	50%	5
4/26Wednesday, April 267:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1501	+1	+24	=1526	50%	3
4/25Tuesday, April 257:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1541	+4	–2	=1543	52%	0
4/25Tuesday, April 257:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1498	+8	+26	=1532	48%	6
4/23Sunday, April 232:20 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1555	+24	+0	=1579	55%	7
4/23Sunday, April 232:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1500	+20	+24	=1544	45%	3
4/22Saturday, April 222:20 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1553	–10	+0	=1543	55%	9
4/22Saturday, April 222:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Wesneski	1502	–21	+24	=1505	45%	4
4/21Friday, April 212:20 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1558	+19	+0	=1577	59%	0
4/21Friday, April 212:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1497	–7	+24	=1514	41%	13
4/20Thursday, April 207:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Grove	1556	–44	–4	=1508	51%	6
4/20Thursday, April 207:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Assad	1499	–18	+20	=1501	49%	2
4/19Wednesday, April 193:37 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1496	+7	+0	=1503	58%	12
4/19Wednesday, April 193:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Miller	1419	+6	+24	=1449	42%	2
4/18Tuesday, April 189:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1495	+20	+0	=1515	60%	4
4/18Tuesday, April 189:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Waldichuk	1421	–4	+24	=1441	40%	0
4/17Monday, April 179:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Wesneski	1492	–26	–2	=1464	51%	10
4/17Monday, April 179:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Muller	1424	+6	+24	=1454	49%	1
4/16Sunday, April 164:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1490	–7	+0	=1483	33%	3
4/16Sunday, April 164:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1559	+23	+24	=1606	67%	2
4/15Saturday, April 159:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Taillon	1491	+5	+0	=1496	45%	1
4/15Saturday, April 159:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Grove	1558	–50	+24	=1532	55%	2
4/14Friday, April 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1488	+8	–2	=1494	39%	8
4/14Friday, April 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Syndergaard	1561	–15	+24	=1570	61%	2
4/12Wednesday, April 122:20 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gilbert	1510	+8	+0	=1518	48%	5
4/12Wednesday, April 122:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1490	+21	+24	=1535	52%	2
4/11Tuesday, April 117:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1513	–16	+0	=1497	49%	9
4/11Tuesday, April 117:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Wesneski	1488	–11	+24	=1501	51%	14
4/10Monday, April 107:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Castillo	1514	+34	–2	=1546	57%	2
4/10Monday, April 107:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1486	–11	+24	=1499	43%	3
4/9Sunday, April 92:20 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gray	1498	–4	+0	=1494	46%	8
4/9Sunday, April 92:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Taillon	1489	+6	+24	=1519	54%	2
4/8Saturday, April 84:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Perez	1500	+5	+0	=1505	48%	3
4/8Saturday, April 84:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1486	+6	+24	=1516	52%	10
4/7Friday, April 72:20 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Eovaldi	1502	–5	–1	=1496	45%	0
4/7Friday, April 72:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1485	+18	+27	=1530	55%	2
4/4Tuesday, April 46:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Wesneski	1483	–5	+0	=1478	51%	12
4/4Tuesday, April 46:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Cessa	1458	–9	+24	=1473	49%	5
4/3Monday, April 36:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1484	–6	–2	=1476	49%	6
4/3Monday, April 36:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Overton	1457	+4	+24	=1485	51%	7
4/2Sunday, April 22:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1526	–10	+0	=1516	50%	9
4/2Sunday, April 22:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Taillon	1486	+8	+24	=1518	50%	5
4/1Saturday, April 12:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1525	+26	+2	=1553	56%	3
4/1Saturday, April 12:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1487	+1	+26	=1514	44%	1
3/30Thursday, March 302:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1527	+26	–1	=1552	54%	0
3/30Thursday, March 302:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1485	+14	+24	=1523	46%	4

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.