Updated Jun. 5, 2023, at 11:44 PM

2023 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Red Sox have a <1% chance of winning the World Series.

AL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Rays Rays43-19	—	96%	63%
Yankees Yankees36-25	6.5	85%	25%
Blue Jays Blue Jays33-28	9.5	56%	7%
Orioles Orioles37-22	4.5	42%	4%
Red Sox Red Sox30-29	11.5	18%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/14Sunday, May 147 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1506	+22	+0	=1528	50%
5/14Sunday, May 147 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kluber	1514	–10	+24	=1528	50%
6/6Tuesday, June 67:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Paxton	1514	+11	–3	=1522	45%
6/6Tuesday, June 67:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1513	+18	+23	=1554	55%
6/7Wednesday, June 77:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	47%
6/7Wednesday, June 77:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	+24	=1540	53%
6/8Thursday, June 87:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	47%
6/8Thursday, June 87:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	+24	=1540	53%
6/9Friday, June 97:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	–2	=1514	39%
6/9Friday, June 97:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+24	=1589	61%
6/10Saturday, June 107:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	40%
6/10Saturday, June 107:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+24	=1589	60%
6/11Sunday, June 117 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	40%
6/11Sunday, June 117 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+24	=1589	60%
6/12Monday, June 127:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	–4	=1443	37%
6/12Monday, June 127:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+22	=1538	63%
6/13Tuesday, June 137:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+0	=1447	37%
6/13Tuesday, June 137:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	63%
6/14Wednesday, June 147:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+0	=1447	37%
6/14Wednesday, June 147:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	63%
6/16Friday, June 167:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+0	=1565	53%
6/16Friday, June 167:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+26	=1542	47%
6/17Saturday, June 177:15 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+0	=1565	54%
6/17Saturday, June 177:15 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	46%
6/18Sunday, June 187 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+0	=1565	54%
6/18Sunday, June 187 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	46%
6/19Monday, June 197:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	–3	=1513	44%
6/19Monday, June 197:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	56%
6/20Tuesday, June 207:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	45%
6/20Tuesday, June 207:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	55%
6/21Wednesday, June 217:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	45%
6/21Wednesday, June 217:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	55%
6/22Thursday, June 221:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	45%
6/22Thursday, June 221:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	55%
6/23Friday, June 238:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	–2	=1514	50%
6/23Friday, June 238:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+26	=1510	50%
6/24Saturday, June 244:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	51%
6/24Saturday, June 244:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+24	=1508	49%
6/25Sunday, June 252:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	51%
6/25Sunday, June 252:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+24	=1508	49%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–1	=1492	43%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+23	=1539	57%
6/28Wednesday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	43%
6/28Wednesday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	57%
6/29Thursday, June 296:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	43%
6/29Thursday, June 296:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	57%
6/30Friday, June 307:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	–2	=1514	42%
6/30Friday, June 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	58%
7/1Saturday, July 13:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	43%
7/1Saturday, July 13:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	57%
7/2Sunday, July 21:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	43%
7/2Sunday, July 21:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	57%
7/4Tuesday, July 41:35 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	–4	=1533	49%
7/4Tuesday, July 41:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	51%
7/5Wednesday, July 57:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+0	=1537	49%
7/5Wednesday, July 57:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	51%
7/6Thursday, July 67:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+0	=1537	49%
7/6Thursday, July 67:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	51%
7/7Friday, July 77:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	–3	=1395	30%
7/7Friday, July 77:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	70%
7/8Saturday, July 84:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	+0	=1398	31%
7/8Saturday, July 84:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	69%
7/9Sunday, July 91:35 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	+0	=1398	31%
7/9Sunday, July 91:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	69%
7/14Friday, July 148:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+4	=1520	51%
7/14Friday, July 148:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+28	=1514	49%
7/15Saturday, July 152:20 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	51%
7/15Saturday, July 152:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	49%
7/16Sunday, July 162:20 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	51%
7/16Sunday, July 162:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	49%
7/17Monday, July 179:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	–4	=1512	63%
7/17Monday, July 179:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	+24	=1422	37%
7/18Tuesday, July 189:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	63%
7/18Tuesday, July 189:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	+24	=1422	37%
7/19Wednesday, July 193:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	63%
7/19Wednesday, July 193:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	+24	=1422	37%
7/21Friday, July 217:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–2	=1530	49%
7/21Friday, July 217:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+22	=1538	51%
7/22Saturday, July 224:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	49%
7/22Saturday, July 224:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	51%
7/23Sunday, July 23	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	49%
7/23Sunday, July 23	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	51%
7/25Tuesday, July 257:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	–1	=1559	52%
7/25Tuesday, July 257:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+29	=1545	48%
7/26Wednesday, July 267:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+0	=1560	53%
7/26Wednesday, July 267:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	47%
7/28Friday, July 2810:15 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	–2	=1514	47%
7/28Friday, July 2810:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+26	=1534	53%
7/29Saturday, July 297:15 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	48%
7/29Saturday, July 297:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+24	=1532	52%
7/30Sunday, July 304:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	48%
7/30Sunday, July 304:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+24	=1532	52%
7/31Monday, July 319:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	–3	=1513	47%
7/31Monday, July 319:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+21	=1532	53%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 19:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	47%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 19:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+24	=1535	53%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	47%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+24	=1535	53%
8/4Friday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	–2	=1542	51%
8/4Friday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+22	=1538	49%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 54:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+0	=1544	51%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 54:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	49%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+0	=1544	51%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	49%
8/7Monday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	–2	=1431	35%
8/7Monday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	65%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+0	=1433	35%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	65%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+0	=1433	35%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	65%
8/10Thursday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+0	=1433	35%
8/10Thursday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	65%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	–3	=1446	37%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	63%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 124:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+0	=1449	37%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 124:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	63%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 1312:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+0	=1449	37%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 1312:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	63%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 157:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	57%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 157:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+26	=1468	43%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 167:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	57%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 167:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	43%
8/17Thursday, Aug. 174:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	57%
8/17Thursday, Aug. 174:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	43%
8/18Friday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	–2	=1514	39%
8/18Friday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+23	=1588	61%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 191:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	40%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 191:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+24	=1589	60%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 201:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	40%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 201:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+24	=1589	60%
8/21Monday, Aug. 218:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	–3	=1513	40%
8/21Monday, Aug. 218:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+24	=1587	60%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 228:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	40%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 228:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+24	=1587	60%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 238:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	40%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 238:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+24	=1587	60%
8/24Thursday, Aug. 242:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	40%
8/24Thursday, Aug. 242:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+24	=1587	60%
8/25Friday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	–3	=1558	53%
8/25Friday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+20	=1536	47%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 264:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+0	=1561	53%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 264:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	47%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 27	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+0	=1561	53%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 27	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	47%
8/28Monday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	–3	=1560	52%
8/28Monday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+26	=1542	48%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+0	=1563	53%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	47%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 304:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+0	=1563	53%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 304:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	47%
9/1Friday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	–1	=1515	58%
9/1Friday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+26	=1459	42%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	59%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+24	=1457	41%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 32:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	59%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 32:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+24	=1457	41%
9/4Monday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	–3	=1513	40%
9/4Monday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	+21	=1583	60%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 56:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	40%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 56:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	+24	=1586	60%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 66:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	40%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 66:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	+24	=1586	60%
9/8Friday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	–2	=1505	45%
9/8Friday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+23	=1539	55%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 94:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+0	=1507	45%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 94:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	55%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 101:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+0	=1507	45%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 101:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	55%
9/11Monday, Sept. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	–2	=1563	53%
9/11Monday, Sept. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	47%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+0	=1565	54%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	46%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+0	=1565	54%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	46%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 147:15 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+0	=1565	54%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 147:15 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	46%
9/15Friday, Sept. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	–2	=1514	42%
9/15Friday, Sept. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	58%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 163:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	43%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 163:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	57%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 171:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	43%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 171:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	57%
9/18Monday, Sept. 188:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	–3	=1513	44%
9/18Monday, Sept. 188:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+21	=1558	56%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 198:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	44%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 198:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+24	=1561	56%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 202:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	44%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 202:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+24	=1561	56%
9/22Friday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+0	=1484	42%
9/22Friday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+22	=1538	58%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 234:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+0	=1484	42%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 234:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	58%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 241:35 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+0	=1484	42%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 241:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	58%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	–1	=1561	53%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+26	=1542	47%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 276:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	+0	=1562	53%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 276:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	47%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 286:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	–2	=1514	48%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 286:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	52%
9/29Friday, Sept. 297:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	48%
9/29Friday, Sept. 297:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	52%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	48%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	52%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+0	=1516	48%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	52%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
6/5Monday, June 54:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1563	+16	+0	=1579	57%	4
6/5Monday, June 54:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Bello	1515	–6	+24	=1533	43%	1
6/4Sunday, June 41:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Bradley	1561	–19	+0	=1542	48%	6
6/4Sunday, June 41:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1517	+13	+24	=1554	52%	2
6/3Saturday, June 36:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1560	+17	+0	=1577	58%	4
6/3Saturday, June 36:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Crawford	1518	–24	+24	=1518	42%	2
6/3Saturday, June 31:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Kelley (open)	1562	–3	+2	=1561	54%	5
6/3Saturday, June 31:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Whitlock	1517	–7	+26	=1536	46%	8
6/1Thursday, June 17:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1461	+25	+0	=1486	40%	2
6/1Thursday, June 17:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Sale	1515	+21	+24	=1560	60%	8
5/31Wednesday, May 317:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Weaver	1459	–2	+0	=1457	37%	5
5/31Wednesday, May 317:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Paxton	1516	+10	+24	=1550	63%	4
5/30Tuesday, May 307:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lively	1458	–5	–1	=1452	38%	9
5/30Tuesday, May 307:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Bello	1518	–5	+22	=1535	62%	8
5/28Sunday, May 284:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1519	+17	+0	=1536	49%	2
5/28Sunday, May 284:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Kelly	1494	+24	+24	=1542	51%	4
5/27Saturday, May 277:15 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Whitlock	1518	–11	+0	=1507	50%	2
5/27Saturday, May 277:15 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Davies	1495	–15	+24	=1504	50%	1
5/26Friday, May 269:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Sale	1516	+21	+0	=1537	57%	7
5/26Friday, May 269:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Pfaadt	1497	–31	+22	=1488	43%	2
5/24Wednesday, May 249:38 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Paxton	1518	+15	+0	=1533	49%	3
5/24Wednesday, May 249:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Anderson	1517	–2	+24	=1539	51%	7
5/23Tuesday, May 239:38 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Bello	1520	–8	+0	=1512	49%	0
5/23Tuesday, May 239:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Canning	1515	–23	+24	=1516	51%	4
5/22Monday, May 229:38 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1521	+15	–1	=1535	52%	1
5/22Monday, May 229:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Barria	1513	–16	+24	=1521	48%	2
5/21Sunday, May 214:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kluber	1523	–4	+0	=1519	44%	0
5/21Sunday, May 214:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1530	+7	+24	=1561	56%	7
5/20Saturday, May 2010:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Sale	1522	+19	+0	=1541	47%	4
5/20Saturday, May 2010:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1532	+6	+24	=1562	53%	2
5/19Friday, May 199:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Paxton	1519	+16	–2	=1533	45%	6
5/19Friday, May 199:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1534	+6	+26	=1566	55%	1
5/17Wednesday, May 177:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1520	–26	+0	=1494	45%	3
5/17Wednesday, May 177:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Bello	1517	–10	+24	=1531	55%	12
5/16Tuesday, May 167:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Castillo	1522	+24	+0	=1546	52%	4
5/16Tuesday, May 167:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1514	–9	+24	=1529	48%	9
5/15Monday, May 157:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kirby	1518	+10	–3	=1525	45%	10
5/15Monday, May 157:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1518	+16	+24	=1558	55%	1
5/13Saturday, May 134:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1505	–2	+0	=1503	42%	4
5/13Saturday, May 134:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Sale	1519	+14	+24	=1557	58%	3
5/12Friday, May 127:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1503	+15	–1	=1517	44%	8
5/12Friday, May 127:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Paxton	1521	+16	+23	=1560	56%	6
5/10Wednesday, May 107:20 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Bello	1519	–11	+0	=1508	42%	5
5/10Wednesday, May 107:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Lee	1570	–34	+24	=1560	58%	2
5/9Tuesday, May 97:20 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1520	–1	–1	=1518	40%	3
5/9Tuesday, May 97:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1568	–5	+26	=1589	60%	9
5/7Sunday, May 71:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1523	+16	+0	=1539	53%	1
5/7Sunday, May 71:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1517	–20	+24	=1521	47%	6
5/6Saturday, May 67:15 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kluber	1521	–1	+0	=1520	50%	7
5/6Saturday, May 67:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Falter	1519	–22	+24	=1521	50%	4
5/5Friday, May 57:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Sale	1519	+12	–2	=1529	44%	5
5/5Friday, May 57:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1520	+32	+22	=1574	56%	3
5/4Thursday, May 46:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1543	+25	+0	=1568	56%	5
5/4Thursday, May 46:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Bello	1517	–12	+24	=1529	44%	11
5/3Wednesday, May 37:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1545	+19	+0	=1564	54%	3
5/3Wednesday, May 37:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1514	–2	+24	=1536	46%	8
5/2Tuesday, May 27:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1546	–26	+0	=1520	45%	6
5/2Tuesday, May 27:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1513	+19	+24	=1556	55%	7
5/1Monday, May 17:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1547	–10	–2	=1535	50%	5
5/1Monday, May 17:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kluber	1512	–1	+24	=1535	50%	6
4/30Sunday, April 301:35 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Allen	1522	–22	+0	=1500	44%	1
4/30Sunday, April 301:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Sale	1510	+8	+24	=1542	56%	7
4/29Saturday, April 294:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1522	–27	+0	=1495	47%	7
4/29Saturday, April 294:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Bello	1509	–14	+24	=1519	53%	8
4/28Friday, April 287:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1521	+32	–1	=1552	52%	5
4/28Friday, April 287:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1511	+0	+24	=1535	48%	2
4/26Wednesday, April 261:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1513	+23	+0	=1536	50%	2
4/26Wednesday, April 261:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1494	+14	+24	=1532	50%	6
4/25Tuesday, April 256:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kluber	1511	–2	+0	=1509	47%	8
4/25Tuesday, April 256:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1496	+13	+24	=1533	53%	6
4/24Monday, April 246:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Sale	1512	+12	–3	=1521	50%	4
4/24Monday, April 246:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1495	+3	+24	=1522	50%	5
4/23Sunday, April 232:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Bello	1509	–14	+0	=1495	37%	12
4/23Sunday, April 232:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1543	+20	+24	=1587	63%	5
4/22Saturday, April 227:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Whitlock	1510	–2	+0	=1508	45%	4
4/22Saturday, April 227:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Miley	1542	–20	+24	=1546	55%	5
4/21Friday, April 218:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1508	–2	–3	=1503	40%	5
4/21Friday, April 218:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1544	+10	+22	=1576	60%	3
4/20Thursday, April 201:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1529	–2	+0	=1527	47%	5
4/20Thursday, April 201:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1506	+21	+24	=1551	53%	11
4/19Wednesday, April 197:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1527	+11	+0	=1538	51%	10
4/19Wednesday, April 197:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kluber	1508	+0	+24	=1532	49%	4
4/18Tuesday, April 187:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1528	+14	+0	=1542	51%	4
4/18Tuesday, April 187:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Sale	1507	+6	+24	=1537	49%	5
4/17Monday, April 1711:10 a.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Ohtani	1515	+45	+0	=1560	55%	5
4/17Monday, April 1711:10 a.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Bello	1508	–8	+24	=1524	45%	4
4/16Sunday, April 161:35 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Detmers	1516	–7	+0	=1509	48%	1
4/16Sunday, April 161:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Whitlock	1507	–11	+24	=1520	52%	2
4/15Saturday, April 154:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Anderson	1517	+6	+0	=1523	49%	7
4/15Saturday, April 154:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1506	+2	+24	=1532	51%	9
4/14Friday, April 147:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1518	+3	–2	=1519	46%	3
4/14Friday, April 147:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1505	+21	+21	=1547	54%	5
4/13Thursday, April 131:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kluber	1506	+1	+0	=1507	40%	3
4/13Thursday, April 131:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Springs	1546	+10	+24	=1580	60%	9
4/12Wednesday, April 126:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Sale	1508	+9	+0	=1517	48%	7
4/12Wednesday, April 126:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Bradley	1545	–39	+24	=1530	52%	9
4/11Tuesday, April 116:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Whitlock	1509	–7	+0	=1502	39%	2
4/11Tuesday, April 116:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1543	+11	+24	=1578	61%	7
4/10Monday, April 106:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1510	–3	–3	=1504	41%	0
4/10Monday, April 106:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Beeks (open)	1543	–1	+24	=1566	59%	1
4/9Sunday, April 91:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Crawford	1509	–28	+0	=1481	52%	4
4/9Sunday, April 91:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1446	–5	+24	=1465	48%	1
4/8Saturday, April 84:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1506	+20	+2	=1528	57%	14
4/8Saturday, April 84:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Wentz	1448	+2	+26	=1476	43%	5
4/6Thursday, April 61:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Sale	1505	+11	–3	=1513	55%	6
4/6Thursday, April 61:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Turnbull	1450	+9	+21	=1480	45%	3
4/5Wednesday, April 51:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1460	+8	+0	=1468	41%	4
4/5Wednesday, April 51:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kluber	1507	–1	+24	=1530	59%	1
4/4Tuesday, April 47:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Contreras	1458	+10	+0	=1468	41%	4
4/4Tuesday, April 47:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1509	–1	+24	=1532	59%	1
4/3Monday, April 37:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1457	–4	–3	=1450	41%	7
4/3Monday, April 37:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Crawford	1510	–20	+24	=1514	59%	6
4/2Sunday, April 21:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Irvin	1485	+2	+0	=1487	41%	5
4/2Sunday, April 21:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1508	+20	+24	=1552	59%	9
4/1Saturday, April 14:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1486	+9	+2	=1497	42%	8
4/1Saturday, April 14:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Sale	1508	+17	+26	=1551	58%	9
3/30Thursday, March 302:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Gibson	1485	–10	–2	=1473	41%	10
3/30Thursday, March 302:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kluber	1509	+1	+24	=1534	59%	9

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.