Updated Jun. 5, 2023, at 11:44 PM

2023 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Marlins have a <1% chance of winning the World Series.

NL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Braves Braves35-24	—	95%	79%
Mets Mets29-30	6.0	53%	11%
Phillies Phillies28-32	7.5	36%	6%
Marlins Marlins33-28	3.0	35%	4%
Nationals Nationals25-33	9.5	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
6/6Tuesday, June 66:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1433	+14	+0	=1447	40%
6/6Tuesday, June 66:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1493	+1	+24	=1518	60%
6/7Wednesday, June 76:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+0	=1433	38%
6/7Wednesday, June 76:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	62%
6/9Friday, June 98:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–1	=1492	48%
6/9Friday, June 98:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+21	=1505	52%
6/10Saturday, June 102:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	48%
6/10Saturday, June 102:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+24	=1508	52%
6/11Sunday, June 112:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	48%
6/11Sunday, June 112:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+24	=1508	52%
6/12Monday, June 129:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–4	=1489	44%
6/12Monday, June 129:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+21	=1532	56%
6/13Tuesday, June 139:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	44%
6/13Tuesday, June 139:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+24	=1535	56%
6/14Wednesday, June 149:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	44%
6/14Wednesday, June 149:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+24	=1535	56%
6/16Friday, June 167:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–2	=1491	54%
6/16Friday, June 167:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+21	=1463	46%
6/17Saturday, June 174:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	54%
6/17Saturday, June 174:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	46%
6/18Sunday, June 181:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	54%
6/18Sunday, June 181:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	46%
6/19Monday, June 196:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	–3	=1541	54%
6/19Monday, June 196:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+21	=1514	46%
6/20Tuesday, June 206:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+0	=1544	54%
6/20Tuesday, June 206:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	46%
6/21Wednesday, June 2112:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+0	=1544	54%
6/21Wednesday, June 2112:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	46%
6/22Thursday, June 226:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	–3	=1474	44%
6/22Thursday, June 226:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	56%
6/23Friday, June 236:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	44%
6/23Friday, June 236:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	56%
6/24Saturday, June 244:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	44%
6/24Saturday, June 244:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	56%
6/25Sunday, June 251:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	44%
6/25Sunday, June 251:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	56%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–1	=1492	43%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+23	=1539	57%
6/28Wednesday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	43%
6/28Wednesday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	57%
6/29Thursday, June 296:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	43%
6/29Thursday, June 296:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	57%
6/30Friday, June 307:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–3	=1490	36%
6/30Friday, June 307:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+26	=1586	64%
7/1Saturday, July 14:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	37%
7/1Saturday, July 14:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	63%
7/2Sunday, July 21:30 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	37%
7/2Sunday, July 21:30 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	63%
7/3Monday, July 36:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–3	=1506	49%
7/3Monday, July 36:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+21	=1514	51%
7/4Tuesday, July 41:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	49%
7/4Tuesday, July 41:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	51%
7/5Wednesday, July 56:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	49%
7/5Wednesday, July 56:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	51%
7/6Thursday, July 66:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	49%
7/6Thursday, July 66:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	51%
7/7Friday, July 76:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	–2	=1515	50%
7/7Friday, July 76:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	50%
7/8Saturday, July 84:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	50%
7/8Saturday, July 84:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	50%
7/9Sunday, July 91:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	50%
7/9Sunday, July 91:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	50%
7/14Friday, July 147:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+4	=1497	45%
7/14Friday, July 147:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+28	=1535	55%
7/15Saturday, July 157:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	45%
7/15Saturday, July 157:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	55%
7/16Sunday, July 161:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	45%
7/16Sunday, July 161:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	55%
7/17Monday, July 177:45 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–3	=1490	44%
7/17Monday, July 177:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	56%
7/18Tuesday, July 187:45 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	44%
7/18Tuesday, July 187:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	56%
7/19Wednesday, July 192:15 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	44%
7/19Wednesday, July 192:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	56%
7/21Friday, July 216:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	–2	=1445	40%
7/21Friday, July 216:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+23	=1516	60%
7/22Saturday, July 221:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+0	=1447	40%
7/22Saturday, July 221:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	60%
7/23Sunday, July 231:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+0	=1447	40%
7/23Sunday, July 231:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	60%
7/25Tuesday, July 256:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	37%
7/25Tuesday, July 256:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	+26	=1588	63%
7/26Wednesday, July 2612:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	37%
7/26Wednesday, July 2612:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	+24	=1586	63%
7/28Friday, July 286:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	–3	=1446	40%
7/28Friday, July 286:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	60%
7/29Saturday, July 294:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+0	=1449	40%
7/29Saturday, July 294:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	60%
7/30Sunday, July 301:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+0	=1449	40%
7/30Sunday, July 301:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	60%
7/31Monday, July 316:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	–3	=1514	50%
7/31Monday, July 316:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	50%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	50%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	50%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	50%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	50%
8/3Thursday, Aug. 312:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	50%
8/3Thursday, Aug. 312:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	50%
8/4Friday, Aug. 48:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–3	=1490	40%
8/4Friday, Aug. 48:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+24	=1561	60%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 54:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	40%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 54:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+24	=1561	60%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 62:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	40%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 62:35 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+24	=1561	60%
8/7Monday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–3	=1490	51%
8/7Monday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	49%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 86:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	51%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 86:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	49%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 912:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	51%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 912:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	49%
8/11Friday, Aug. 116:40 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	–1	=1564	57%
8/11Friday, Aug. 116:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+23	=1516	43%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 124:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+0	=1565	57%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 124:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	43%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:40 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+0	=1565	57%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	43%
8/14Monday, Aug. 146:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	–3	=1560	56%
8/14Monday, Aug. 146:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	44%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+0	=1563	57%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	43%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+0	=1563	57%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	43%
8/18Friday, Aug. 1810:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–2	=1491	37%
8/18Friday, Aug. 1810:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+24	=1585	63%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 199:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	37%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 199:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+24	=1585	63%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 204:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	37%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 204:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+24	=1585	63%
8/21Monday, Aug. 219:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–1	=1492	40%
8/21Monday, Aug. 219:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+24	=1561	60%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 229:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	40%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 229:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+24	=1561	60%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	40%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+24	=1561	60%
8/25Friday, Aug. 256:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–3	=1439	39%
8/25Friday, Aug. 256:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+22	=1515	61%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 264:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	39%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 264:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	61%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 271:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	39%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 271:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	61%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 296:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	+0	=1562	56%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 296:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+26	=1519	44%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 306:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1565	–3	+0	=1562	56%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 306:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	44%
8/31Thursday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–3	=1490	54%
8/31Thursday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+22	=1464	46%
9/1Friday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	54%
9/1Friday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	46%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 24:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	54%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 24:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	46%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 31:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	54%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 31:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	46%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 56:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	–2	=1559	56%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 56:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+23	=1516	44%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 66:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+0	=1561	56%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 66:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	44%
9/7Thursday, Sept. 76:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+0	=1561	56%
9/7Thursday, Sept. 76:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	44%
9/8Friday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–3	=1490	43%
9/8Friday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+22	=1539	57%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 96:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	43%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 96:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	57%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 101:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	43%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 101:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	57%
9/11Monday, Sept. 117:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–3	=1490	43%
9/11Monday, Sept. 117:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+21	=1537	57%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 127:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	43%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 127:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	57%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 137:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	43%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 137:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	57%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 142:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	43%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 142:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	57%
9/15Friday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	–3	=1557	56%
9/15Friday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+21	=1514	44%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 164:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+0	=1560	56%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 164:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	44%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 171:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+0	=1560	56%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 171:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	44%
9/18Monday, Sept. 186:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–3	=1529	52%
9/18Monday, Sept. 186:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	48%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 196:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	52%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 196:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	48%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	52%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	48%
9/22Friday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	–3	=1513	49%
9/22Friday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+26	=1519	51%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 234:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	50%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 234:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	50%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 241:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	50%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 241:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	50%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–1	=1492	41%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+25	=1557	59%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	41%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	59%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	41%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	59%
9/29Friday, Sept. 296:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–2	=1491	49%
9/29Friday, Sept. 296:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+22	=1499	51%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 306:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	49%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 306:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	51%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	49%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	51%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
6/5Monday, June 56:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez (open)	1434	+0	–3	=1431	39%	6
6/5Monday, June 56:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1491	–6	+24	=1509	61%	9
6/4Sunday, June 41:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Blackburn	1395	+12	+0	=1407	32%	5
6/4Sunday, June 41:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1491	+22	+24	=1537	68%	7
6/3Saturday, June 34:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Medina	1397	+4	+0	=1401	37%	1
6/3Saturday, June 34:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Perez	1488	–18	+24	=1494	63%	12
6/2Friday, June 26:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Fujinami	1399	–13	–2	=1384	33%	0
6/2Friday, June 26:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1487	–5	+24	=1506	67%	4
6/1Thursday, June 11:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1535	+8	+0	=1543	54%	10
6/1Thursday, June 11:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1490	+3	+24	=1517	46%	1
5/31Wednesday, May 316:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1536	+3	+0	=1539	55%	1
5/31Wednesday, May 316:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1489	–8	+24	=1505	45%	2
5/30Tuesday, May 306:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Weathers	1533	–44	–1	=1488	43%	9
5/30Tuesday, May 306:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1491	+26	+22	=1539	57%	4
5/28Sunday, May 284:07 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Perez	1490	–21	+0	=1469	39%	2
5/28Sunday, May 284:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1514	+6	+24	=1544	61%	0
5/27Saturday, May 2710:07 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1487	–5	+0	=1482	36%	8
5/27Saturday, May 2710:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Ohtani	1516	+43	+24	=1583	64%	5
5/26Friday, May 269:38 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1485	+2	–3	=1484	42%	6
5/26Friday, May 269:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Detmers	1518	–4	+26	=1540	58%	2
5/25Thursday, May 253:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1486	–7	+0	=1479	48%	6
5/25Thursday, May 253:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1446	+21	+24	=1491	52%	7
5/24Wednesday, May 248:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1484	+27	+0	=1511	57%	10
5/24Wednesday, May 248:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Kauffmann	1448	–14	+24	=1458	43%	2
5/23Tuesday, May 238:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Perez	1485	–21	+0	=1464	49%	4
5/23Tuesday, May 238:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gomber	1447	–2	+24	=1469	51%	5
5/22Monday, May 228:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1486	–6	–3	=1477	52%	3
5/22Monday, May 228:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Anderson	1446	–3	+21	=1464	48%	5
5/21Sunday, May 214:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1487	+6	+0	=1493	47%	5
5/21Sunday, May 214:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Wood	1500	–7	+24	=1517	53%	7
5/20Saturday, May 204:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1486	–13	+0	=1473	39%	1
5/20Saturday, May 204:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1501	+23	+24	=1548	61%	0
5/19Friday, May 1910:15 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1487	+30	–4	=1513	48%	3
5/19Friday, May 1910:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	DeSclafani	1500	+2	+26	=1528	52%	4
5/18Thursday, May 181:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1442	+6	+0	=1448	45%	3
5/18Thursday, May 181:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Perez	1486	–25	+24	=1485	55%	5
5/17Wednesday, May 176:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1443	+12	+0	=1455	43%	3
5/17Wednesday, May 176:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1485	–6	+24	=1503	57%	4
5/16Tuesday, May 166:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1444	+8	–3	=1449	40%	4
5/16Tuesday, May 166:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1484	+6	+26	=1516	60%	5
5/14Sunday, May 141:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Weaver	1455	–6	+0	=1449	44%	1
5/14Sunday, May 141:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1483	–15	+24	=1492	56%	3
5/13Saturday, May 131:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Law (open)	1454	+1	+0	=1455	38%	6
5/13Saturday, May 131:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1484	+34	+24	=1542	62%	5
5/12Friday, May 126:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1452	+2	–3	=1451	45%	7
5/12Friday, May 126:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Perez	1486	–24	+22	=1484	55%	4
5/10Wednesday, May 103:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1485	–4	+0	=1481	41%	5
5/10Wednesday, May 103:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Kelly	1493	+23	+24	=1540	59%	4
5/9Tuesday, May 99:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1483	+5	+0	=1488	50%	6
5/9Tuesday, May 99:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Pfaadt	1495	–33	+24	=1486	50%	2
5/8Monday, May 89:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1484	–15	–4	=1465	35%	2
5/8Monday, May 89:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1494	+56	+24	=1574	65%	5
5/7Sunday, May 72:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1483	+31	+0	=1514	51%	5
5/7Sunday, May 72:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Wesneski	1498	–12	+24	=1510	49%	4
5/6Saturday, May 62:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Barnes	1484	–23	+0	=1461	41%	2
5/6Saturday, May 62:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1497	+4	+24	=1525	59%	4
5/5Friday, May 52:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1485	–4	–3	=1478	43%	1
5/5Friday, May 52:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1496	+9	+21	=1526	57%	4
5/4Thursday, May 44:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Dodd	1568	–39	+0	=1529	51%	6
5/4Thursday, May 44:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1487	+7	+24	=1518	49%	3
5/3Wednesday, May 36:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1566	–10	+0	=1556	56%	14
5/3Wednesday, May 36:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1490	–3	+24	=1511	44%	6
5/2Tuesday, May 26:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1563	–6	–3	=1554	51%	6
5/2Tuesday, May 26:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1492	+31	+26	=1549	49%	0
4/30Sunday, April 3012:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1500	+11	+0	=1511	55%	3
4/30Sunday, April 3012:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hoeing	1491	–41	+24	=1474	45%	4
4/29Saturday, April 294:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Kilian	1500	–41	+0	=1459	43%	6
4/29Saturday, April 294:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1490	–8	+24	=1506	57%	7
4/28Friday, April 286:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1501	+15	–3	=1513	50%	2
4/28Friday, April 286:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1489	+4	+21	=1514	50%	3
4/27Thursday, April 2712:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1487	–6	+0	=1481	37%	5
4/27Thursday, April 2712:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1563	–10	+24	=1577	63%	4
4/26Wednesday, April 267:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1488	+33	+0	=1521	41%	4
4/26Wednesday, April 267:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1562	+1	+24	=1587	59%	6
4/25Tuesday, April 257:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hoeing	1489	–38	+0	=1451	33%	4
4/25Tuesday, April 257:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1561	–9	+24	=1576	67%	7
4/24Monday, April 247:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1491	–5	–3	=1483	33%	0
4/24Monday, April 247:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1559	+25	+24	=1608	67%	11
4/23Sunday, April 231:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1493	+7	+0	=1500	47%	4
4/23Sunday, April 231:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Allen	1524	–30	+24	=1518	53%	7
4/22Saturday, April 228:15 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1492	–10	+0	=1482	44%	3
4/22Saturday, April 228:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1526	–27	+24	=1523	56%	2
4/22Saturday, April 223:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Smeltzer	1489	–19	+2	=1472	34%	6
4/22Saturday, April 223:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1529	+33	+28	=1590	66%	1
4/19Wednesday, April 191:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cobb	1500	+5	+0	=1505	51%	5
4/19Wednesday, April 191:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1490	–15	+24	=1499	49%	2
4/18Tuesday, April 186:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Wood	1502	–9	+0	=1493	48%	2
4/18Tuesday, April 186:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1489	–6	+24	=1507	52%	4
4/17Monday, April 176:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1503	+14	–1	=1516	49%	3
4/17Monday, April 176:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1488	+9	+24	=1521	51%	4
4/16Sunday, April 161:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1488	+43	+0	=1531	48%	5
4/16Sunday, April 161:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1490	+34	+24	=1548	52%	0
4/15Saturday, April 154:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Nelson	1489	–3	+0	=1486	48%	2
4/15Saturday, April 154:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1489	–12	+24	=1501	52%	3
4/14Friday, April 146:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Bumgarner	1491	–31	–2	=1458	45%	1
4/14Friday, April 146:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1488	–18	+23	=1493	55%	5
4/12Wednesday, April 124:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1486	–7	+0	=1479	36%	3
4/12Wednesday, April 124:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1526	+28	+24	=1578	64%	2
4/11Tuesday, April 116:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1484	+11	+0	=1495	40%	8
4/11Tuesday, April 116:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1528	+16	+24	=1568	60%	4
4/10Monday, April 106:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1488	+43	–1	=1530	51%	3
4/10Monday, April 106:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Strahm	1524	–28	+24	=1520	49%	15
4/9Sunday, April 91:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1485	–14	+0	=1471	39%	7
4/9Sunday, April 91:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Carrasco	1549	–22	+24	=1551	61%	2
4/8Saturday, April 84:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1486	–20	+0	=1466	38%	2
4/8Saturday, April 84:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1548	–23	+24	=1549	62%	5
4/7Friday, April 71:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1488	–7	–1	=1480	40%	3
4/7Friday, April 71:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1546	–22	+23	=1547	60%	9
4/5Wednesday, April 51:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Lopez	1527	+3	+0	=1530	52%	2
4/5Wednesday, April 51:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1486	+5	+24	=1515	48%	5
4/4Tuesday, April 46:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1528	+3	+0	=1531	47%	0
4/4Tuesday, April 46:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1485	+40	+24	=1549	53%	1
4/3Monday, April 36:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Mahle	1525	+1	–3	=1523	52%	11
4/3Monday, April 36:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cueto	1488	–5	+24	=1507	48%	1
4/2Sunday, April 21:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1552	–31	+0	=1521	54%	5
4/2Sunday, April 21:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1490	–19	+24	=1495	46%	1
4/1Saturday, April 14:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1550	–25	+0	=1525	52%	6
4/1Saturday, April 14:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1492	–6	+24	=1510	48%	2
3/31Friday, March 316:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1552	–20	+0	=1532	52%	1
3/31Friday, March 316:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1491	+2	+24	=1517	48%	2
3/30Thursday, March 304:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Scherzer	1550	+31	–3	=1578	53%	5
3/30Thursday, March 304:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1492	+40	+24	=1556	47%	3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.